How bad will the euro slump get? On Wednesday, the beleaguered
currency hit a four-year low of $1.21, on nagging worries that the Greek debt
crisis will continue to drag down the rest of the euro zone economy-and possibly spread beyond. By Friday the euro had rebounded to nearly $1.26, but it's nonetheless down 13% this year.
元能跌到多惨的地步?上周三,由于投资者担心希腊债务危机将继续拖累欧元区其他经济体,甚至可能蔓延到其他地区,陷入困境的欧元随之触及1.21美元的四年低点。至上周五前,欧元反弹至近1.26美元,不过今年以来仍累计跌了13%。
The situation has
investors wondering whether to overhaul their stock portfolios to protect against a long-term euro
plunge. They may be overthinking, especially if they already hold a big slug of U.S. multinationals.
这样的形势令投资者不禁怀疑,是否应该调整股票投资组合以避开欧元的长期暴跌。他们也许是过虑了,特别是如果他们已经持有美国跨国公司大量股票的话。
The
classicresponse to a sinking euro would be to sell shares of U.S. manufacturers that sell in Europe and buy shares of, say, German, French and Dutch competitors that sell in the U.S. The weakening euro, after all, makes their goods cheaper in the U.S., boosting sales and market share.
应对欧元走软的经典方式是抛售产品销往欧洲的美国制造企业的股票,转而买进产品销往美国的德国、法国和荷兰等竞争对手企业的股票。毕竟,走软的欧元令这些国家企业的产品在美国更便宜,能够推动销售、增加市场份额。
But in recent years many big corporations have taken great care to diversify their operations globally, in part to
minimize the effects of
currency swings on their profits. Investors wary of
currency fluctuations 'should
invest in multinational companies, which earn money around the world,' advises David Bianco, chief U.S.
equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
不过,近年来,很多大型企业都非常注意在全球范围内分散业务,部分原因是为了尽量减少汇率波动对利润的影响。美国银行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)首席美国股市策略师比安科(David Bianco)说,警惕汇率波动的投资者应该投资于跨国公司,因为这些公司可以在全球赚钱。
One such multinational, Peoria, Ill.-based Caterpillar, a maker of
construction and
mining machines and one of the nation's largest exporters, has manufacturing plants worldwide, including in euro zone countries like Germany, France and The Netherlands.
位于伊利诺伊州皮奥里亚的建筑和采矿设备生产商、美国最大的出口厂商之一卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)就是这样一家跨国公司。该公司在全球设有制造厂,包括德国、法国和荷兰等欧元区国家。
Only a
relatively few of the company's machines, most of which sell in low volumes, are made
exclusively in the U.S. One example: giant trucks that can carry up to 380 tons of debris are produced in Decatur, Ill., about 80 miles from the company's
headquarters. But smaller, higher-volume machines and parts are made around the world, often close to where they're sold, says Caterpillar
spokesman Jim Dugan.
该公司所产设备中只有相对较小的一部分是完全在美国制造的,而且其中大部分的销量较小。举例来讲,最高可载重380吨瓦砾的巨型卡车是在距离公司总部约80英里的伊利诺伊州迪凯特生产的。不过,卡特彼勒发言人杜根(Jim Dugan)说,较小型、销量更大的设备和部件则是在全球生产的,常常是靠近销售市场的地方。
Mr. Bianco recommends
investors look at regional sales to determine how evenly companies'
currencyexposure is spread. Costs matter, too, but most multinationals try to
disperse costs and sales evenly in the regions in which they
operate, he says. U.S. sales contributed just 31% of Caterpillar's total last year, while customers in Europe, Africa and the Middle East bought the largest share of exports-40%.
比安科建议投资者考察地区销售情况以确定公司目前的外汇风险是否分配得均衡。他说,成本也很重要,不过大部分跨国公司都试图在有业务的各个地区平均分配成本和销量。美国的销量只占了卡特彼勒去年销量的31%,而欧洲、非洲和中东的客户则是该公司出口产品的主要买家,占了40%。
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资产管理公司Robert W. Baird & Co.高级分析师麦卡锡(Robert McCarthy)说,欧元的下跌对卡特彼勒来说问题不大,因为该公司在美国生产并出口海外的大部分设备都是面临有限竞争的产品。今年以来,卡特彼勒股票涨了7%,而道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数跌了2%。
The euro decline poses little problem for Caterpillar, says Robert McCarthy, a
senior analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co., because many of the machines it builds in the U.S. and exports are ones for which it faces
limitedcompetition. Shares of Caterpillar are up 7% this year, versus a 2% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
其他美国公司甚至还要更精细地按地区分配销量。可口可乐(Coca-Cola)去年的业务除使用美元之外,还有其他71种货币。晨星(Morningstar Equity Research)股票分析师戈汉姆(Philip Gorham)说,很难找到一个比可口可乐在地理上更分散化的公司。他说,长远来看,这能保护公司不受汇率波动的影响。
Other U.S. companies spread their sales even more
finely by region. Coca-Cola last year did business using 71 currencies besides the dollar. 'It's hard to find a more geographically diversified company,' says Philip Gorham, a stock analyst with Morningstar Equity Research. Over the long term, that protects the company from
currency swings, he says.
近年来,可口可乐在新兴市场销量迅速增长,有鉴于此,该公司计划在未来三年投资20亿美元扩大在华分销业务。该公司股票今年以来累计跌了9%,不过股息率为3.4%,而且该公司连续48年提高股息。
In recent years Coca-Cola has seen rapid sales growth in emerging markets, so it plans to
invest $2
billion to
expand its
distribution in China over the next three years. Its shares have fallen 9% this year, but they carry a 3.4%
dividend yield, and the company has increased payments for 48 straight years.
一些跨国公司的销售不但按地理位置进行分散,而且还按产品线分散。位于明尼苏达州圣保罗的综合企业3M的触角遍布很多领域,从触摸屏到狗的咀嚼玩具。去年,在公司总销量中,在美国的销量占了37%,亚太国家占了27%,欧洲、中东和非洲占了26%;其他销量则是在拉美和加拿大。该公司股票今年以来跌了1%,比道琼斯指数跌幅略小。
Some multinationals are diversified by product line as well as
geography. Based in St. Paul, Minn., conglomerate 3M has a hand in everything from touch screens to dog chews. Last year it collected 37% of its sales in the U.S.; 27% in Asia Pacific countries; 26% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa; and the rest in Latin America and Canada. Its stock is down 1% this year, a smidgen better than the Dow.
投资银行Sterne Agee的海曼(Nicholas Heymann)说,他们在一个地区销售的产品大部分都是在当地生产的。
'They make in a region most of what they sell in a region,' says Nicholas Heymann of
investment bank Sterne Agee.
此外,据海曼说,3M如今有了大量的闲置现金,可以在新兴市场以不断加快的速度进行再投资,以推动在这些地区未来的增长。
What's more, 3M now generates so much free cash that it can re
invest it at a rising rate in emerging markets to bolster future growth there, according to Mr. Heymann.
他说,他们有机会利用在新兴市场现有的10%到20%的市场份额,将其扩大到在发达市场同类产品中享受的40%的市场份额。
'They have an opportunity to take the 10% to 20% market shares they have for products in emerging markets,' he says, 'and
expand them to the 40% share they enjoy on some of the same products in developed markets.'