酷兔英语


Jim Miekka has never worked on Wall Street and doesn't hold any financial degrees. But he has suddenly developed a cultlike following among some investors.


吉姆•米耶卡(Jim Miekka)从来没有在华尔街工作过,也没有拿过任何金融类文凭。但突然之间,他就成了一些投资者狂热崇拜的对象。



The 50-year-old newsletter writer is in big demand these days because of a technical market indicator he devised to predict stock-market crashes. Dubbed the 'Hindenburg Omen' after the 1937 disaster of a German passenger airship, the indicator has been the buzz of talk shows, blogs and news articles after developing a following on trading floors from New York to London.


这位50岁的简报作者在这些日子里受到热捧,都因为他发明了一个预测股市崩盘的市场指标。这个指标根据1937年德国一架乘用飞艇发生的空难而命名为"兴登堡凶兆"。从纽约到伦敦,"兴登堡凶兆"赢得了场内交易员的普遍推崇,于是成了电视脱口秀、博客和新闻报道中的热门话题。



The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 2.5% since the indicator was triggered the first of three times on Aug. 12. The market action has turned Miekka, a blind former high-school physics teacher, into a reluctant celebrity.


"兴登堡凶兆"迄今已经被触发三次,第一次是在8月12日,自那以来,道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)已下跌2.5%。这种走势让曾经是高中体育教师的盲人米耶卡一夜成名,尽管他自己并不愿意光环加身。



'I guess it feels good to be famous,' Miekka says from his home in Surry, Maine. 'But at the same time, I wonder how the indicator is going to work in the future with all this attention.'


米耶卡在他位于缅因州Surry的家中说,我觉得出名的感觉很好,但在获得这么多关注的情况下,这个指标将来表现会怎么样,我表示怀疑。



(This story and relatedbackground material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)


米耶卡的"兴登堡凶兆"采用了一个代入纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)52周股价水平和移动平均值的公式,另外的标准还包括纽约证交所10周移动平均值上升、一个衡量市场波动性的技术指标呈现为负面。所有这些标准都必须同一天达到才形成"兴登堡凶兆"。



Miekka devised the indicator using a formula that parses data including 52-week stock levels and moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange. Other criteria include a rising 10-week NYSE moving average and a negativetechnical indicator that measures market fluctuations. All these gauges must occur simultaneously on the same day to trigger the Hindenburg Omen.


一些人觉得这不过是哗众取宠。华尔街交易员持怀疑态度,因为自米耶卡1995年发明以来,"兴登堡凶兆"被触发而股市并未出现重大下跌行情的情况屡见不鲜。事实上,股市大幅下跌前出现"兴登堡凶兆"的情况只占了大约25%。



To some, it sounds like little more than hocus-pocus. Wall Street traders are skeptical, considering that the indicator has been triggered many times since Miekka devised it in 1995 without an ensuing major market selloff. Indeed, significant stock-market declines have followed the indicator just 25% of the time.


兴登堡凶兆受到如此热捧,时值市场不确定性越来越大,预测各异。投资者利用技术图表把握市场方向的倾向已经越来越强烈,特别是在股市一直看不出趋势的时候。



The Hindenburg following comes amid growing uncertainty in the markets and widely disparate forecasts. Investors have shown an increasing inclination to turn to charts in search of clues about the market's direction, especially as stocks continue to lack direction.


宾夕法尼亚大学(University of Pennsylvania)沃顿商学院(Wharton School of Business)金融学教授西格尔(Jeremy Siegel)说,人们是在病急乱投医,一直在找某个"百晓生"似的人物。



'People are grasping at straws and always looking for someone who might have all the answers,' says Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.


在线量化分析公司Fusion IQ首席执行长瑞索兹(Barry Ritholtz)说,兴登堡凶兆是一种不考虑因果关系的后顾性指标。他把它叫做"衰退期色情"(recession porn),说在人心惶惶的市场环境中,投资者会被负面言论和阴谋论所诱惑。



Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of Fusion IQ, an online quantitative-research firm, says the Hindenburg Omen is a backward-looking indicator that doesn't consider causation. He labels it 'recession porn,' contending that investors are attracted to negativecommentary and conspiracy theories during skittish markets.


米耶卡对这些担心不以为然。他警告说,兴登堡凶兆中的三个具体指征在本月的出现不是好兆头,更何况连续出现往往预示着股市跌幅更深。他说,市场有可能相比两周前第一次出现指征的时候下跌20%。



Miekka brushes off such concerns. He warns that the trio of Hindenburg Omen appearances this month doesn't bode well, especially since a cluster of occurrences tends to lead to more significant declines. He said it is possible the market could drop 20% from the first sighting two weeks ago.


米耶卡说,这就像是一朵漏斗云,并不是每一朵漏斗云都带来风暴,但现在我们看到了好几朵漏斗云,所以我肯定觉得我是要呆在防风地窖里了。



'It's like a funnel cloud,' Miekka says. 'You don't get a storm with every funnel cloud, but now that we're seeing several funnel clouds, I definitely think I want to stay in the storm cellar.'


涉足股市之前,米耶卡在马萨诸塞州一处矿山做实险时受伤。当时他想研究出一种更好的办法来从岩石中提取矿物质,研究过程中发生了爆炸,后来做眼部手术时因为并发症失明。他说,进入手术室里看到的视力表就是我看见的最后一样东西。



Miekka's foray into stocks began after he was injured while conducting experiments at a Massachusetts mine, where he was trying to find a better way to extract minerals from rock. There was an explosion from chemicals he was working with, and he was blinded by complications during an ensuing eye operation. 'The last thing I saw was the eye chart going into surgery,' he said.


米耶卡说,康复之后,他开始收听主要谈投资的电视节目,并开始拿出自己的钱积极地投资于股市。



As he recuperated, Miekka said he began listening to television shows that focused on investing, and began actively putting his money into the market.


他在1989年开发了自己的第一个交易"系统",现在正在开发其他一系列指标,其中有一个短线五日买入信号,是以两个市场指数过去25日的走势为基础的。



He came up with his first trading 'system' in 1989. Now, he is working on a number of other indicators, such as a short-term, five-day buy signal based on the trading patterns of two market averages over the past 25 days.


米耶卡的简报名叫"Sudbury Bull & Bear Report"(萨德伯里牛熊报告)。他说,他最新的一个指标非常有效。但他不肯透露指标的名字和相关指数的名称。



Miekka, who publishes the 'Sudbury Bull & Bear Report,' said his newest indicator has been 'very effective.' But he is keeping the indicator's name and the names of the averages to himself.


市场指标还不是米耶卡唯一的发明。他说,他还开发了人工视觉技术,在此帮助下,他借助声音可以比任何视力正常的枪手都能更好地瞄准标靶。他能够在100码的距离击中全美步枪协会(National Rifle Association)标准的标靶,本周还在200码的距离射中了一只保龄球瓶。



Market indicators aren't his only inventions. He also says he created artificial-vision technology that uses sounds to help him identify targets better than any sighted shooters. He can hit a National Rifle Association target at 100 yards, and this week he hit a bowling pin at 200 yards.


米耶卡还为总部位于佛罗里达州Hernando的组织"失明美国人"(Blind Americans)帮忙。他从该组织的总部徒步130英里走到圣彼德斯堡(St. Petersburg),为之募集资金3,000多美元。期间借助了一种全球定位系统和他的导盲犬佐伊(Zoey),用时一个半星期,一路上只走了几次弯路。



He also helps the Florida-based organization Blind Americans. Miekka raised more than $3,000 for the organization by walking 130 miles from its headquarters in Hernando to St. Petersburg. He used a global positioning system and his guide dog, Zoey, and completed the walk in a week and a half, with just a few bumps along the way.


他说,我确实拐错了几次弯,但我总是能够纠正过来。



'I did make a few wrong turns, but I was always able to straighten it out,' he says.


虽然兴登堡凶兆引起了轰动,但他的投资简报名气不响,只有100名订户,远不如兴登堡凶兆出名。



Despite the publicity surrounding the Hindenburg Omen, his obscure investment newsletter, which has just 100 subscribers, hasn't fared quite as well.


他说,差不多是五个或七个人来打听,只有一个人成为订户。



He says: 'I've gotten maybe five or seven inquiries and one subscriber.'


Steven Russolillo / Tomi Kilgore
  • financial [fi´nænʃəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.金融的,财政的 (初中英语单词)
  • writer [´raitə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.作者;作家 (初中英语单词)
  • disaster [di´zɑ:stə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.灾难,不幸 (初中英语单词)
  • industrial [in´dʌstriəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.工业的,产业的 (初中英语单词)
  • background [´bækgraund] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.背景;经历;幕后 (初中英语单词)
  • available [ə´veiləbəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.可用的;有效的 (初中英语单词)
  • journal [´dʒə:nəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.日记;日报;杂志 (初中英语单词)
  • finance [´fainæns] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.财政;金融 vt.资助 (初中英语单词)
  • executive [ig´zekjutiv] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.行政的 n.行政官 (初中英语单词)
  • cluster [´klʌstə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.一串 v.群集;丛生 (初中英语单词)
  • definitely [´definitli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.明确地;绝对 (初中英语单词)
  • working [´wə:kiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.工人的;劳动的 (初中英语单词)
  • identify [ai´dentifai] 移动到这儿单词发声 vt.认出;鉴定;验明 (初中英语单词)
  • headquarters [´hed,kwɔ:təz] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.总部(署),司令部 (初中英语单词)
  • system [´sistəm] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.系统,体系,制度 (初中英语单词)
  • investment [in´vestmənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.投资;(时间等)投入 (初中英语单词)
  • technical [´teknikəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.技术的;专门性的 (高中英语单词)
  • predict [pri´dikt] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.预言;预告;预示 (高中英语单词)
  • related [ri´leitid] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.叙述的;有联系的 (高中英语单词)
  • formula [´fɔ:mjulə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.公式;配方;原则 (高中英语单词)
  • negative [´negətiv] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.否定的 n.否定词 (高中英语单词)
  • significant [sig´nifikənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.重要的;意义重大的 (高中英语单词)
  • inclination [,inkli´neiʃən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.倾斜;爱好;天资 (高中英语单词)
  • conspiracy [kən´spirəsi] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.密谋;协同作用 (高中英语单词)
  • seeing [si:iŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 see的现在分词 n.视觉 (高中英语单词)
  • extract [ik´strækt, ´ekstrækt] 移动到这儿单词发声 vt.取出;摘录 n.精华 (高中英语单词)
  • explosion [ik´spləuʒən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.爆炸;爆发;发作 (高中英语单词)
  • straighten [´streitn] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.弄直;矫正;整理 (高中英语单词)
  • surrounding [sə´raundiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.周围的事物 (高中英语单词)
  • airship [´eə,ʃip] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.飞艇,飞船 (英语四级单词)
  • reluctant [ri´lʌktənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.勉强的;难得到的 (英语四级单词)
  • simultaneously [,siməl´teinjəsli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.同时,一起 (英语四级单词)
  • considering [kən´sidəriŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 prep.就...而论 (英语四级单词)
  • uncertainty [ʌn´sə:tənti] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.不可靠;不确定的事 (英语四级单词)
  • commentary [´kɔməntəri] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.评论;评注;解说词 (英语四级单词)
  • trying [´traiiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.难堪的;费劲的 (英语四级单词)
  • actively [´æktivli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.活跃地,积极地 (英语四级单词)
  • gotten [´gɔtn] 移动到这儿单词发声 get的过去分词 (英语四级单词)
  • trigger [´trigə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.扳机 vt.触发,启动 (英语六级单词)
  • funnel [´fʌnəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.漏斗;通气道 v.集中 (英语六级单词)