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很多赌场从10%的客户那里获取了约90%的利润

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美国很多公路的两侧，让人应接不暇的赌场广告牌用财富不断地诱惑着过往的路人。亚利桑那州的一块广告牌写道："富贵显荣，尽在赌场。"另一块广告牌写道："每天710万美元。我们是慷慨的提款机。"但是，赌客赢钱的频率到底有多高呢？在某一天或者从长期来看，赌客赢钱的几率分别有多大呢？别麻烦赌场来回答这些问题了。尽管赌场出于市场营销的目的收集了有关客户的海量信息，其中包括很多赌场常客的输赢数据，但是赌场却将这些信息视作了高度机密。


The casino billboards lining America's roadways tantalize with the lure of riches. 'Easy Street. It's Only a Play Away,' screams one in Arizona. '$7.1 Million Every Day. We're a Payout Machine,' reads another.


现在，多亏一项史无前例的、追踪两年间数千名网络赌客行为的公共数据的发布，《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)可以带你一探究竟了。


But how often do gamblers really win? What are the chances that a gambler will win on a single day or over a longer period? Don't bother to ask the casinos. Although they gather vast quantities of data about their customers for marketing purposes, including win and loss tallies for many regulars, casinos keep such information a closely-guarded secret.


在某一天中，诞生赢家的几率并不算太低——玩家在30%下注的日子中都能赢钱。但是，继续赌博并不明智。从长期来看，只有11%的玩家最后能以赢钱收场，并且他们中大多数人的获利金额都不超过150美元。


Now, thanks to an unprecedented trove of public data detailing the behavior of thousands of Internet gamblers over a two-year period, The Wall Street Journal can provide some answers.


豪赌客的数据则更加惊人。在赌注前10%高的玩家（即那些两年中所下赌注总金额最高的玩家）中，有约95%的人都以输钱收场，一些人的损失甚至数以万计。在豪赌客中，输钱金额在5,000美元以上的大额输家与大额赢家的比例高达惊人的128：1。


On any given day, the chances of emerging a winner aren't too bad -- the gamblers won money on 30% of the days they wagered. But continuing to gamble is a bad bet. Just 11% of players ended up in the black over the full period, and most of those pocketed less than $150.


上述分析来自一个保存有4,222名网络玩家的匿名记录的数据库，这些网络玩家参与赌场类游戏的时间至少有四天，他们参与的游戏包括二十一点(blackjack)、轮盘(roulette)和老虎机(slots)。数据记录了在2005年至2007年间，玩家在由欧洲大型网络赌博公司Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment PLC.运营的网站上赌博的战绩。


The skew was even more pronounced when it came to heavy gamblers. Of the top 10% of bettors -- those placing the largest number of total wagers over the two years -- about 95% ended up losing money, some dropping tens of thousands of dollars. Big losers of more than $5,000 among these heavy gamblers outnumbered big winners by a staggering 128 to 1.




The analysis comes from a database containing anonymous records of 4,222 Internet gamblers who wagered on at least four days on casino-style games of chance such as blackjack, roulette and slots. They played between 2005 and 2007 on websites run by a major European online gambling concern, Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment PLC.


Bwin向哈佛医学院(Harvard Medical School)专门从事嗜赌研究的研究人员披露了上述数据，哈佛医学院已将不少数据在网络上公布。Bwin表示，自己提供的客户抽样数据完全能够代表最近的趋势。


Bwin made the information available to gambling-addiction researchers affiliated with Harvard Medical School, who posted much of the data on the Internet. Bwin says there's no reason to believe a more current sample of customers would show significant differences.


丹佛大学(University of Denver)的博彩数学专家罗伯特·汉纳姆(Robert Hannum)表示，尽管在某些方面，Bwin的网络玩家与典型的美国赌场玩家存在一定的差异，但是鉴于游戏的相似性，这两类玩家的输赢模式应该大体类似。


Although the online Bwin customers differed in some ways from those typically found in a U.S. casino, their win and loss patterns should be roughly similar because the games are similar, said Robert Hannum, a University of Denver specialist in gambling mathematics.


为了检验这一分析的正确性，《华尔街日报》邀请密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的帕尼特·曼干达(Puneet Manchanda)和康涅狄格大学(University of Connecticut)的 熹睦(Hee Mok Park, 音)一同对他们能够获取的一个私人博彩数据库进行了分析。这个数据库记录了美国西北部一家美国土著人开设赌场的18,000名会员在两年内的战绩。研究人员发现了相同的输赢模式：只有13.5%的赌场玩家能够以赢钱收场，在Bwin的客户中，这一比例为11%；这两个数据库的大额输家对大额赢家的比例也类似，数值都非常地高。


To check, the Journal asked Puneet Manchanda of the University of Michigan and Hee Mok Park of the University of Connecticut to analyze a private gambling database to which they have access, detailing two years of play by 18,000 holders of loyalty cards at a Native American casino in the northwestern U.S. The researchers found similar patterns: Only 13.5% of gamblers ended up winning, versus 11% among Bwin customers, and the ratios of big losers to big winners were similarly large.


Bwin的数据还为我们提供了博彩经济学中通常只有业内人士才能获知的秘密。数据显示，博彩行业对少数赌客的依赖程度非常之高。


The Bwin data also offer a peek at the economics of the casino industry that only insiders normally glimpse. Among the findings is an extreme reliance on revenue from a small number of gamblers.


在4,222名赌场玩家中，2.8%的玩家（也就是119名大额输家）给赌场带来了一半的利润，10.7%的输家给赌场带来的利润为80%。


Of the 4,222 casino customers, just 2.8% -- or 119 big losers -- provided half of the casino's take, and 10.7% provided 80% of the take.


博彩行业对如此之高的利润集中度心知肚明，却一直讳莫如深。不过，Bwin提供的信息也许开创了这方面的先例。


Such revenueconcentration long has been quietly acknowledged in the casino industry, but the Bwin information may be the first to show it with hard public data.


这个话题在博彩行业中颇为敏感，因为业界的批评家经常以利润集中度作为赌场盘剥嗜赌顾客的论点，而赌场高管往往对此不以为然。


The issue is a sensitive one in the industry because gambling critics often cite revenueconcentration as one sign that casinos exploit gambling addicts, which executives dispute.


曾经为数十家赌场提供过咨询服务的营销专家安德鲁·克勒巴诺夫(Andrew Klebanow)表示："从政治的角度上讲，我们并不愿意向外界提及博彩行业的利润集中度高于其他行业的这个话题。"克勒巴诺夫还表示，Bwin的数据与他本人的估算结果相符，据他估算，很多美国赌场从10%的客户那里获取了约90%的利润。他的计算是建立在赌场机密资料的基础之上的。（两名教授发现，就上文提及的土著赌场而言，9.3%的赌客为该赌场创造了80%的利润。）


'Politically, we don't want to talk about it being more concentrated than other industries,' said Andrew Klebanow, a marketing specialist who has consulted for dozens of casinos. He said the Bwin results are in line with his own estimates, based on confidential casino data, that many U.S. casinos get about 90% of their revenue from 10% of customers. (The two professors found that 9.3% of the gamblers at the Native American casino produced 80% of the group's revenue.)


吉姆·基尔比(Jim Kilby)曾经是一名教授，撰写过三本有关赌场管理的书。基尔比表示，Bwin玩家如此之低的赢家比例甚至连他都没有料到，这应该会令赌客感到警醒。


Jim Kilby, a former professor who has written three books on casino management, said the scant number of winners among Bwin customers was surprising even to him, and should be educational to gamblers.


尽管赌客知道赌场肯定是优势一方，但他表示，"大众并没有算清这道"有关乘数效应的"算术题。赌场游戏就像步冲打孔机，你玩得越多，输得就越多"。


Although gamblers know the house has an edge, he said, 'the average person doesn't understand the math' of the multiplier effect: 'Casino games are nibbling machines, and the more nibbles you have, the bigger your losses.'


Bwin的数据确定无疑地印证了这一点。赌瘾最小的玩家（即那些两年中所下赌注总金额最低的10%的玩家）赢钱的比率也最高。他们中约17%的人最终以盈利收场——尽管这一比例不算高，但仍然好过豪赌客区区5.4%的赢钱比率。




在全部4,222名赌客中，两年间只有七人的盈利超过了5,000美元，而损失超过5,000美元的却有217人。这使大额输家与大额赢家的比例达到了31：1。


The Bwin data clearly show that. The lightest gamblers -- the 10% of customers who placed the fewest wagers over the two years -- also had the highest winning percentage. About 17% of them ended up in the black -- tough odds but still better than the dismal 5.4% winningpercentage of the heaviest gamblers.


编号为1357078的赌客是一位来自瑞士的男士，他在自己56岁时开立了账户。这位男士是一位典型的豪赌客。他平均每星期赌博三天，通常每天下注1,000次以上，每次的下注金额平均为九美元。在84%的日子里，他都以输钱收场。两年中，他总计亏损了110,000美元以上。


Among the whole group of 4,222 gamblers, just seven won more than $5,000 (3,698 euros) over the two years, while 217 lost more than $5,000. That's a 31-1 ratio of big losers to big winners.




Gambler No. 1357078, a Swiss man who was 56 years old when he opened his account, was a classic heavy gambler. He played an average of three days a week, typically placing more than 1,000 bets per day and averaging $9 per bet. He lost on 84% of the days he gambled, and over the two years gambled away more than $110,000.


除了作弊，赌客在这种碰运气的游戏中赚钱的唯一机会就是撞个大运，然后金盆洗手。


Unless they cheat, about the only way gamblers can win at games of chance is to get lucky and then stop gambling.


这也正是编号为1381787的赌客成为最大赢家的方式。这位来自斯洛文尼亚的56岁男士通常每天只下为数不多的几次小额赌注。随后，他成功掘到金子，在10天之内连续两次赢得了超过14,000美元。在小规模受挫后，他停止了在Bwin网站上的赌博游戏，最终 赚约22,000美元。


That's how No. 1381787 emerged as the biggest overall winner. A 56-year-old Slovenian man, he typically placed only a few modest bets per day. Then he struck gold, twice winning more than $14,000 within 10 days. After suffering a partial setback, he stopped playing on the Bwin site, netting about $22,000.


另一个Bwin的数据库涵盖了扑克牌游戏。在一定程度上讲，扑克牌游戏是一项技巧游戏，游戏结果也反映了这一点。约有三分之一被哈佛的研究人员定位为"最热衷"的扑克玩家最终都以赢钱收场，在其余的玩家中，只有10%的人最终盈利。


A separate Bwin database covers poker play. Poker is partly a game of skill, and the outcomes reflect that. About one-third of the poker players classified as 'most involved' by the Harvard researchers ended up winning money over time, while just 10% of the rest ended up in the black.


尽管Bwin提供的数据显示，赌客赢钱的几率非常渺茫，但是该公司却在旗下的一个网站上宣传"玩传统赌场游戏，赢巨额大奖"，还鼓吹："胜算由你定"。


Despite the slim chance of winning shown by its own data, Bwin has been enticing gamblers on one of its sites to 'play for huge rewards on classic casino games,' adding 'the odds are certainly in your favor!'


Bwin的赌博责任经理约阿西姆·霍伊斯勒(Joachim Haeusler)表示，该公司提供的是娱乐服务，人们不应该"抱着致富的心态去赌博，因为他们不会因赌博而变富"。


Joachim Haeusler, Bwin's manager for responsible gaming, said the company provides entertainment and people shouldn't gamble 'based on the idea to get rich, because they won't.'


Mark Maremont / Alexandra Berzon


Mark Maremont / Alexandra Berzon


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