regular tables exist adapted to all cases; and there can be no
doubt that those who have realized large fortunes by horse-racing
managed to do so by
uniformlyacting on some such principles, as
well as by availing themselves of such 'valuable information' as
may be secured, before events come off, by those who make
horse-racing their business.
The same
system was
applied, and with still greater
precision, to
Cock-fighting, to Lotteries, Raffles, Backgammon, Cribbage, Put,
All Fours, and Whist, showing all the chances of
holding any
particular card or cards. Thus, it is 2 to 1 that your
partnerhas not one certain card; 17 to 2 that he has not two certain
cards; 31 to 26 that he has not one of them only; and 32 to 25
(or 5 to 4) that he has one or both--that is, when two cards are
in question. It is 31 to 1 that he has three certain cards; 7 to
2 that he has not two; 7 to 6 that he has not one; 13 to 6 that
he has either one or two; 5 to 2 that he has one, two, or three
cards; that is, when three cards are in question.
With regard to the
dealer and his
partner, it is 57,798 to 7176
(better than 8 to 1) that they are not four by honours; it is
32,527 to 32,448 (or about an even bet) that they are not two by
honours; it is 36,924 to 25,350 (or 11 to 7 nearly) that the
honours count; it is 42,237 to 22,737 (or 15 to 8 nearly) that
the
dealer is nothing by honours.[55]
[55] Proctor, The Sportsman's Sure Guide. Lond. A.D. 1733.
Such is a general
sketch of the large subject included under the
term of the
calculation of probabilities, which comprises not
only the chances of games of
hazard, insurances, lotteries, &c.,
but also the
determination of future events from observations
made
relative to events of the same nature. This subject of
inquiry dates only from the 17th century, and occupied the minds
of Pascal, Huygens, Fermot, Bernouilli, Laplace, Fourier,
Lacroix, Poisson, De Moivre; and in more modern times, Cournot,
Quetelet, and Professor De Morgan.
In the matter of betting, or in estimating the 'odds' in betting,
of course an
acquaintance with the method must be of some
service, and there can be no doubt that
professional gamesters
endeavoured to master the subject.
M. Robert-Houdin, in his
amusing work, Les Tricheries des Grecs
devoilees, has propounded some gaming axioms which are at least
curious and interesting; they are presented as those of a
professionalgambler and cheat.
1. 'Every game of chance presents two kinds of chances which are
very distinct,--
namely, those relating to the person interested,
that is, the
player; and those
inherent in the
combinations of
the game.'
In the former there is what must be called, for the want of a
better name, 'good luck' or 'bad luck,' that is, some mysterious
cause which at times gives the play a 'run' of good or bad luck;
in the latter there is the entire
doctrine of 'probabilities'
aforesaid, which, according to M. Houdin's gaming hero, may be
completely discarded for the following axiom:--
2. 'If chance can bring into the game all possible
combinations,
there are,
nevertheless, certain limits at which it seems to
stop. Such, for
instance, as a certain number turning up ten
times in
succession at Roulette. This is possible, but it has
never happened.'
Nevertheless a most
remarkable fact is on record. In 1813, a Mr
Ogden betted 1000
guineas to ONE
guinea, that
calling seven as
the main, the caster would not throw that number ten times
successively. Wonderful to relate! the caster threw seven nine
times following. Thereupon Mr Ogden offered him 470
guineas to
be off the bet--which he refused. The caster took the box again
and threw nine,--and so Mr Ogden won his
guinea![56] In this
case there seems to have been no
suspicionwhatever of unfair
dice being used.
[56] Seymour Harcourt, The Gaming Calendar.
3. 'In a game of chance, the oftener the same
combination has
occurred in
succession, the nearer we are to the
certainty that
it will not recur at the next cast or turn up. This is the most
elementary of the theories on probabilities; it is termed the
MATURITY OF THE CHANCES.'
'Hence,' according to this great authority, 'a
player must come
to the table not only "in luck," but he must not risk his money
excepting at the
instant prescribed by the rules of the
maturityof the chances.'
Founded on this theory we have the following precepts for
gamesters:--
1. 'For gaming, prefer Roulette, because it presents several
ways of staking your money[57]--which permits the study of
several.
[57] 'Pair,
impair, passe, manque, and the 38 numbers of the
Roulette, besides the different
combinations of POSITION' and
'maturities' together.
2. 'A
player should approach the gaming table
perfectly calm and
cool--just as a merchant or
tradesman in treaty about any affair.
If he gets into a
passion, it is all over with
prudence, all over
with good luck--for the demon of bad luck
invariably pursues a
passionate
player.
3. 'Every man who finds a pleasure in playing runs the risk of
losing.
4. 'A
prudentplayer, before
undertaking anything, should put
himself to the test to discover if he is "in vein"--in luck. In
all doubt, you should abstain.'
I remember a curious
incident in my
childhood, which seems much
to the point of this axiom. A
magnificent gold watch and chain
were given towards the building of a church, and my mother took
three chances, which were at a very high figure, the watch and
chain being valued at more than L100. One of these chances was
entered in my name, one in my brother's, and the third in my
mother's. I had to throw for her as well as myself. My brother
threw an
insignificant figure; for myself I did the same; but,
oddly enough, I refused to throw for my mother on
finding that I
had lost my chance,
saying that I should wait a little longer--
rather a curious piece of
prudence for a child of thirteen. The
raffle was with three dice; the majority of the chances had been
thrown, and 34 was the highest. After declining to throw I went
on throwing the dice for
amusement, and was surprised to find
that every throw was better than the one I had in the raffle. I
thereupon said--'Now I'll throw for mamma.' I threw thirty-six,
which won the watch! My mother had been a large
subscriber to
the building of the church, and the
priest said that my winning
the watch for her was quite PROVIDENTIAL. According to M.
Houdin's authority, however, it seems that I only got into
'vein'--but how I came to pause and defer throwing the last
chance, has always puzzled me
respecting this
incident of my
childhood, which made too great an
impression ever to be effaced.
5. 'There are persons who are
constantly pursued by bad luck.
To such I say--NEVER PLAY.
6. 'Stubborness at play is ruin.
7. 'Remember that Fortune does not like people to be overjoyed
at her favours, and that she prepares bitter deceptions for the
im
prudent, who are intoxicated by success.'
Such are the chief axioms of a most
experienced gamester, and M.
Houdin sums up the whole into the following:--
8. 'Before risking your money at play, you must deeply study
your "vein" and the different probabilities of the game--termed
the
maturity of the chances.'
M. Robert-Houdin got all this precious information from a
gamester named Raymond. It appears that the first meeting
between him and this man was at a subscription-ball, where the