苹果公司(Apple Inc.)在华尔街面临着一场身份危机。在苹果公司将于周二公布最新季报之际,它也在绞尽脑汁应对不安的投资者和最近股价的暴跌。分析人士预测,此次季报中可能公布苹果公司的收益10年来首次出现同比季度下滑。去年9月,苹果股价曾创下每股702.10美元的高点,而最近的股价下跌令其市值蒸发了约2,800亿美元。
Apple Inc. is facing an
identitycrisis on Wall Street.
投资者的担心主要根源在于,作为一家传统硬件生产商,华尔街如何对待和评估这家位于加州库珀蒂诺的公司。一派分析师和部分投资者说,有强有力的证据显示,应该从一种不同的角度看待苹果公司:将它视为一家软硬件生产商。
As Apple prepares to report what analysts
project may be the company's first year-over-year quarterly
earnings decline in a
decade on Tuesday, it is also grappling with jittery investors and a recent share-price
plunge that has wiped about $280
billion off its market capitalization since its stock reached a high of $702.10 last September.
这其中的差别很重要。如果它继续被视为一个硬件生厂商,在智能手机和平板电脑日益商业化、消费者口味改变之际,苹果在iPhone和iPad等产品的推动下所取得的一连串成功可能很快嘎然而止。黑莓(BlackBerry)生产商Research In Motion Ltd.等公司就有这样的教训。该公司的高科技硬件很快被苹果公司的产品所超越。
Much of the
investor nervousness is rooted in how Wall Street is treating and valuing the Cupertino, Calif., company as a
traditionalhardware maker. One camp of analysts and some investors said there is strong evidence that Apple should be viewed in a different light: as a software-hardware hybrid.
如果苹果被归为一家软硬件生产商,对该公司的估值方式可能更像是对互联网和软件生产商的估值,这类公司有着经常性的收入流,其市盈率常常高于硬件公司。
The
distinction matters. If it continues to be seen as a
hardware business, Apple's
streak --
driven by products like the iPhone and iPad -- could run out quickly as smartphones and tablets get commoditized and
consumer tastes change. It is a lesson
learned by companies like BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion Ltd., whose tech
hardware was quickly eclipsed by products from Apple itself.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)说,市场将苹果公司视为一个与产品周期挂钩的消费硬件公司,周期性推动了波动性的收入和收益流。但她说,这种看法并不全面,因为吸引苹果公司用户的是一个可以提供使用方便的产品的品牌,类似于亚马逊(Amazon.com)或NetApp。
If Apple is classified as a software-hardware hybrid, the company could be valued more like Internet and software makers that have recurring
revenue streams and that often trade at higher price-to-earnings ratios than
hardware firms.
苹果公司发言人拒绝在周二收益报告发布前置评。
'The market views Apple as a
consumerhardware company tied to product cycles that drive volatile
revenue and
earnings streams,' says Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty. But that view isn't complete, she says, since 'Apple customers buy into a brand that offers ease of use similar to companies like Amazon.com or
enterprise companies like NetApp.'
在华尔街将苹果归为硬件生产商的情况下,该公司的预期市盈率(基于未来12个月的每股收益)为8.6倍。在截至去年12月的一个季度,该公司实现了令人吃惊的130亿美元的利润。惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard Co.)目前的市盈率为5.6倍,该公司在最近一个季度实现利润12亿美元。陷入困境的个人电脑生产商戴尔公司(Dell Inc.)市盈率为8.4倍,该公司今年早些时候签署了一份收购协议后股价走高。
An Apple
spokesman declined to
comment ahead of Tuesday's earning report.
苹果的毛利率约40%。毛利率是衡量一个公司赚钱效率的重要指标。苹果的毛利率约为惠普和戴尔的两倍。
With Wall Street categorizing Apple as a
hardware maker, investors value the company -- which made an astounding $13
billion in profits in the quarter ended in December -- at 8.6 times expected
earnings per share for the next 12 months. Investors are currently valuing Hewlett-Packard Co., which made $1.2
billion in profits during its most recent quarter, at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6. Troubled PC maker Dell Inc., whose stock price inflated after signing a buyout deal earlier this year, trades at a P/E ratio of 8.4.
苹果有一些不同于许多其他制造业企业的特质。苹果用户常常每年升级他们的苹果产品,比惠普(Hewlett-Packard)或戴尔等技术硬件企业的用户通常为四年的个人电脑升级周期频繁得多。
Apple's gross margins are around 40%, an important
measure of the company's
efficiency at making money. That is
roughly twice as high as H-P's and Dell's.
虽然惠普和戴尔一直试图增强其业务中的企业软件方面,但苹果的操作系统和iTunes软件已经无所不在。苹果同时还有超过5亿个与信用卡绑定的App Store账号(同时也是销售新服务的客户群),因此而获得了循环的软件和服务收入流。苹果上一财季来自iTunes和其他软件及服务的营收为37亿美元,占其总营收的7%。
Apple has characteristics that
differ from many other
hardware businesses. Its customers often upgrade their Apple products annually, far more frequently than the four-year PC upgrade cycles typically found at tech
hardware businesses including Hewlett-Packard or Dell.
这令苹果至少具备了一部分企业软件公司的特性,比如存储硬件和服务公司EMC Corp.,该公司市盈率为11.4倍。一些分析师将苹果与康卡斯特(Comcast Corp.)这类有线电视公司类比,康卡斯特也从付费用户那里获得稳定的收入流,其市盈率为16.4倍。
While H-P and Dell have tried beefing up the
enterprise software side of their business, Apple's operating
system and iTunes software is already ubiquitous. Apple also has more than 500 million accounts for its App Store tied to credit cards -- and a
customer base to sell new services to -- giving it a recurring software and services
revenue stream. Apple took in
revenue of $3.7
billion from iTunes and other software and services in its last quarter, or 7% of its total revenue.
苹果首席执行长库克(Tim Cook)一直在劝说华尔街改变认为苹果是以硬件为中心的看法。
That gives Apple at least some properties of
enterprise software companies like
storagehardware and services company EMC Corp., which has a P/E ratio of 11.4. Some analysts
recommend a
comparison to cable companies like Comcast Corp., which also enjoys steady
revenue from subscriptions and has a P/E ratio of 16.4.
库克在今年2月的一次投资者大会上说,因为我们不是一家硬件公司,我们有其他的赚钱和回报股东的方式。他还说,苹果不同于其他硬件企业,我们并不认为把产品卖出去就是与客户关系的终点,相反,这只是起点。
At Apple, Chief Executive Tim Cook has been lobbying Wall Street to change its hardware-centric views.
然而,即使华尔街改变对苹果的看法,将它视为集软硬件于一体的企业,该公司的麻烦也不会结束。硬件公司借软件保持优势的历史很短。举例来说,索尼公司(Sony Corp.)的随身听(Walkman)无法与iTunes和iPod竞争,因此而将霸主地位拱手让给了苹果。RIM通过其电子邮件服务实现了超高销量,然而却因苹果及其App Store而黯然失色。
At an
investorconference in February, Mr. Cook said 'because we're not a
hardware company, we have other ways to make money and
reward shareholders.' He added that
unlike other
hardware business, 'we don't look at the sale of a product as our last part of the
relationship with the customer. It's the first.'
现在有人认为,有迹象表明谷歌(Google Inc.)可能凭借其在线服务让苹果陷入同样境地。研究公司派杰(Piper Jaffray)的分析师芒斯特(Gene Munster)说,苹果打造了优秀的软件,但在数据同步服务iCloud等软件服务方面的成绩只有"C"。
Even if Wall Street shifts its view on Apple as a software-hardware hybrid, however, the company's woes aren't over. The history of
hardware companies that stayed on top through software is short. Sony Corp., for instance, lost its
supremacy to Apple when the Walkman couldn't
compete with iTunes and the iPod. RIM enjoyed huge sales spurred by its email service, only to have that eclipsed by Apple and its App Store.
芒斯特说,尽管苹果的用户忠诚度仍然很高,美国八至九成的iPhone用户说他们的下一步手机仍然会是iPhone,但时间不等人。他说,人们喜欢自己的苹果产品并愿意购买,但他们有六个月的时间,一定会有很酷的产品出现。
Now, some say there are signs Google Inc. may do the same to Apple with online services. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says Apple builds great software, but gets a 'C' on software services like data syncing service iCloud.
许多分析师认为,苹果的下一个重大软件产品会是支付方面的──这是一项粘着度很高的服务,可能让用户继续像iTunes和App Store那样购买苹果产品。不过这可能需要多年时间才能有收获,而苹果现在就面临着提振利润的压力。
And while
customerloyalty to Apple remains high with 80% to 90% of U.S. iPhone users
saying their next phone will be an iPhone, the clock is ticking, Mr. Munster says. 'People love their Apple products and want to buy them but they have six months. There has to be something cool coming.'
接受汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)调查的分析师们预计,苹果第二财季将报告营收增长8%,至4,230亿美元。苹果的利润预计为95亿美元,较上年同期的116亿美元有所下降。
Many analysts believe Apple's next big software play will be payments