If Federal Reserve policy makers had a motto, it would be 'better safe than sorry.'
如美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)决策人士有个座右铭的话，它会是"宁可事先谨慎有余，不要事后追悔莫及"。
Data in the six weeks since the Fed's last policy meeting paint a picture of an improving U.S. economy with rebounds in retail sales, manufacturing activity and private-sector hiring. Officials on Wednesday are expected to upgrade their assessment of the economy, but with unemployment near 10% and inflation rates still low, that is as far as they are likely to go.
自美联储上次的政策会议以来，这六周的数据描绘出了一幅美国经济逐渐好转、零售业、制造活动和私营领域招聘回升的图景。预计官员们周三将上调经济预期，不过在失业率近10%、通货膨胀率依然较低的情况下，他们能做的可能也就这么多了。
Still, it is a step in the process, if a glacial one, toward a reversal of the Fed's ultraloose monetarypolicy via near-zero interest rates. Already, the central bank has closed nearly all its temporary lending programs and ended purchases of $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities.
尽管如此，这是朝着退出美联储超宽松货币政策（表现形式是近零的利率）的缓慢过程中的一步。美联储已经终止了几乎全部的临时放贷项目，结束收购1.25万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。
So far, that has caused little market disruption. As of Monday, 30-year mortgage rates stood just 0.63 percentage points above 10-year Treasury notes, according to Barclays Capital, compared with 0.65 percentage points in January.
到目前为止，这并没有引起太大的市场波动。据巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的数据，截至周一，30年期抵押贷款利率只比10年期美国国债利率高0.63个百分点；相比之下，1月份两者的差距为0.65个百分点。
Maintaining that calm, however, depends critically on the Fed's next moves. Investors have become jittery the Fed will start dumping its mortgage assets into the market.
不过，维持这样的平静局面主要取决于美联储接下来的举措。投资者已经变得紧张不安，担心美联储将开始向市场抛售抵押贷款资产。
Worry grew after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in March said the Fed 'has the option of redeeming or selling securities,' while Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota noted recently that the Fed would need to sell a 'nontrivial' amount of its holdings, such as $15 billion to $25 billion a month, to return its balance sheet to precrisis levels.
美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke) 3月份时说，美联储有回购或出售证券的选择。这加剧了公众的担忧情绪。此外，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长柯薛拉柯塔(Narayana Kocherlakota)最近说，美联储将需要出售"相当"数量的资产，比如每个月出售150亿至250亿美元，以便使资产负债表恢复到危机前的水平。
But it is difficult to see policy makers pushing sales quickly since the housing market is still on shaky ground. 'I don't think we'll have asset sales at all this year and frankly I'm skeptical they'd do them in 2011,' says Barclays analyst Joseph Abate. 'There just isn't a pressing need.'
不过，鉴于楼市根基依然不稳，决策人士不太可能迅速推动抵押贷款资产的出售。巴克莱分析师阿贝特(Joseph Abate)说，我认为今年我们根本不会有资产出售，坦白讲，我怀疑2011年也不会有；根本没有迫切的需要。
Some $200 billion of mortgage holdings, or about 18% of the Fed's total, he adds, is set to roll off by the end of next year anyway as the securities mature. Shrinking mortgage holdings in that way is more likely since it won't put pressure on markets. The Fed may also trim the balance sheet through auctions of other holdings.
他还说，不管怎样，约2,000亿美元的抵押贷款资产（约占美联储总额的18%）将于明年底到期前出售。以这种方式减少抵押贷款资产的可能性更大，原因是这不会给市场带来压力。美联储还可能通过拍卖其他资产减小资产规模。
Wednesday's statement should offer some insight on the Fed's time line. What will remain unclear is whether the Fed stays too cautious for too long.
周三的声明应该能让人们对美联储的时间表有所了解。仍不清楚的是，美联储是否将在太长时间内保持过于谨慎。
Kelly Evans
- federal [´fedərəl]
a.联邦的，联邦制的 (初中英语单词) - economy [i´kɔnəmi] n.经济；机制；组织 (初中英语单词)
- wednesday [´wenzdi] n.星期三 (初中英语单词)
- percentage [pə´sentidʒ] n.百分数；比例；部分 (初中英语单词)
- amount [ə´maunt] n.总数；数量 v.合计 (初中英语单词)
- frankly [´fræŋkli] ad.直率地；慷慨地 (初中英语单词)
- pressure [´preʃə] n.压榨 vt.对...施压力 (初中英语单词)
- unemployment [,ʌnim´plɔimənt] n.失业；失业人数 (高中英语单词)
- temporary [´tempərəri] a.暂时的 n.临时工 (高中英语单词)
- mortgage [´mɔ:gidʒ] a.&vt.抵押 (高中英语单词)
- billion [´biljən] num.万亿 (高中英语单词)
- mature [mə´tjuə] a.成熟的 v.(使)成熟 (高中英语单词)
- policy [´pɔlisi] n.政策；权谋；保险单 (英语四级单词)
- retail [´ri:teil, ri´teil] n.&a.&v.零售(商品的) (英语四级单词)
- cautious [´kɔ:ʃəs] a.小心的；谨慎的 (英语四级单词)
- monetary [´mʌnitəri] a.金融的；货币的 (英语六级单词)
- insight [´insait] n.洞悉；洞察力；见识 (英语六级单词)
京公网安备 11011202003401号
