NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Which country's stock market has been the best
performer in the world -- not just over the past year or
decade, but over the last 110 years?
哪个国家的股市在全球范围内表现最好?──不仅仅是过去的一年或十年,而是在过去的110年里。
It's Australia, which stands above all others in its
combination of higher returns and lower volatility.
答案是:澳大利亚──高回报率和低波动性让澳大利亚股市脱颍而出。
While they speak our language, and we have some common origins, they have hitched their wagon to the dynamic growth of Asia. And it's paid off, as Australia has had the best performing stock market in the world from 1900 to 2009.
尽管澳大利亚人和美国人讲着同样的语言口有着共同的祖先,但他们却搭上了亚洲蓬勃发展的便车。这样做也取得了回报口澳大利亚是1900年到2009年全球表现最好的股市。
Australia posted 7.5% after-inflation returns per year during that time, with a standard deviation of 18.2%, according to a study from Credit Suisse. Those returns are the highest and the volatility the second lowest of the 19 major markets the
researchers studied.
根据瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的一项研究,澳大利亚股市在此期间扣除通胀因素后的年回报率达7.5%,标准差为18.2%。在研究人员考察的19个主要股市中,澳大利亚股市的回报率最高,而波幅则是第二低的。
During that time, U.S. stocks made a 6.2% return, with a standard deviation of 20.4%. That means
investors would have made more money in Australian stocks with less volatility than in the U.S. or any other major market over that long stretch.
在此期间,美国股市的回报率为6.2%,标准差为20.4%。这意味着在这段相当长的历史时期内,投资者在澳大利亚股市可以比在美国和其它任何主要市场赚到更多的钱,同时承受更小的波动。
Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School, three of the world's leading authorities on long-term
performance of various asset classes, conducted the study for Credit Suisse. It included 19
mostly developed-world markets but not the BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- or other emerging markets.
伦敦商学院(London Business School)的埃尔罗伊口迪姆森(Elroy Dimson)口保罗口马什(Paul Marsh)和麦克口斯丹顿(Mike Staunton)是三名研究不同资产类别长期表现的世界级权威,他们为瑞士信贷实施了该项研究。研究对象涵盖了19个大多为发达国家的市场,但其中不包括金砖四国──巴西口俄罗斯口印度和中国──以及其它的新兴市场。
'A common
factor among the best-performing
equity markets over the last 110 years is that they tended to be resource-rich and/or new world countries,' the
researchers write.
他们表示,"过去110年以来表现优异的股票市场有一个共同点,那就是它们往往是资源丰富并且/或者是新世界国家。"
Australia has tons of coal, iron ore, uranium, zinc,
nickel, and gold. It produces oil and natural gas, but oil imports are growing. It also grows wheat and other grains. In recent
decades, the country has moved away from its Anglo-Saxon roots and embraced Asia, its rapidly growing next-door neighbor.
澳大利亚煤口铁矿石口铀口锌口镍和黄金的储量都相当丰富,还出产石油和天然气,但目前其石油进口量正在不断攀升。澳大利亚还种植小麦和其它谷物。近几十年来,澳大利亚离它的盎格鲁-撒克逊(Anglo-Saxon)根脉渐行渐远,转而投向了高速发展的近邻──亚洲的怀抱。
That has paid off big time. Half of the country's exports now go to Asia, and China is its biggest trading
partner. So, Australia's
economy and markets have
ridden China's coattails to
prosperity.
这样做已经收到了丰厚的回报。澳大利亚如今有一半的出口涌入亚洲,中国是它最大的贸易伙伴。因此,澳大利亚的经济和股市搭着中国的经济快车实现了繁荣。
During the
so-called 'lost
decade' of the 2000s, when U.S. stocks lost ground, Australian equities earned real returns of 5.5% a year, third behind South Africa and Norway among the 19 major markets tracked.
在21世纪初所谓的"失去的十年"里,美国股市一蹶不振,而澳大利亚股票市场每年的实际回报率却达到了5.5%,在全球19个主要股市中位列第三,仅次于南非和挪威。
Mining, of course, was a big
factor during the 10-year commodities supercycle, as
investor Jim Rogers calls it. Indeed, two of the biggest stocks in the Standard & Poor's ASX 200 index are miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.
在为期十年的大宗商品"超级周期"──投资家吉姆口罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)冠以此名──中,采矿业毫无疑问发挥了主要作用。实际上,标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)/ASX 200指数中市值最大的两只股票就是必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)两个矿业巨头。
But a sound
bankingsystem was at least as important. Like Canada, Australia has only a
handful of big banks that kept their noses clean before the
crisis, largely eschewing toxic securities.
但是,一个健全的银行系统至少也是同样重要的。和加拿大一样,澳大利亚只有少数几家大型银行在金融危机爆发前保持着清白之身,这在很大程度上帮助澳大利亚规避开了"有毒"证券资产。
'Our banks are very straightforward,' says Philip Baker, an editor at the Australian Financial Review. And they have a zero-tolerance
policy towards deadbeats.
《澳大利亚金融评论报》(Australian Financial Review)编辑菲利普口贝克(Philip Baker)表示,"我们的银行是非常严格的。"它们对坏账采取了零容忍政策。
'We can't just give the keys back to the banks,' he says. 'The banks come after us and take the shirts off our backs [if we don't pay].'
他说,"我们不能只是把房子的钥匙还给银行,(如果我们不还款,)银行会追踪我们,拿走我们的所有东西。"
No wonder Australia's Big Four banks are among the world's best
performers, with elite AA credit ratings.
难怪澳大利亚的四大银行都在全球最佳表现银行之列,信用等级也都是AA级。
So, it's no surprise Australia sailed through the
crisisvirtually unscathed. The
economy showed only one quarter of
negative gross
domestic product growth -- short of a
commonly used
definition of a recession. Unemployment peaked at 5.7% and now sits at 5.3%. President Obama would kill for those numbers.
正因如此,澳大利亚毫发无损地度过这场危机也就不足为奇了。澳大利亚经济仅在一个季度里出现了GDP的负增长──这还称不上通常意义上的经济衰退。失业率一度高达5.7%,但现在下降到了5.3%。这样的数据会让奥巴马总统兴奋得发狂。
And so would Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke. Zero interest rates? Quantitative easing? Australia's central bank has already raised rates six times since late last year. Although the hikes have paused, they may resume, as a
recovery appears to be well underway.
美联储 (Federal Reserve)主席本口伯南克(Ben Bernanke)也会为此心襟荡漾。零利率?量化宽松政策?从去年年底开始,澳大利亚央行已经6次提高了利率。尽管利率上调已经告一段落,但随着经济复苏迹象逐步显现,上调可能再次开始。
Meanwhile, Australia's
budgetdeficit should peak at just over 4.2% of gross
domestic product and may hit surpluses again soon. Australia has one of the world's lowest ratios of public debt to GDP -- less than 18%, according to the Central Intelligence Agency. Ours is headed for 100%.
与此同时,澳大利亚的预算赤字至多仅曾略高于GDP的4.2%,而且可能很快将再次出现预算盈余。根据中央情报局(Central Intelligence Agency)的数据,澳大利亚是全球国债占GDP比重最低的国家之一──不足18%,而美国的这一比重已接近100%。
Of course, that makes the Aussie dollar more appealing, although it has tumbled from the highs set in 2008. Recently
nervous traders have sold the
currency amid fears about the global
economy. Yet it remains among the world's stalwarts.
当然,这让澳元拥有了更强的吸引力,尽管它已经较2008年的高点大幅下跌。最近有紧张的交易者出于对全球经济的担心卖掉了手中的澳元。但是,澳元仍是世界上最为坚挺的货币之一。
Can Australia's stellar
performance continue? Probably, but there are some clouds.
澳大利亚是否可以延续它的优异表现?有可能,但也有阴云笼罩。
First, housing prices remain in nosebleed territory. Reports say housing prices in Australia are 82% above those in the U.S. The median home price is 6.8 times that of
yearlyincome, versus 2.9 times that in the States.
首先,房价依然高得离谱。报导称,澳大利亚的房价比美国高出82%。房价中值是年收入的6.8倍,而在美国,这个倍数为2.9。
That's why noted value
investor Jeremy Grantham of GMO has said Australian U.K. real
estate is in a bubble.
这就是为什么著名的价值投资者、GMO基金管理公司总裁杰里米口格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)曾表示,澳大利亚和英国的房地产市场存在泡沫。
'Things go back to
normal, even Australian housing prices,' Grantham warns.
格兰瑟姆说,"一切都会归于正常,澳大利亚的房价也不例外。"
If that happens, even the soundest banks won't be immune.
到那时,即便连最健全的银行体系恐怕也不能幸免了。
Also, beyond
banking and
mining, the Aussie
consumereconomy is struggling, says Baker. And Australia doesn't have world technology leaders like Finland's Nokia or Canada's Research in Motion, let alone the giants of Silicon Valley.
贝克表示,另外,在银行业和采矿业之外,澳大利亚的消费经济举步维艰。而且澳大利亚缺乏如芬兰的诺基亚(Nokia)及加拿大的动态研究公司(Research in Motion)等世界级的科技领军企业,更不用说像硅谷巨头那样的企业了。
So, Australia is joined at the hip with China. It will
prosper as long as China does. Growth prospects for China look good for the next
decade, even as it tries to move its
economy in a new direction. But China is 'the big question mark over our market and our
economy,' says Baker. If China's growth slows, 'there doesn't seem to be a backup plan.'
因此,澳大利亚和中国就结成了亲密伙伴。只要中国繁荣,澳大利亚就会兴旺发达。即使中国正努力将经济推向新的方向,它在未来十年的经济增长前景依然看好。贝克表示,但是,中国也是"悬在我们的市场和经济上面的一个大问号。"如果中国的经济增长放缓,"我们似乎没有后备方案。"
So, all hail Australia, the best stock market of the last century. Whether it can stay on top for the next 100 years is another story.
那么,让我们为澳大利亚,这个上世纪表现最好的市场欢呼吧口至于它能否在未来的100年里继续辉煌就是另外一回事了。
-By Howard Gold