酷兔英语
文章总共1页

GUEST MENTOR James Beshara, co-founder and CEO of Crowdtilt.com: Here are the top five trends I see in tech startups for 2013:


邀导师、Crowdtilt.com联合创始人兼CEO贝沙拉(James Beshara):以下是我眼中2013年科技初创企业的五大整体趋势:



1. Our phones are becoming our remote controls for life. If we have a need for it in our daily lives, there should and will be an icon and app for it on our phone. It's as simple as that. Our phones are our emergency kit for first-world problems.


1. 手机将成为生活中的遥控器。如果生活中有某种需求,手机上就应该、也将会出现某个图标和应用程序。就这么简单。手机就是安逸生活中遇到麻烦时的急救包。



Whether it's a taxi or a ride in the rain (Uber, Lyft), a mechanic (YourMechanic), a doctor's appointment (ZocDoc), the literal remote control (AppleTV), a personal assistant (Exec), a cake-baker (Zaarly), groceries (Instacart), or you're getting a little chilly and want the temperature in the house turned up (Nest), our phones are the concierge. I expect this phenomenon to continue in 2013 and as we run into times in our daily lives when we don't have an icon for it just yet. Someone will be working hard to create it.


不管是坐出租车还是雨中搭便车(Uber、Lyft),抑或是请修理工(YourMechanic)、预约医生(ZocDoc)、当真正的摇控器使用(AppleTV)、请个人助理(Exec)、请面包师(Instacart)、订日用百货(Instacart),或者是有点冷,想让屋子暖和一些(Nest),手机就是你的管家。我预计,2013年这种现象仍将持继续,而且我们日常生活中常常遇到某个应用程序还没有开发出来的情况,有人会努力开发这些程序。



I understand that many of these services are not rolled out across the entire country (much less the world), but trust me when I say that the convenience these services offer blows my mind every time I use them.


我知道,很多这类服务还没有在全国推广,更不用说在世界范围内推广。但说真的,我每一次使用这类服务,都为它们带来的便利感到震撼。



2. Crowdfunding behavior will spill beyond their silos. We as Internet consumers are becoming increasingly comfortable with a new, or some would say, a very old, style of commerce. It's one where a patron, client or customer purchases something that doesn't exist yet -- a la Groupon (via bulk-buying and daily deals), Kickstarter (via crowdfunding a documentary or a hardware product into existence), or our own site, Crowdtilt, making ambitious group experiences possible. These new types of consumer models require money, a group of people, and a threshold of demand that must be met before the exchange is made. This communication through commerce makes a lot of sense for all parties: A seller is guaranteed demand before production and a buyer gets to take advantage of the de-risked production, getting a higher ticket item for a lower price than she or he would receive otherwise.


2. 众筹(Crowdfunding)行为将会普及。作为互联网用户,我们对某种新的(有些人会说是非常陈旧的)商业模式越来越感到习惯。在众筹模式中,客户购买某种尚不存在的东西──通过Groupon(团购)、Kickstarter(用众筹方式制作纪录片或五金制品)或我们自己的网站Crowdtilt──从而使大胆的集体体验成为可能。这些新型消费模式需要用钱,需要有一群人,在交易之前还必须达到一定的需求水平。这种商业往来对各方都很有意义:卖方在产品生产出来之前就已经稳住需求,买方能以更低的价格买到更高端的产品,这是因为生产的风险降低让他们受益。



In 2012 we also saw massively successful crowdfunded projects like App.net and Lockitron.com raise millions on their own, with commerce models borrowed from crowdfunding sites. In 2013, I think this commerce model will continue to spill beyond the silos that pioneered the models in the first place.


2012年,App.net和Lockitron.com等获得巨大成功的众筹项目还借用众筹网站的商业模式自行筹资数百万美元。在2013年,我认为这种商业模式将从最初引领模式之先的小圈子往外继续延伸。



(Crowdtilt just launched the world's first international crowdfunding API this month, so you can say this prediction is either completely self-promotional or that we believe in this trend so strongly we put our money where our mouth is by fostering it.)


(Crowdtilt刚刚在这个月推出世界上第一款国际众筹应用程序接口(API),所以你可以说这项预测完全是自我推销,也可以说我们因为如此坚信这一趋势,所以才拿出真金白银来促进它的发展,践行我们口头鼓吹的东西。)



3. Sensors, your time is now. In our pockets, we've got a device that can control, read and display information from the world around us -- and it can do it all continuously and wirelessly.


3. 传感器们,你们可以大展身手了。我们的口袋里都有一部终端,它可以控制、读取、显示我们周围世界的信息,而且这部终端可以通过无线网络持续进行这一活动。



Furthermore, we have hardware tinkerers coming out of the woodwork to blow us away with their inventions and innovative uses for inexpensive, readilyavailable sensors. From things like Xbox Kinnect and Belkin's Wemo Motion, to Fitbit and Jawbone's Up, to replacements for standard cardboard board games (Sifteo), or startups like Wattvision (wattvision.com), sensors are being used in incrediblyinexpensive and impressive ways.


另外,还有鼓捣硬件的人们突然跳出来,用他们的发明,用他们为便宜、现成的传感器开发的新颍使用方法让我们眼前一亮。从游戏机传感器Xbox Kinnect到能够让人无线控制家电启动或关闭的插座Wemo Motion,到可以跟踪人运动情况的Fitbit和可以监测人体活动的手环Jawbone Up,再到普通纸质桌面游戏的替代品(如Sifteo),或Wattvision(wattvision.com)等初创公司,我们都可以看到传感器被以极其便宜又让人大开眼界的方式使用着。



And this doesn't even include the contactless payment systems using NFC/RFID ('near field communication' and 'radio-frequency identification') readers and devices that we've been hearing about for a few years now. (RFID readers and devices are projected to triple in sales by 2014 and reach a world-wide market size of $20bn USD.


而这甚至还没有包括使用近距离无线通讯/无线射频识别(NFC/RFID)电子阅读器和装置的非接触式支付系统,近几年来我们一直在听人说起这一系统。有人预计,到2014年时,无线射频识别电子阅读器和装置的年销售额将是目前水平的三倍,全球市场规模将达到200亿美元。



If smart devices like our phones, our tablets and the sophisticated consolenavigation systems in our vehicles are the brains, it's time to give them limbs.


如果说我们的手机、平板电脑等智能装置以及我们汽车中尖端的导航系统是"大脑"的话,那么现在就是赋予它们"四肢"的时候了。



4. 'Hollow Giants' looking for business models (or suitors). Tumblr, Foursquare, Quora and Twitter are perceived as massive companies within the startup ecosystem. But in terms of revenue-generating businesses, they barelyregister on the radar. And since the Facebook IPO, social hasn't really had the shine it once did within the public or private markets.


4. "空心巨人"们将寻找商业模式(或追求者)。Tumblr、Foursquare、Quora和推特(Twitter)都被认为是初创企业群体里的大型企业。但如果以能够创造收入的业务来衡量,它们都还是些微不足道的企业。自从Facebook进行首次公开募股(IPO)以来,社交媒体公司在公开市场和私人市场上就再未有过真正出众的表现。



Do I think social is dead? No. On the contrary, I think the Web is still ripe for a more social experience, but I think that while these companies have proven they can get an audience, the time has come to see whether they can build a business off that audience or whether that audience is worth an acquisition by the likes of Google or Yahoo.


难道在我看来社交媒体行业已经寿终正寝了吗?并非如此。相反,我认为网络依然具备让网民获得更多社交体验的条件,但我同时也认为,虽然这些社交媒体公司已经证明了自己能够吸引到用户群,但这些公司现在必须让人看到他们能够建立起以自身用户群为基础的业务,或是向外界证明他们的用户群体值得被谷歌(Google)或雅虎(Yahoo)等公司花钱接手。



Whatever these massively funded and massively valued startups do in 2013, their behavior will likely be dictated by the need to prop up their massive valuations. This kind of pressure or challenge is nothing new for the founders and executives that got their companies to this point, but it will be interesting to see which direction each startup takes in the next 12 months.


无论这些已吸纳了大笔投资并且被给予很高估值的初创企业在2013年做什么,预计他们的行为都需要能向外界证明其高估值是合理。对那些将此类企业发展到如今这个地步的创始人和高管来说,这种压力或挑战并不是什么新鲜事,但观察每家初创公司未来12个月内会选择何种发展方向将是件有趣的事。



5. It's been easy to start a business in 2012, but to stick around past 2013 will be tough. I'm told it's been a good day to be an entrepreneur. I'd say it's been a great day to be a consumer. We've got apps, services and competition for our dollars and eyeballs, and smart people working to solve a lot of our problems.


5. 在2012年创业是件容易的事,但让自己创办的企业熬过2013年将是件很难的事。人们对我说现在正是自己创业的好时候。但我想说的是,现在更是充当一名消费者的好时候。企业正竞相推出各种应用软件和服务以吸引我们关注并购买,那些聪明的人都在致力于为我们解决许多问题。



An entrepreneur has had good terms on financing the past two years, but has it really been that good to be her in this environment? Financing doesn't make a company. Making a company makes a company, and that's never been tougher. For every reason it's been great to be a consumer, all the apps and all the services, it has meant that the competition to build a great company has never been tougher. There's competition for eyeballs and customers, of course, but there's also increased competition for further financing or competition in finding the key hires that can take your company from 5 to 50 and from 50 to 500. The number of startups have out-paced the amount of funding there is (commonly referred to as a series-A crunch), but perhaps more importantly, the amount of startups launched in the past two years has outpaced the amount of great people out there to hire.


企业家们过去两年里一直享受着良好的融资环境,但在这种环境下他们真的过得很惬意吗?要办好一家企业光解决融资问题还不行。成功的经营才是办好企业的关键,而经营企业的难度从未像现在这样大。不管怎么说,当消费者一直是件大大的乐事,从市场上那些层出不穷的应用软件和服务看,建立一家伟大的公司从未像现在这样难。企业固然需要为争夺外界的关注和消费者而竞争,但他们获得进一步融资的竞争压力也在加大,他们还需为找到对企业发展至关重要的雇员而相互竞争,这些人有能力帮助企业从5人的规模发展到50人、500人。现在初创企业的数量太多,能够提供给他们的资金已经满足不了他们的需要(这通常是指第一阶段融资存在匮乏),但或许更为重要的是,过去两年中创办的那些初创企业,其数量之多已经让可供他们聘用的高水平雇员显得相对不足。



In 2013, we're going to see a lot of consolidation of entrepreneurs coming together to build companies. You know, like they said in Lost: 'Live together, die alone.'


在2013年,我们将看到大量企业合并的事例。正如电视连续剧《迷失》(Lost)中那句台词说的:有福共享,有难独担(Live together, die alone)。



Some honorable mentions include: The continued rise in collaborative consumption and our growing 'Global Village' (built on identity and reputation, like Lyft's donation model or the growing comfort with renting out your apartment or car via Airbnb or GetAround), the rise of data analytics and data science (we solved storing it, now, um, what can we do with it?), and the impending awesomeness of QR codes (totally kidding or am I?... I am).


还有一些值得一提的趋势是:合作消费的继续兴起以及我们"全球村"的不断壮大(这类消费模式是基于对彼此身份和信誉的了解而发展起来的,比如私车共享应用程序Lyft的捐赠模式,以及通过Airbnb和GetArounds这些旅游用房租赁网站将自己的公寓房或汽车出租出去这一日渐流行的模式),数据分析和数据科学的兴起(我们已经解决了存储数据的问题,现在我们应该想想能用储存在手的数据做些什么), 以及即将大放异彩的二维码(QR codes)(我这纯粹是在开玩笑还是认真的?......我是认真的)。



文章总共1页