过完夏季假期归来的投资者重新考虑其投资组合时将面临两个重大问题:市场最近的抛售是否足以让股票具有吸引力?在中东局势动荡、美联储(Federal Reserve)准备缩减其一直以来为经济提供的帮助之际,市场本身能否实现秋季反弹?美国股票和债券今年大多数时候都实现上涨,但夏季期间各类投资近期都遇到问题。自8月2日达到今年高点之后,标普500指数已经下跌了4.5%,道琼斯指数下跌5.4%。纳斯达克综合指数较8月5日创下的52周高点下跌2.8%。
As investors return from summer holidays to reconsider their portfolios, they're facing two big questions: Has the market's recent selloff been enough to make stocks attractive? And can the market rouse itself for a fall rally, even as the Middle East turns volatile and the Federal Reserve prepares to reduce the help it has been giving the economy?
海外市场的情况更糟,尤其是印度、巴西、印尼和土耳其等新兴市场国家。道琼斯全球新兴市场指数(Dow Jones Total Stock Market Emerging Markets Index)自8月2日以来下跌6%以上。
U.S. stocks and bonds rose for much of the year, but all kinds of investments ran into recent trouble during the summer. After reaching a high for the year on Aug. 2, the S&P 500 has fallen 4.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 5.4%. The Nasdaq Composite Index is down 2.8% from its 52-week high hit Aug. 5.
债券也陷入困境。基准的10年期美国国债收益率今年5月初下降至1.6%,最近攀升至2.84%,为多年来最剧烈的波动之一。债券收益率与价格反向变化。上周五,10年期债券收益率为2.75%。
Foreign markets have done even worse, especially emerging-market nations such as India, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey. The Dow Jones Total Stock Market Emerging Markets Index has fallen over 6% since Aug. 2.
所有这些麻烦的背后是越来越多的人一致认为,经济已经持稳,足以让美联储逐渐缩减其宽松货币政策,该政策最为突出的就是每月850亿美元的债券购买行动。一些人说,缩减刺激的举措最早可能于本月推出。
Bonds also have struggled. After dropping to 1.6% in early May, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (which moves in the opposite direction to its price) rose to 2.84% recently, one of the sharpest moves in years. On Friday, the 10-year note's yield was at 2.75%.
分析人士说,这种情况令人沮丧,因为今年的涨势至少有一部分是缘于美联储的帮助,而不是经济基本面的好转。大多数经济学家预计,美国经济明年的增幅在3%左右,平淡无奇,收益预期也一直在下降。一些人警告说,如果美联储不再帮助支撑市场和经济,也就减少了人们对股市感到兴奋的理由。
Behind all the troubles is a growing consensus that the
economy has stabilized enough to allow the Fed to 'taper' its easy-money program, highlighted by the $85
billion in
monthly bond purchases. Some say this will come as soon as this month.
BMO Private Bank的首席投资长阿布林(Jack Ablin)说,现在人们普遍意识到美联储即将停止刺激措施,投资者们将被迫去 研作为支撑来源的收益和营收。他还说,今年的大部分上涨势头都是由美联储每月注入的现金推动的。
That's discouraging because at least some of this year's gains are due to the Fed's help, rather than improving fundamentals in the economy, analysts say. Most economists expect the U.S.
economy to grow at an unremarkable 3% or so next year, and
earnings expectations have been falling. If the Fed isn't around to help prop up the market and economy, there will be less reason to get excited about stocks, some caution.
对于买进美股迟疑不决的另一个原因是,9月一直是股市表现最差的月份。美银数据显示,从1928年迄今,市场平均在这个月下降1.1%,令9月成为一年中最糟糕的月份,不过分析人士并没有什么显著的理由来解释这种弱势表现。
'Now that it's widely acknowledged that Daddy's
taking the T-Bird away,' investors will be forced to look critically at
earnings and revenues as a source of support, says Jack Ablin, chief
investment officer of BMO Private Bank, adding that much of this year's rally has been fueled by the Fed's
monthly cash infusion.
与此同时,在叙利亚冲突持续升温之际,油价也在不断攀升,这可能会给消费支出带来压力。此外,随着这个财年行将结束,华盛顿将需要一份预算决议并展开更多有关债务上限的谈判,这些可能也会影响市场。
Another reason to be hesitant before buying U.S. stocks: September has been the worst month for stock performance. Going back to 1928, the market has been down 1.1% on average in the month, according to Merrill Lynch-making it by far the worst month of the year, though analysts have few
obvious reasons for the underperformance.
不过,有理由对外国市场保持更多警惕,因为事实证明美国经济可能会更有弹性。虽然预计美联储会放慢购债步伐,但没理由认为美联储将于近期加息。之所以认为美联储会后撤一步,主要原因是外界预计美国联邦赤字近期将有所改善。
Meanwhile, oil prices have climbed, as the
conflict in Syria has heated up, which could put
pressure on
consumer spending. The market also could be
affected by the need for a
budgetresolution in Washington as the
fiscal year comes to an end, and more debt-ceiling negotiations.
前交易员、博客"全球宏观经济观察"(Global Macro Monitor)的作者埃文斯(Gary Evans)指出,新兴市场之痛还在继续,投资者可能会将资金从海外撤回,投到美国市场上。
There's reason to be more
cautious about foreign markets than the U.S., however, since the U.S.
economy likely will prove more resilient. While the Fed is expected to slow its bond buying, there's no reason to
anticipate a move to raise interest rates any time soon. A big part of the reason the Fed will pull back is because near-term expectations for the
federaldeficit are improving.
对冲基金Queen Anne旗下Gate Capital Management的负责人凯利(Kathleen Kelley)说,接下来几个月,欧洲经济将再次陷入停滞,中国将稳定在这些水平,而美国经济则会在年底之前继续上行。
Gary Evans, a former
trader and author of the Global Macro Monitor blog, notes that investors could shift cash to U.S. markets from abroad, as the emerging-market pain continues.
10年期美国国债收益率上升也不过是回归正常水平。此前,大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退令国债收益率处在历史低位。很多分析人士说,预计利率水平上升还不足以削弱楼市明显的复苏。美国30年期固息抵押贷款利率目前为4.58%,高于两个月前的3.59%。
Kathleen Kelley, who runs hedge fund Queen Anne's Gate Capital Management in New York, says 'the next few months will show Europe stagnating again and China stabilizing around these levels. However, U.S. growth will continue to pick up through year-end.'
与此同时,股市继夏季的低迷之后变得更有吸引力。标普500指数的市盈率不到14倍(按今年的预期每股收益计算)。分析人士们说,这并不是一个明显的买进信号,但它显示出股价并不是格外的高,这也是投资者在大幅削减投资组合前应该三思的又一个原因。
An increase in 10-year Treasury rates simply returns them to a normalized range following a period of
historic lows in the aftermath of the deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression. The rise isn't expected to be enough to
undermine the housing market's
impressive recovery, most analysts say. The rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate
mortgage stands at 4.58%, up from 3.59% two months ago.
此外,一些分析人士说,随着来自利比亚等国的新供给进入市场,油价可能回落。同时,尽管9月份股市通常表现不佳,但一年的最后三个月通常会有较好的表现。
At the same time, stocks have become more
attractive on the heels of their summertime weakness. The S&P 500 is trading at a price/earnings multiple of less than 14 based on expected
earnings this year. That's not a blaring buy signal, analysts say, but it suggests the stock market isn't trading at especially
expensive levels-another reason investors should
hesitate before trimming too much from their portfolios.
美林策略师萨布拉马尼安(Savita Subramaian)说,2013年后半段和2014年初,科技、工业和能源类股将领涨。该公司建议投资者顶住重回债券的冲动(尽管目前收益率较高),继续留在股市,该公司称股票目前估值合理,不过还不到廉价的水平。
Meanwhile, oil prices could drop back as new supplies from Libya and
elsewhere come to the market, some analysts say. And while September is a historically poor month for stocks, the last three months of the year have usually been good ones.
Standard Life Investments全球策略负责人米利根(Andrew Milligan)认为,随着叙利亚冲突和全球央行的举措在今年最后几个月成为焦点,市场将依然动荡。但市场应该会支撑下去,因为他预计央行不会犯重大政策性错误。
Merrill Lynch strategist Savita Subramaian says technology,
industrial and
energy stocks will be the market's leaders in the latter part of 2013 and early 2014. The firm recommends investors
resist the urge to shift back to bonds,
despite higher interest rates, and stick with stocks, arguing that stocks now are fairly valued, though not at
bargain levels.