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图表分析工具的作用

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图表分析工具的作用不仅限于将数字转化为图形形式，还有助于显示市场心理（交易员称之为市场人气），并且可以反映多数市场人士的持仓状况。屏幕上的柱状图和线形图也显示出价格是如何波动的，并且可以根据过去的走势预测未来的表现。

 

Reuters

一名交易员正在研究一张张技术图表。

比如，一次大跌之后的大涨可能意味着，许多交易员先是基于将出现下跌的预期而抛售，然后又迅速买回。当价格下跌，心急如火的买家纷纷涌入市场，导致需求飙升，进而推升价格。交易员将这种"逢低吸纳"的情况视为价格之后将走高的信号，因为这种情况意味着潜在人气看涨。

 

美元兑日圆的日线图就可以提供这样一个例子。自10月份以来，美元兑日圆曾三次跌破200日移动均线，而且每次都最终收于这条均线的上方。这种逢低吸纳的情况反映出，美元兑日圆潜在人气看涨，这推动美元兑日圆升至高位。

 

由于许多交易员将200日移动均线视为一个简单、有效的图表工具，相当于一个想象中的底部或者支撑，因此它经常被使用，并且会成为自我应验的预言，这也会成为未来价格走势的一个阻碍。

 

图表分析工具有效性的关键在于它的流行程度，如果它容易理解并且被广泛使用，那么它的预测能力就会增强。但如果在近一年前你跟随了同一种信号（2012年11月8日，当时美元/日圆收于200日移动均线下方），那么你的判断只正确了三天，之后这个信号就被推翻了。

 

即便如此，依据移动均线做出的判断，正确率要高于没那么流行的工具，比如艾略特波浪理论(Elliot Wave Theory)。由于没有多少人使用这个工具（涉及计算定义模糊的次趋势波浪），这种图表显示的信号可能不会对市场人士的决定起到太大影响。

 

另一个有效的图表分析工具是保利加通道，它是基于统计学中的标准差概念计算出的价格走势的上下两条边界线。相比移动均线，这一工具在更短期内可以提供更多交易信号，受到日内交易员的青睐。

 

从欧元兑美元叠加了保利加通道的小时图可以看出，价格似乎在一个通道内上下波动。比如在11月13日至20日那一周，欧元兑美元曾有九次进入保利加通道，其中有六次在这个通道中进一步维持了超过两个时段。这个工具正确预测了后来相当于欧元价值0.1%-0.3%的波动幅度的走势。

 

尽管图表工具有一定作用，但一些交易员使用了太多技术分析工具，这些工具经常发出相互矛盾的信号。图表分析越简单，就越可靠，因此下一次当你听到难以听懂的技术分析，就不能尽信了。

 

More than just translating numbers into graphic form, chart analysis tools help illustrate market psychology -- or what traders call sentiment -- and can paint a bigger picture of how most market participants may be positioned. Bars and lines on the screen also depict how prices have moved and can indicate future performance based on past movements.

For instance, a deep slide followed by a sharp rise could mean that many traders sold in anticipation of a dip and then quickly bought back. When the dip occurred, eager bidders pounced, creating a spike in demand that propelled the price up. Traders read this 'buying on dips' as a sign that prices will rally later due to underlying bullishness, or sentiment.

An example of this is in the daily chart of the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen. Since October, the dollar dipped below the 200-day moving average line three times and each time, it closed above the line, which tracks the dollar's average price over the last 200 days. This buying on dips reflected underlying bullish views for the dollar versus the yen, which have driven the dollar to its elevated level against the Japanese currency.

Because many traders deem the 200-day moving average to be a simple and effective charting tool that draws an imaginary floor or support, it is often used and can become a self-fulfilling prophecy that becomes an obstacle to future price movements.

The key to a chart analysis tool's effectiveness lies in its popularity--its power of prediction increases when it is easily understood and applied by a broader audience. But if you had followed this same signal almost exactly one year ago -- on Nov. 8, 2012, when the dollar/yen chart closed below its 200-day moving average -- you would have been right for only three days before the signal overturned.

Even so, moving averages stand a better chance at being accurate than their less popular peers such as the Elliot Wave Theory. Because few use the tool, which involves counting vaguely defined sub-trend waves, the signals appearing on that chart probably won't have a large impact on market participants' decisions.

Another example of an effective chart analysis tool is Bollinger Bands, a pair of boundary lines for price movements based on the statisticsconcept of standard deviation. The tool, which generates more trading signals within a shorter period compared to moving averages, is popular among day traders, who usually buy and sell within the trading day.

A look at the hourly chart for the euro against the U.S. dollar superimposed with its Bollinger Band reveals that prices tend to bob within a channel. During the week spanning Nov. 13-20, for instance, the price of the euro entered the channel on nine occasions and in six of those nine occurrences stayed within the channel for more than two further periods. The tool accurately forecasted subsequent moves of between 0.1%-0.3% of the euro's value.

As useful as charting tools can be, some traders go overboard by deploying multiple technicalanalysis tools, which often produces conflicting signals. Keeping it simple makes chart analysis more reliable, so the next time you come across technicalanalysis that sounds more Greek than English, take it with a pinch of salt.



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