The Federal Reserve's decisions to keep interest rates near zero and to flood the financialsystem with credit are sparking fears of an eventual outbreak of inflation.

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)决定将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并向金融体系大量注入信贷资金，这使人们不禁担心最终会爆发通货膨胀。

But inside the Fed, an influential band of policy makers is fretting over the opposite: that the already-low rate of inflation is slowing further.

但在美联储内部，一批有影响力的决策者正在为相反的情形担心，即已经处在低位的通货膨胀率正在进一步降低。

The presidents of the New York and San Francisco regional Fed banks, William Dudley and Janet Yellen, see the abating inflation rate as convincing evidence the economy still is burdened by excesscapacity and needs to be sustained by the Fed.

在纽约和旧金山联邦储备银行的行长杜德利(William Dudley)及耶伦(Janet Yellen)看来，不断降低的通货膨胀率是显示美国经济依然存在过剩产能的确凿证据，表明美国经济仍需要美联储出手相托。

Others, led by Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, argue that current inflation measures are distorted by an epic decline in housing costs and could mask a buildup of inflationary pressures.

而由费城联邦储备银行行长普劳瑟(Charles Plosser)牵头的一批美联储决策人士则认为，目前的通货膨胀指标被住房成本的大幅下降所扭曲，它们可能掩盖了通货膨胀压力正在加大的现实。

This intensifying internal Fed debate over the behavior of inflation comes as the central bank plots an exit from an unprecedented experiment in easy money. Its read on inflation will influence how quickly it moves to raise short-term interest rates -- which impacts everything from mortgage rates to new business costs to stock performance -- and drain huge sums it pumped into the financialsystem during the recession. Recent developments have given the inflation-rate-is-dropping camp an upper hand.

就在美联储内部围绕通货膨胀问题的争论不断加剧之际，美联储也在制定退出史无前例的超宽松货币政策的策略。美联储对通货膨胀形势的判断，将影响它决定以多快的速度上调短期利率，并从金融体系中抽取它在经济衰退期间注入的巨额资金。从按揭贷款利率到企业成本，再到股市表现，经济生活的方方面面都会受到调整短期利率的影响。而从最近的事态发展看，那种认为通货膨胀率正在下降的观点占了上风。

In 2008, overall consumer prices actually fell for the first time in half a century, but then rebounded as energy prices stabilized. Over the past 12 months, the consumer-price index has risen 2.1%. But measures of inflation that strip out volatile energy and food prices are decelerating. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices in February were 1.3% higher than a year earlier. That was the smallest 12-month increase in six years, and well below year-over-year increases of above 2% before the recession.

2008年，美国的总体消费者价格指数半个世纪以来首次出现下降，不过在那之后随着能源价格趋于稳定，这一价格指数也出现了反弹。过去12个月中，美国的消费者价格指数上升了2.1%。但如果去除掉波动性较大的能源和食品价格，美国的通货膨胀率则在下降。美国二月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格指数较上年同期上涨1.3%。这是该指数六年来最小的同比涨幅，大大低于本次衰退前2%以上的 同比上涨幅度。

'When unemployment is so high, wages and incomes tend to rise slowly, and producers and retailers have a hard time raising prices,' Ms. Yellen, who is expected to be President Barack Obama's nominee to become the Fed's vice chairman, said in a speech last week. 'That's the situation we're in today, and, as a result, underlying inflation pressures are already very low and trending downward.'

耶伦上周在一次演讲中说，当失业率如此之高的时候，工资和收入往往增长缓慢，生产企业和零售商难以提价。预计她将被美国总统奥巴马提名出任美联储副主席。耶伦说，这正是我们目前面临的形势，其结果是，核心通货膨胀压力已经非常低，并且其趋势是进一步降低。

In this camp, one worry is that inflation-adjusted interest rates -- also known as real interest rates -- could rise even if the Fed sits on its hands. Such a rise would be a disincentive for businesses to invest in new projects and for consumers to spend.

该阵营担心的一个问题是，即使美联储不乐见，经通货膨胀因素调整的利率(也就是所谓的实际利率)也有可能上升。实际利率上升不利于企业投资新项目，也不利于消费者花钱。

This unintended increase in rates could put a brake on the economic recovery.

利率这种始料未及的上升有可能妨碍经济复苏。

The opposing camp believes the combination of low rates and more than $1 trillion the Fed has pumped into the financialsystem is a formula for inflation down the road. 'As the economy improves and as lending picks up, the longer-term challenge we face will not be worrying about inflation being too low,' Mr. Plosser said in an interview. 'The risk is really to the upside of inflation over the next two to three years.'

而与耶伦这一派持相反观点的阵营则认为，鉴于美国当前的低利率以及美联储向金融体系注入的一万多亿美元资金，通货膨胀将不可避免。费城联邦储备银行行长普劳瑟在接受采访时说，随着经济形势的改善以及放贷额的增长，通货膨胀太低将不是美国面临的中、长期挑战。他说，真正的风险是，未来两到三年内通货膨胀率将会上扬。

This camp focuses less on the amount of slack in the economy -- the high unemployment rate and the number of empty office buildings, shopping malls and idle factories -- and more on the risk that consumers and businesses will anticipate inflation and act accordingly. At the Fed's mid-March meeting, Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Fed, argued for an increase in short-term interest rates 'soon' to 'lower the risks of . . . an increase in long-run inflation expectations.'

这一阵营不那么关注于美国经济的低迷程度，如居高不下的失业率、大量空空如也的写字楼和购物中心，以及闲置的工厂，他们更关注的是消费者和企业的通胀预期以及他们根据这种预期采取行动的风险。在美联储三月中旬的会议上，堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长霍恩(Thomas Hoenig)认为，上调短期利率会"很快"降低长期通货膨胀预期提高的风险。

Surveys and bond price movements suggest Americans expect inflation of around 2% year-in and year-out, and Fed officials believe this helps keep the inflation rate stable. A change in inflation expectations in either direction could become important in Fed deliberations.

民意调查和债券价格变动情况暗示，通货膨胀率今年全年都将维持在2%左右，美联储官员认为，这种预期有助于保持通胀率的稳定。美国人通胀预期的提高或降低都有可能对美联储的决策产生重要影响。

Excluding food and energy, it is up 1.3% from a year ago, and the slowdown is intensifying: Over the past three months, it has risen at an annual pace of just 0.5%, a slowdown that has been noticed by Fed officials. The Fed's preferred level for this measures is between 1.5% to 2%.

不包括食品和能源价格的该指数目前较上年同期高1.3%，该指数的上涨速度放缓之势正在加剧：过去三个月中，这一指数折合成年率的升幅只有0.5%，美联储官员们已经注意到了这一增速放缓现象。美联储认为该物价指数理想的涨幅应在1.5%至2%之间。

Jon Hilsenrath

federal [´fedərəl] a.联邦的，联邦制的 (初中词汇)

financial [fi´nænʃəl] a.金融的，财政的 (初中词汇)

system [´sistəm] n.系统，体系，制度 (初中词汇)

economy [i´kɔnəmi] n.经济；机制；组织 (初中词汇)

excess [´ekses] n.超过 a.过分的 (初中词汇)

capacity [kə´pæsiti] n.容量；智能；能力 (初中词汇)

debate [di´beit] n.&v.讨论，辩论 (初中词汇)

performance [pə´fɔ:məns] n.履行；行为；工作 (初中词汇)

actually [´æktʃuəli] ad.事实上；实际上 (初中词汇)

energy [´enədʒi] n.活力，精力；能力 (初中词汇)

invest [in´vest] v.投资；授予 (初中词汇)

combination [,kɔmbi´neiʃən] n.结合；联合；团体 (初中词汇)

challenge [´tʃælindʒ] n.&vt.向....挑战；怀疑 (初中词汇)

interview [´intəvju:] n.&vt.接见；会见；交谈 (初中词汇)

amount [ə´maunt] n.总数；数量 v.合计 (初中词汇)

accordingly [ə´kɔ:diŋli] ad.因此；从而；依照 (初中词汇)

stable [´steibəl] n.马棚 a.稳固的 (初中词汇)

annual [´ænjuəl] a.每年的 n.年刊 (初中词汇)

outbreak [´autbreik] n.(战争等的)爆发 (高中词汇)

influential [,influ´enʃəl] a.有力的，有影响的 (高中词汇)

internal [in´tə:nl] a.内部的；国内的 (高中词汇)

behavior [bi´heiviə] n.举止，行为 (高中词汇)

mortgage [´mɔ:gidʒ] a.&vt.抵押 (高中词汇)

consumer [kən´sju:mə] n.消费者；用户 (高中词汇)

unemployment [,ʌnim´plɔimənt] n.失业；失业人数 (高中词汇)

formula [´fɔ:mjulə] n.公式；配方；原则 (高中词汇)

anticipate [æn´tisipeit] vt.预期；指望；期待 (高中词汇)

kansas [´kænzəs] n.堪萨斯(州) (高中词汇)

policy [´pɔlisi] n.政策；权谋；保险单 (四级词汇)

convincing [kən´vinsiŋ] a.有说服力的；有力的 (四级词汇)

upside [´ʌpsaid] n.上边，上段，上部 (四级词汇)

unprecedented [ʌn´presidentid] a.空前的 (六级词汇)

underlying [,ʌndə´laiiŋ] a.基础的；下层的 (六级词汇)