Amid the hoopla of the Guangzhou auto show, which opened to the press Thursday, management consulting firm McKinsey & Company delivered a depressing message to auto makers: The fast-growing China auto market could become a lot less profitable.
周四对媒体开放的广州车展好不热闹，然而管理咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey & Company)向汽车生产商传递了一条令人沮丧的消息：中国汽车市场在迅速扩张的同时，盈利性却有可能大幅降低。
In a report released on Wednesday on China's auto market up to 2020, consultants Arthur Wang, Wenkan Liao and Arnt-Philipp Hein say auto prices in the world's largest market for cars have been eroding by between 4% to 6% on a compoundannual basis over the past decade.
在周三发布的关于2020年之前中国汽车市场的报告中，麦肯锡的咨询师王平(Arthur Wang)、廖文侃和海因(Arnt-Philipp Hein)说，按复合变化率计算，世界最大汽车市场中国的汽车价格在过去10年每年下降4%到6%。
'Prices are expected to fall over the next five to 10 years,' the authors warn.
报告作者警告说，预计未来五到10年价格还会下降。
The reason, explains another McKinsey consultant, Paul Gao, isn't upgrades. The firm believes increasingly affluent customers will move up to bigger, more expensive cars with more features. Indeed, the McKinsey report suggests higher-end cars will crowd out the market for the least expensive cars, so that vehicles priced at less than 80,000 yuan will shrink from roughly one third of the market now to one quarter by 2020.
另一位麦肯锡咨询师高旭(Paul Gao)说，降价原因不是产品的更新换代。麦肯锡相信越来越富裕的消费者会将自己的座驾升级为更大、更贵、功能更全的汽车。事实上麦肯锡上述报告就提出，高端汽车将挤占廉价汽车的市场，到2020年，8万元以下汽车的市场份额将从现在的三分之一左右降至四分之一。
The problem, he says, is that the rush to add features will pressure margins. Advertising and labor costs will also rise. 'The profitability trend will come under pressure in years to come,' Mr. Gao says.
他说，问题在于厂商争先恐后地为汽车添加功能，将对利润率造成挤压。广告和劳动力成本也将上升。高旭说，未来几年车企的盈利能力将会承受压力。
Chinese and foreign auto makers are likely to overlook this inconvenient trend in favor of more encouraging figures.
中外汽车厂商可能会忽略这种不好的趋势，着眼于一些更加鼓舞人心的数字。
For example, 60% of Chinese will live in cities by 2020, compared with around half now. This increase in the urbanization rate will have increase people
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