A Silver Lining in E-Commerce
The recession is taking a serious toll on American retail, but ecommerce could emerge as a winner.
According to a new report by Forrester Research, ecommerce sales (beyond travel) are likely to grow 11%, to $156 billion, in 2009. That marks a slowdown from 13% growth last year and 18% in 2007. The major factor contributing to the pace shift is, of course, decliningconsumer confidence.
But ecommerce's slowed pace is still far better than the National Retail Federation's forecasted 0.5% drop in overall retail sales this year.
That means ecommerce is stealing market share from traditionalretail - and fast. By Forrester's estimates, in 2008 ecommerce accounted for 5% of all retail sales (excluding cars, travel and prescription drugs). In 2012, Forrester thinks ecommerce could have an 8% share.
One recent factor is that online shopping promises bargains to price-sensitive consumers. 'The recession is definitely encouraging more consumers to do their homework before they go and complete a purchase,' says Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru.
Ecommerce is also somewhat protected because online shoppers tend to be wealthier: about half of all online shopping is done by households that earn more than $75,000 per year, even though they're just about a third of all households with Internet access.
But not all Internet companies are set to benefit equally. Last month, ecommerce giant eBay posted its first-ever quarterly revenue decline, while Amazon reported a sales surge of 18%.
Smaller players are particularly at risk. 'There are some pretty vicious wars as companies go online and duke it out to get market share,' says Mulpuru. 'The concern I have is that we could go back down the spiral of death from 1999 and 2000, when companies would under-price themselves without thinking about profitability.'
经济衰退正给美国零售业带来沉重打击，但电子商务可能会脱颍而出，成为赢家。
根据Forrester Research新发布的报告，2009年电子商务销售额（不包括旅游）可能会增长11%，达到1,560亿美元。较之去年13%和2007年18%的增速，这一增速有所放缓。导致增幅回落的主要原因当然是消费者信心不断下滑。
但即便增速放缓，电子商务表现也明显好于整体零售额。根据美国零售商协会(National Retail Federation)的预计，今年美国整体零售额会下降0.5%。
这意味着电子商务正在迅速从传统零售业那里获取市场份额。根据Forrester的预计，2008年电子商务占了所有零售额（不包括汽车、旅行和处方药）的5%。该公司预计，到2012年这一比例可能会上升至8%。
一个重要的因素是网上购物可以给关注价格的消费者带来更多实惠。Forrester分析师穆普鲁(Sucharita Mulpuru)表示，经济衰退肯定会推动更多消费者在出门购物前做足功课。
由于网上购物者通常较为富有，这也在一定程度上保护了电子商务：美国大约一半的网上购物来自于年收入超过75,000美元的家庭，尽管这部分家庭仅占能上网家庭的大约三分之一。
但并不是所有网络公司都能从中受益。上个月，电子商务巨头eBay公布了首次财季收入下滑，而亚马逊公司(Amazon)销售额则飙升了18%。
规模较小的网络零售商尤其面临风险。穆普鲁说，随着各家公司纷纷涌入网络争夺市场份额，这个市场出现了一些相当恶意的竞争。我担心我们可能会重蹈1999年、2000年的覆辙，当时各家公司大打价格战，丝毫没有考虑盈利问题。
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The recession is taking a serious toll on American retail, but ecommerce could emerge as a winner.
According to a new report by Forrester Research, ecommerce sales (beyond travel) are likely to grow 11%, to $156 billion, in 2009. That marks a slowdown from 13% growth last year and 18% in 2007. The major factor contributing to the pace shift is, of course, decliningconsumer confidence.
But ecommerce's slowed pace is still far better than the National Retail Federation's forecasted 0.5% drop in overall retail sales this year.
That means ecommerce is stealing market share from traditionalretail - and fast. By Forrester's estimates, in 2008 ecommerce accounted for 5% of all retail sales (excluding cars, travel and prescription drugs). In 2012, Forrester thinks ecommerce could have an 8% share.
One recent factor is that online shopping promises bargains to price-sensitive consumers. 'The recession is definitely encouraging more consumers to do their homework before they go and complete a purchase,' says Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru.
Ecommerce is also somewhat protected because online shoppers tend to be wealthier: about half of all online shopping is done by households that earn more than $75,000 per year, even though they're just about a third of all households with Internet access.
But not all Internet companies are set to benefit equally. Last month, ecommerce giant eBay posted its first-ever quarterly revenue decline, while Amazon reported a sales surge of 18%.
Smaller players are particularly at risk. 'There are some pretty vicious wars as companies go online and duke it out to get market share,' says Mulpuru. 'The concern I have is that we could go back down the spiral of death from 1999 and 2000, when companies would under-price themselves without thinking about profitability.'
经济衰退正给美国零售业带来沉重打击，但电子商务可能会脱颍而出，成为赢家。
根据Forrester Research新发布的报告，2009年电子商务销售额（不包括旅游）可能会增长11%，达到1,560亿美元。较之去年13%和2007年18%的增速，这一增速有所放缓。导致增幅回落的主要原因当然是消费者信心不断下滑。
但即便增速放缓，电子商务表现也明显好于整体零售额。根据美国零售商协会(National Retail Federation)的预计，今年美国整体零售额会下降0.5%。
这意味着电子商务正在迅速从传统零售业那里获取市场份额。根据Forrester的预计，2008年电子商务占了所有零售额（不包括汽车、旅行和处方药）的5%。该公司预计，到2012年这一比例可能会上升至8%。
一个重要的因素是网上购物可以给关注价格的消费者带来更多实惠。Forrester分析师穆普鲁(Sucharita Mulpuru)表示，经济衰退肯定会推动更多消费者在出门购物前做足功课。
由于网上购物者通常较为富有，这也在一定程度上保护了电子商务：美国大约一半的网上购物来自于年收入超过75,000美元的家庭，尽管这部分家庭仅占能上网家庭的大约三分之一。
但并不是所有网络公司都能从中受益。上个月，电子商务巨头eBay公布了首次财季收入下滑，而亚马逊公司(Amazon)销售额则飙升了18%。
规模较小的网络零售商尤其面临风险。穆普鲁说，随着各家公司纷纷涌入网络争夺市场份额，这个市场出现了一些相当恶意的竞争。我担心我们可能会重蹈1999年、2000年的覆辙，当时各家公司大打价格战，丝毫没有考虑盈利问题。
关键字:双语阅读
生词表:
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