酷兔英语


Investors and Wall Street analysts rejoiced at the Dow Jones Industrial Average's record close on Tuesday. Economists were unimpressed.


对于道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)周二收盘刷新历史纪录一事,投资者和华尔街分析师欢欣鼓舞,经济学家们却好像不为所动。



Seen from the perspective of the dismal science, the Dow's close isn't a record at all. That is because economists adjust share-price movements for inflation, a factor stock analysts prefer to ignore. Once inflation is factored in, the Dow's stellar run over the past few years looks more pedestrian and the investors who have ridden its wave less wealthy.


从经济学这门"沉闷的科学"的角度看,道指周二收盘并没有创下什么历史纪录。这样说是因为经济学家会考虑到通胀对股价走势的影响。股票分析师一般更愿意忽略通胀因素。若把通胀纳入考虑,道指过去几年的飞速上涨看起来就没有那么不凡,乘坐道指顺风车的投资者也就没赚那么多钱。



With consumer-price increases removed, something students learn about in Economics 101, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is far from a record: It hasn't been in real record territory in more than 13 years.


在剔除物价因素的情况下(这也是经济学入门级课程所教的),道指距离历史高点还差得远:已经超过13年没有涉足实际纪录区间了。



The last nominal Dow record, in October 2007, wasn't a record at all once inflation is removed. The last real, or inflation-adjusted, record was on Jan. 14, 2000.


道指上一次创下名义纪录是在2007年10月,而若剔除通胀因素,则完全称不上是什么历史记录。真正的(即经通胀调整的)历史高位是在2000年1月14日创下的。



It is something that analysts and investors should take more seriously, said Richard Sylla, a professor of financial history at New York University's Stern School of Business. 'People could be fooled if they don't pay attention to inflation,' he said.


纽约大学斯特恩商学院(New York University's Stern School of Business)金融史教授西拉(Richard Sylla)说,分析师和投资者应该更加重视通胀。他说,如果不注意这个因素,就可能会上当。



The effects of inflation are relatively small over the short term. But over a longer period, the distortions can be significant. Ignoring inflation, Mr. Sylla said, the Dow appears to be roughly 140 times its level of 100 years ago, an enormous gain. But removing price increases and counting only real gains, the Dow is roughly seven times its level of 100 years ago, a good gain but far from what it appears.


通胀的影响从短期来看相对较小,但长期看,通胀造成的失真现象可能非常明显。西拉说,忽略通胀因素,道指目前似乎是100年前的140倍左右,这是个巨大的涨幅;但若剔除物价上涨因素只计算实际涨幅的话,道指只是100年前的七倍左右,表现还算不错,但远小于表面上看起来的涨幅。



Even over the past 14 years, a period that is important to many ordinary investors, the difference is significant. In nominal terms, the Dow today appears to have risen 24% from the record it hit in January 2000. But taking inflation into account, it still is more than 10% below that record.


即使在过去14年这段对很多普通投资者来说非常重要的时期里,道指的名义与实际涨幅的差别也很大。从名义值来看,道指目前较2000年1月的纪录高位上涨了24%。但若考虑到通胀,道指仍比那个高位低10%以上。



For investors planning for retirement, ignoring inflation can mean vastly understating how much investments will be worth in the future. That can be even more the case for bonds than for stocks, Mr. Sylla said, because the interest payments that investors receive from bonds don't change as prices rise. The longer the bond's maturity, the more inflation eats into the bond's return.


对于那些为退休后的生活做规划的投资者来说,忽略通胀可能会严重错估投资在未来的价值。西拉说,如果投资的是债券而不是股票,可能更是如此,因为投资者从债券中获得的利息收入不会随着物价的上涨而变化。债券的期限越长,通胀对债券回报就侵蚀得越厉害。



Because most ordinary people are investing now to cover future needs, it also is essential to take into account likely future inflation, which will eat into the real value of future returns, he said.


西拉说,因为大多数普通人目前都在投资,以满足未来的需求,所以考虑未来可能的通胀情况就至关重要。通胀会侵蚀未来投资回报的实际价值。



'You could be fooled if you get a 10% return on your investment. But if prices go up 10%, you won't be any better off,' even though you appear to have a big gain, he said.


西拉说,如果你的投资能有10%的回报,你可能会觉得不错,但如果物价也上涨了10%,你的财富就没有增值,尽管看起来好像是大赚了一笔。



Wall Street hates this reality. On Tuesday, the Dow closed at 14253.77. That surpassed the nominal 2007 record of 14164.53 and eclipsed the high of 11722.98 hit in 2000.


华尔街痛恨这种现实。周二,道指报收14253.77点,超过了2007年14164.53点的名义值,也超过了2000年的11722.98点。



But since the end of 1994, when the 1990s stock boom began, consumer prices have risen 55% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. To see how much stock prices are up in real terms, analysts need to remove that inflation.


但美国劳工统计局的数据显示,自从1994年底以来(即上世纪90年代股票繁荣期的开始),美国物价已经上涨了55%。为了解股价的真实涨幅,分析人士应剔除这段时间的通胀影响。



Measuring everything in 1994 dollars reduces the gains and makes the Dow chart less exciting, but as economists like to put it, the numbers are real. Tuesday's close is just 9256.38 once inflation is removed. That doesn't even match the inflation-adjusted high of 10194.80 hit in 2007. And it is far from the real record of 10424.28 hit Jan. 14, 2000, according to calculations by Bespoke Investment Group. In inflation-adjusted terms, the Dow still has more than doubled since 1994, but it shows no progress at all since the first part of 1999.


若以1994年的美元来衡量如今的现实,不仅收益会大打折扣,道指图表也会显得不那么令人兴奋。但正如经济学家喜欢说的,这些才是真实的数字。若剔除通胀,道指周二仅收在9256.38点,甚至还不如经通胀调整的2007年高位10194.80点。据投资集团Bespoke Investment Group计算,道指周二的收盘远低于2000年1月14日创下的实际高位10424.28点。经通胀调整后,道指自1994年以来仍上涨了一倍多,但自1999年上半年以来便没有丝毫上涨。



To reach a real, inflation-adjusted record by this measure, the Dow would need to hit 16052.22 in today's nominal terms, up 13% from Tuesday's close.


按照这种方法衡量,道指要想创下经通胀调整的实际纪录,应达到16052.22点的名义值,也就是说,要比周二的收盘点数高出13%。



E.S. Browning


E.S. Browning