大宗商品投资者正在错失良机。
Commodities investors are missing out on the party.
与2012年9月的近期高位相比，道琼斯瑞银商品指数(Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index)已经回落了约14%。道琼斯瑞银商品指数包含20种大宗商品，如天然气、黄金和铜等。
Since its recent peak in September 2012, the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index, which includes 20 products such as natural gas, gold and copper, has fallen about 14%.
在此期间，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)却大幅攀升，包含派息在内的投资回报接近20%。此外，即使有关债券市场崩盘的讨论此起彼伏，但诸多债券市场交易所交易基金(exchange-traded fund, 简称ETF)──比如安硕美国核心总体债券市场ETF(iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market)──却只下跌了几个百分点，甚至有些配置了更高风险债券（比如高收益率债券）的ETF还赚到了钱。
During the same period, the S&P 500 stock index has taken off, returning close to 20% including dividends. And even amid all the talk of a bond-market crash, a broad-based bond-market exchange-traded fund such as iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market has lost only a few percent, while exchange-traded funds that own riskier bonds, like high-yield ones, have in some cases made money.
这与人们期望的情景大相径庭。在1998年至2008年期间，许多原材料价格都实现了大幅上涨，这令消费者不禁高谈阔论起大宗商品的"超级周期"来，中国和其他新兴市场的增长是推动大宗商品本轮长期涨势的原因。
That wasn't how it was supposed to play out. Between 1998 and 2008, prices of many raw materials soared, prompting investors to talk of a commodities 'supercycle,' a long-term boom to be driven by growth in China and other emerging markets.
但是，金融危机给大宗商品市场带来了沉重的打击。目前，不少大宗商品的价格仍未恢复到危机前的高位，一些分析人士因此断言：超级周期已经终结了。
But the financialcrisis dealt a huge blow to commodities. Many of them have failed to regain their precrisis highs, leading some analysts to declare the supercycle dead.
一些投资组合经理青睐大宗商品，因为大宗商品的价格不会随着股票和债券的价格上下波动，因此能够为股价和债券价格的波动提供某种对冲。但是，这种策略并不足以抵御风险：例如，2008年，道琼斯瑞银商品指数下跌了37%，与一只投资于美国主要股票的ETF跌幅相当。
Some portfolio managers like commodities because their prices don't go up and down in sync with those of stocks and bonds, thus providing a kind of hedge against their movements. But that isn't a fail-safe strategy: In 2008, for example, the DJ-UBS index plummeted 37%, the same amount as an ETF of major U.S. stocks.
在近期大宗商品价格走低后，你是否有意尝试这方面的投资呢？如果你有这样的打算，有两种办法可以让你进行对原材料的投资：通过基金购买大宗商品，或投资于生产大宗商品的公司。
Should you be tempted to buy commodities after their recent slump? If you are, there are two ways to gain exposure to raw materials: buying them through a fund, or buying companies that produce them.
一些分析人士指出，对大宗商品和大宗商品基金的直接投资有两个主要弊端。首先，它们本身不能创造任何收益，这意味着那些把钱投在大宗商品类资产上的投资者完全是在押注其价格的上涨。但是，长期来看，大宗商品价格倾向于保持与通货膨胀率相同的增速。
Direct investments in commodities and commodity funds have two major drawbacks, say some analysts. First, they don't produce any income, meaning those who put their money in commodity assets are betting entirely on price appreciation. But commodity prices over the long haul tend to march in lockstep with inflation.
总部位于美国密歇根州特洛伊市(Troy)的投资组合解决方案公司(Portfolio Solutions) 的瑞克•费利(Rick Ferri)表示："大宗商品不能创造收益。所以投资大宗商品意义何在？"投资组合解决方案公司没有将大宗商品纳入客户的投资组合。
'There's no growth in commodities. So what's the point of doing this?' says Rick Ferri of Troy, Mich.-based investmentmanager Portfolio Solutions, which doesn't include commodities in clients' portfolios.
即使大宗商品是一个不错的多元化长期投资工具，我们也很难将投资者期望看到的大宗商品价格变化与持有大宗商品的基金固有的成本及交易陷阱区分开来。
And even if commodities were a good long-term diversifier, it is difficult to separate the change in commodity prices
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