How
pedestrian. Goldman Sachs Group (GS) posted a single-digit-percentage return on
equity during a pretty woeful second quarter, a
performance more like that of a garden-variety bank than a Wall Street powerhouse.
太普通了。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)公布,在相当糟糕的第二季度股本回报率为百分比一位数字,这更像是一家普通银行的业绩,而不是华尔街重磅企业的表现。
The result contrasted with the 20%-plus returns Goldman shareholders have become accustomed to and the 30%-plus returns often seen during the credit boom. In fact, putting aside the last two quarters of 2008, when the
financialcrisis was reaching a crescendo, Goldman since going public in 1999 hadn't before Tuesday had a quarter in which its return on common
equity was below 10%, according to Capital IQ.
这一结果与高盛股东习惯的20%多的回报率,以及在信贷繁荣期经常出现的30%多的回报率形成鲜明对比。实际上根据Capital IQ数据,除去金融危机达到顶点的2008年最后两个季度,高盛在1999年公开上市以来,在截至周二前还没有一个季度的普通股本回报率低于10%。
The immediate cause of Goldman's
weakness was a slump in trading activity that sent
revenue in the bank's fixed-income, currencies and commodities division down 35%, to $4.39
billion. There also was an un
characteristic
blunder: Equities-trading
revenue tumbled because Goldman was caught flat-footed when volatility rose as markets tumbled.
高盛疲弱的直接原因是交易活动下降,这导致该银行固定收益、货币和大宗商品部门的收入下降35%至43.9亿美元。这里还有一个不太典型的失误:当股市动荡导致波动性上升时,高盛被打了个措手不及,股票交易收入因而下降。
The worry for investors is that a more-fundamental change is afoot. More-stringent
regulation, looming requirements for higher capital and a
charged political
environment already may be forcing Goldman to reduce its
appetite for risk in ways that go beyond a single quarter. If so, Goldman's future returns could settle at about 15%, rather than the 20% the firm targets.
投资者仍在担心更偏于基本面的变化即将出现。更严格的管理、即将实施的更高资本要求,以及政治环境紧张可能已迫使高盛降低风险偏好,而这种情况早存在不止一个季度了。如果情况是这样的话,高盛的未来回报率将约为15%,而不是集团定下的20%的目标。
Goldman, like other banks, is having to hold more capital and run with lower leverage. At the end of the second quarter, Goldman's total assets of $883
billion were
slightly less than 12 times total shareholders'
equity. That compares with leverage ratios of about 25 times and more during the boom.
像其他银行一样,高盛目前不得不持有更多资本,同时降低杠杆率。在第二季度末,高盛总资产为8830亿美元,略低于股东股票总额的12倍,而在信贷繁荣期时,杠杆率约为25倍或更高。
Goldman's second-quarter leverage ratio was in line with that of J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), which reported an overall return on
equity of 12%. Goldman, by
comparison, reported a 7.9% return as net profit dropped to $613 million, compared with $3.4
billion a year earlier. Excluding a $550 million
charge for the firm's recently announced settlement of a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit, as well as $600 million for a one-time U.K. bonus tax, the return would have been 9.5%.
高盛第二季度杠杆率与摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)大致相仿,后者公布整体股票回报率为12%。相比之下,高盛公布回报率为7.9%,净利从上年同期的34亿美元降至降至6.13亿美元。如果排除近期用5.5亿美元和解美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)提起的诉讼,以及用6亿美元支付英国的一次性奖金税,高盛第二季度回报率本应为9.5%。
What is telling is that Goldman didn't try to boost its return by ramping up leverage during the quarter. That is what happened at J.P. Morgan. That bank's investment-bank and asset-management units, which offer a better
comparison to Goldman than the overall bank, saw leverage increase to 16.6 times from 15.8 times in the first quarter.
这说明高盛第二季度没有通过提高杠杆率来提高其回报率,而摩根大通则采用了这样的做法。摩根大通的投资银行和资产管理部门的杠杆率从第一季度的15.8倍增至第二季度的16.6倍。相较于整个摩根大通,这两个部门可以更好地与高盛进行对比。
Returns on
equity for those units fell to a combined 15% in the second quarter from 24.6%. But that was a
lesser decline than the drop to 7.9% or 9.5% from Goldman's first-quarter return of 20.1%.
第二季度这两个部门的综合股票回报率从第一季度的24.6%降至15%,但跌幅没有高盛厉害,高盛股票回报率从第一季度的20.1%降至7.9%或9.5%。
Granted, Goldman faced
unique legal and political headaches in the second quarter that may have distracted key individuals and caused it to pull its horns in on risk. But the results still are out of
character for the firm, and a
timelyreminder for investors that Goldman, too, is mortal.
第二季度高盛面临着少见的法律和政治麻烦,这可能转移了主要散户的注意力,并使公司处于风险之下。但这样的结果仍不是高盛应该有的,它即时地提醒了投资者,高盛也不过就是一个凡夫俗子。