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企业丧失对稀土的兴趣

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Companies that bet on rare earths as a hot commodity play are canceling investments or switching attention to other metals like gold after being caught by a sharp fall in prices this year.


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While smaller in size than industry heavyweights like Molycorp Inc. and Lynas Corp. Ltd., these mining companies are responsible for millions of dollars of spending each year to find and develop elements used in products ranging from iPads to Prius cars.


些将稀土当做热门大宗商品并在其身上下注的企业，目前正纷纷取消在这方面的投资，或是将注意力转向黄金等其他金属，稀土价格今年的大幅下跌令它们遭了秧。



Many of them capitalized on fears of a China-induced supply shortage of rare earths two years ago to attract new investors and debut on some of the world's biggest stock markets. Some -- like Australia's Kimberley Rare Earths Ltd. -- were so confident of the commodity's outlook thatthey enshrined it in their name.


这些公司虽然在规模方面比采矿业龙头企业Molycorp Inc.和Lynas Corp.等要小，但它们每年用于稀土勘探和开发的资金达数亿美元。稀土被广泛用于从平板电脑iPad到油电混合动力轿车普锐斯(Prius)等诸多产品。



But now, these companies have started to turn their back on rare earths as fears of overinvestment and a supply glut drive down prices of some elements by as much as 80%. With sentiment in the wider mining industry souring on concerns over the slow pace of the global economic recovery, many of them are also finding it harder to raise cash to fund projects.


许多这类采矿企业都利用中国两年前人为制造的稀土供应短缺所引发的恐惧来吸引新的投资者，并借此在一些世界上最大的股市成功上市。它们中的一些企业，如澳大利亚的金伯利稀土公司(Kimberley Rare Earths Ltd.)，对稀土的市场前景是如此充满信心，以至于它们在公司名称里加进了稀土一词。



'All of a sudden we have 400 years of rare earths being drilled out,' said Tim Dobson, managing director of Kimberley Rare Earths. 'Smaller projects just aren't viable anymore.'


然而现在，这些公司已开始丧失对稀土的兴趣，因为市场对稀土行业过量投资以及供应过剩的担忧已经导致一些稀土元素的价格下跌了80%之多。由于采矿业的行业景气状况因对全球经济复苏缓慢的担忧而变差，上述公司中的许多还发现更加难以为开发项目筹集到资金。



Building a rare-earths mine and refinery is very costly, due to complex processing methods and what has traditionally been a long lead time between beginning the development and the startup of production. As the market value of their minerals falls, aspirants require projects with a larger volumes in order to generate enough earnings to recoup startup costs.


金伯利稀土公司的董事总经理多布森(Tim Dobson)说，突然之间有够全世界使用400年的稀土被钻探出来，规模较小的稀土开采项目已不再具有可行性。



Kimberley listed on the Australian Securities Exchange last year with a plan to develop Cummins Range, a rare-earths project in a remote corner of the Australian Outback. Within a month of listing, the company's shares had risen 15% as tighter export controls in China, which accounts for more than 90% of global rare-earths output, pushed prices to a record high.


建设稀土开采和冶炼设施的成本非常高，这既是因为稀土的加工方法复杂，也是因为稀土生产设施从开始兴建到投产启用通常需要很长时间。由于稀土的市场价值下跌，那些有志于投资稀土开发的人要求所投资的项目具有更大的产量规模，以便项目能产生足够的利润以收回启动成本。



At their peak, prices of some rare-earth elements had jumped more than tenfold in little more than a year.


金伯利稀土公司去年在澳大利亚证交所上市，它计划开发位于澳大利亚人烟稀少内陆地区的Cummins Range稀土项目。上市还不足一个月，由于中国收紧稀土控制，该公司股价当时上涨了15%。中国占全球稀土总产量的90%以上，其出口限制措施将稀土价格推升至历史最高水平。



However, Kimberley abandoned plans to develop Cummins Range because of the rapid fall in rare-earths prices, saying it would focus on commodities like copper and gold instead.


稀土价格处于最高峰时，某些稀土元素的价格曾在一年多一点的时间里跃升了1,000%以上。



The Perth-based miner isn't alone in giving up hopes of a rebound in prices. Southern Crown Resources Ltd. of Melbourne, Australia, sold its rare-earths unit in July, while Perth-based Black Fire Minerals Ltd. last month said it is also abandoning rare earths.


但由于稀土价格迅速下跌，金伯利稀土公司最终放弃了开发Cummins Range项目的计划，该公司称它将转而致力于开采铜和黄金等其他大宗商品。



Black Fire Minerals last year secured an option to buy a 70% stake in the Longonjo rare-earths project in Angola from Sable Minerals Pty Ltd. 'However, in light of the significant fall in rare-earth prices, we have decided not to move ahead with it,' said Managing Director Simon Rigby. 'The sector now has significant challenges.'


并非只有这家总部位于珀斯的公司正在放弃对稀土价格出现反弹的希望。总部位于澳大利亚墨尔本的Southern Crown Resources Ltd.今年七月卖掉了其稀土子公司，而总部位于珀斯的Black Fire Minerals Ltd.上个月说，它也将放弃稀土业务。



Clouding the outlook for small companies are several big mines in the process of starting up that analysts think will swamp the market with too much supply, limiting any recovery in prices.


Black Fire Minerals去年获得了从Sable Minerals Pty Ltd.手中购买安哥拉Longonjo稀土项目70%股份的期权。但Black Fire Minerals的董事总经理里格比(Simon Rigby)说：鉴于稀土价格大幅下跌，我们决定放弃行权。他说，这个领域现在面临着严峻挑战。



In the arid mountains of California, Denver-based Molycorp expects to be producing rare earths in large volumes by the end of this year. Australia's Lynas is poised to add to supply after a Malaysian high court last week rejected calls by local activists to suspend its operating license for a new processing plant there..


给小公司前景蒙上阴影的是，多个大型稀土矿正在建设中。分析师认为，这些大矿会造成市场供给过剩，使稀土价格无力反弹。



According to Tony Parry, an analyst at Sydney-based Resource Capital Research, demand for rare earths will more than double to nearly 250,000 tons over the next decade. But he estimates the growth in supply will outstrip demand between 2014 and 2019 as new mines start operations.


总部位于丹佛的Molycorp计划今年年底之前在加州的贫瘠山区大规模出产稀土。预计澳大利亚的Lynas也会带来供应的增加。马来西亚活动人士曾要求吊销该公司当地一座新加工厂的营业执照，但相关要求上个星期被马来西亚一家高等法院驳回。



'Some projects looked viable 18 months ago, and they don't anymore,' said Trent Allen, an analyst at Bell Potter Securities. 'To survive you need to have scale and grade, or at least to be able to produce cheaply. Not every small project will tick those boxes.'


悉尼Resource Capital Research的分析师帕里(Tony Parry)说，10年过后的稀土需求将接近25万吨，超过目前水平的两倍。但他估计，在2014年到2019年间，随着新矿开始运营，供应的增速将会超过需求的增速。



Some rare earths are falling out of favor faster than others. A kilogram of lanthanum oxide -- used in oil refining and hybrid vehicles -- now fetches just US$13 a kilo, compared with an average US$104 a kilo last year.


Bell Potter Securities的分析师艾伦(Trent Allen)说，有些项目在18个月之前似乎是可行的，现在不是了。他说，要生存，就得有规模和稀土等级，或者至少能够以较低成本生产，不是所有的小项目都能符合这些条件。



Lanthanum is a light rare earth that is more widely available than heavier elements such as dysprosium, which is used in control rods at nuclear reactorsand magnets needed in the electronics industry.


有些稀土元素比其他稀土元素更早在市场上失宠。用于炼油和混合动力汽车的氧化镧现在仅卖到每公斤13美元，相比之下，去年的价格是平均每公斤104美元。



Cerium oxide, which is used in catalytic converters and plasma televisions, is now down to US$16 a kilo, from US$102 a kilo last year. The value of neodymium oxide, used in wind turbines and music players, has fallen to US$85 a kilo from US$234 a kilo.


镧是一种轻稀土，比镝之类的重稀土元素更容易找到。镝被用于核反应堆的控制棒和电子工业所需的磁铁。



'In the light rare earths market, supply growth is plentiful and there is an immediate concern about what that supply does to pricing,' said Tim Schroeders, a fund manager at Melbourne-based Pengana Capital.


用于催化转换器和等离子电视的氧化铈，现在已经从去年的每公斤102美元降到每公斤16美元。用于风力涡轮机和音乐播放器的氧化钕，已从每公斤234美元跌到每公斤85美元。



'It's a niche space that is proving difficult and is fraught with a high level of volatility.'Kimberley's Mr. Dobson thinks more companies will follow in turning their back on the industry unless prices rebound.


墨尔本Pengana Capital的基金经理施罗德斯(Tim Schroeders)说，轻稀土市场供应增长充足，目前一个让人担心的问题是，这种供应对定价有何影响。



Many investors have also been spooked by repeated delays to Lynas's flagship plant in Malaysia, where opponents have challenged its operating license in the courts, he said.


金伯利的多布森说，这是一个小众市场，事实证明不太好做，而且充满了波动性。他认为，如果价格不出现反弹，那么还会有更多公司跟着抛弃这一行业。



'Overnight there were 200 companies suddenly marketing rare earths, from just five in 2009,' he said. 'While large projects like Lynas's will still be viable, smaller projects will struggle, and a lot of those 200 companies will go away again.'


他说，Lynas马来西亚旗舰工厂的反复延期还吓走了许多投资者。马来西亚的反对人士曾在法庭上要求吊销该厂的营业执照。



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