酷兔英语


Out of the quest to accurately describe hybrid concepts came the spork, brunch, pluot and mule. One investor's struggle to characterize the U.S. stock market's recent twists and turns led to new market terminology.


华尔街日报》──要想把股市的两面性准确描述出来,几乎是件不可能完成的任务,有人说它像多用勺叉,像早中餐,像杏李,像骡子。其中有一位投资者试图总结美国股市近期的曲折迂回的努力产生出了一个新的股市术语──欢迎来到"狼"市 ('wolf' market) 。



Welcome to the 'wolf' market.


这个术语的缔造者,美国BGC Financial投资公司首席全球策略师、金融衍生工具研究主管迈克尔·普尔夫斯(Michael Purves)说,狼市的特点是窄幅震荡、波动增加、股票相关性高、反转快。他说,锯齿状的指数震荡提高了投资者依据基本面选股的难度,使短期期权和技术分析成为把握反弹机会的更好工具。



The wolf market is characterized by a tight trading range, increased volatility, high stock correlations and quick reversals, said its coiner, Michael Purves, chief global strategist and head of derivatives research at BGC Financial. Choppy trading makes it hard to pick stocks based on fundamental qualities, leaving shorter-term options and technicalanalysis better tools for navigating its bounces, he said.


普尔夫斯说,"一天晚上,我走过一个街角时突然想,应该以另一种动物来描述目前的股市状态。与牛和熊相比,狼的体型更小,但动作迅速,决断果敢。"



'I was walking around the block one night and thought, you know, we need another animal,' Mr. Purves said. 'A wolf is clearly a smaller animal than a bull or a bear, but it's very quick and decisive.'


普尔夫斯认为,美国股市自2010年4月下旬进入了狼市,而引发狼市的根源要更早一些。股市自2008年3月的低点后大幅上扬,投资者预期经济会以一个尚未实现的较快速度复苏,并把这个预期纳入股价之中。受到近期欧洲主权债务危机、经济数据缺乏亮点以及美国企业二季度财报振奋人心等因素的综合影响,市场一直在努力寻找前进的方向,从而导致交易区间收窄,股价波动加剧。



Mr. Purves dates the start of the wolf market to late April although its origins reach further back, he said. In the rally from the March 2008 lows, investors priced in expectations of a faster recovery than has yet materialized. The market has struggled to find direction, balancing the drag from the late spring European sovereign-debt crisis and the recent slew of lackluster economic data with the more encouraging second-quarter earnings. That has left trading trapped in a tight range, subject to sharp ups and downs.


从熊市角度来看,普尔夫斯认为标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500)到今年年底也无法突破4月份1225的高点。



On the bearish side, Mr. Purves doubts the Standard & Poor's 500 index will be able to break above its April high of 1225 by the end of the year.


但从牛市角度来看,普尔夫斯预计二季度上市公司的强劲盈利以及中国等发展中经济体的需求将使标普500指数的低点维持在1010点附近。与此同时,芝加哥期权交易所市场波动率指数(CBOE Market Volatility index,简称VIX)──也就是市场的恐慌指标──很可能超乎正常状态地保持在25到35的区间。2010年8月20日周五,该指数收于25.49。



But bulls can point to strong second-quarter earnings and demand from growing economies such as China, keeping a floor around 1010 in the S&P 500, he predicted. Meanwhile, the CBOE Market Volatility index -- the market's fear gauge -- is likely to stay elevated between 25 and 35 for longer than normal. The VIX closed Friday at 25.49.


当然,8月份的成交量清淡加剧了市场的波动性。8月23日的交易量为本年最低,而且在9月前很可能无望有太大增长。



Of course, low volume during August trading has exacerbated market swings. Monday's trading volume was the lowest of the year and isn't likely to substantially increase until September.


Banyan Partners公司首席市场策略师罗伯特·帕弗里克(Robert Pavlik)说,"目前市场处于试探阶段,而且正值8月份的度假高峰期,交易非常清淡。很显然,我们已经从经济衰退中走出来,但人们还是有点草木皆兵。"



'This is a market that's trying to feel its way and it's feeling its way during an extremely slow period in which many folks are out on vacation,' said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners. 'We've obviously exited the recession, but people are still nervous about the conditions.'


普尔夫斯表示,在宏观经济因素主宰股市的情况下,各类股票同涨同跌的相关性很高,导致投资者对于技术分析更加依赖。一方面来说,"算法交易"(algorithmic trading)的日趋流行增加了市场动向与技术指标的相关性。另一方面,在利率接近零的市场环境下,对企业的现金流分析变得更加困难。



With stocks trading closely together as macroeconomic issues dominate the market, investors are relying more heavily on technicalanalysis, Mr. Purves said. In part, the rise of algorithmic trading already has made the market's moves more closely tied to technical triggers. Also, an environment where interest rates are close to zero makes cash-flow analysis of companies difficult.


普尔夫斯说,"在没有其它因素渗入的情况下,技术面的影响将会变大。"他建议投资者利用期权工具在不确定的市场中进行短期押注。



'In the absence of something else, technicals loom larger,' Mr. Purves said. He also advocates turning to options to make shorter-term bets in a murky market.


至少在经济复苏步伐加快或股市在另一种催化剂的推动下重新找到立足点之前,狼市状态可能还会持续下去。普尔夫斯认为,狼市将会延续到2011年。



The wolf market may be here to stay, at least until the economic recovery accelerates or another catalyst prompts the market to find footing. Mr. Purves believes the wolf market will last into 2011.


普尔夫斯说,"可能需要一段很长的时间,才能回到那种传统的经济周期。"



'It's going to take a long time to reverse to a classic economic cycle,' he said.


Kristina Peterson



Kristina Peterson
  • welcome [´welkəm] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.受欢迎的;可喜的 (初中英语单词)
  • research [ri´sə:tʃ] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&vi.调查;探究;研究 (初中英语单词)
  • financial [fi´nænʃəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.金融的,财政的 (初中英语单词)
  • fundamental [,fʌndə´mentl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.基本的 n.原理 (初中英语单词)
  • analysis [ə´næləsis] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.分解;分析(结果) (初中英语单词)
  • european [juərə´pi:ən] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.欧洲的 n.欧洲人 (初中英语单词)
  • meanwhile [´mi:n´wail] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&ad.其间;同时 (初中英语单词)
  • normal [´nɔ:məl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.正规的 n.正常状态 (初中英语单词)
  • volume [´vɔlju:m, ´vɑljəm] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.卷;书籍;体积;容量 (初中英语单词)
  • extremely [ik´stri:mli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.极端地;非常地 (初中英语单词)
  • obviously [´ɔbviəsli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.明显地;显而易见地 (初中英语单词)
  • nervous [´nə:vəs] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.神经的;神经过敏的 (初中英语单词)
  • absence [´æbsəns] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.不在,缺席;缺乏 (初中英语单词)
  • reverse [ri´və:s] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.颠倒;(使)反向 (初中英语单词)
  • technical [´teknikəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.技术的;专门性的 (高中英语单词)
  • recovery [ri´kʌvəri] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.重获;获得;恢复 (高中英语单词)
  • crisis [´kraisis] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.转折点;危机 (高中英语单词)
  • dominate [´dɔmineit] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.统治;控制;俯视 (高中英语单词)
  • environment [in´vaiərənmənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.郊区;周围;条件 (高中英语单词)
  • classic [´klæsik] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.第一流的 n.杰作 (高中英语单词)
  • accurately [´ækjuritli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.准确地;精密地 (英语四级单词)
  • characterize [´kæriktəraiz] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.描绘;具有...特征 (英语四级单词)
  • trying [´traiiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.难堪的;费劲的 (英语四级单词)
  • hybrid [´haibrid] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.杂种;混合物 (英语六级单词)
  • earnings [´ə:niŋz] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.收益;报酬;获得 (英语六级单词)
  • august [ɔ:´gʌst] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.尊严的;威严的 (英语六级单词)
  • substantially [səb´stænʃəli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.大体上;本质上 (英语六级单词)
  • footing [´futiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.立脚点;基础;地位 (英语六级单词)