否认了一个夏季之后，现实摆在华尔街策略师的面前。
Having spent much of the year making ever-higher predictions for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, and sticking to them through August's turmoil, many strategists are now cutting their forecasts.
今年以来很长一段时间，很多策略师对标准普尔500种股票指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock)的预测一个比一个高，在8月份的动荡期间依然坚持。现在他们都在下调自己的预测。
It is about time, some investors say-and a sign that expectations may now be better calibrated to the realities of a global market crippled by a European debt crisis and sluggish U.S. growth prospects.
一些投资者说，早就该下调预测了。这也说明，现在的预期可能更加符合全球市场饱受欧债危机和美国疲弱增长前景冲击后的现实。
'At the beginning of the year, everyone was tripping over themselves to raise their S&P 500 targets, and now it's the opposite,' said Scott Migliori, U.S. chief investment officer for money manager RCM, a subsidiary of Allianz Global Investors.
德盛安联资产管理公司(Allianz Global Investors)旗下资产管理机构RCM首席投资长米廖里(Scott Migliori)说，年初时大家争先恐后地抬高标普500预测，现在刚好相反。
Goldman Sachs last Wednesday ratcheted down its end-of-year prediction for the S&P 500 to 1250, from its previousforecast of 1400. Last Monday, Wells Fargo dropped its forecast to 1250 from 1390. And on Friday, Citigroup lowered its target to 1325 from 1400.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)上周三将标普500年底点位预测从原先的1400点下调至1250点。上周一，富国银行(Wells Fargo)将其预测从1390点下调至1250点。上周五，花旗集团(Citigroup)从1400点下调至1325点。
The S&P 500 ended last week at 1216.01, which leaves most of the predictions still looking relatively bullish. Strategists on average expect the S&P 500 to end the year at 1309, according to Birinyi Associates-a rise of 7.6% from Friday's close through year end.
标普500上周收于1216.01点，如此来看，多数预测仍旧相对看多。据股市研究公司Birinyi Associates调查，策略师平均预计标普500今年收于1309点。也就是说，从上周五收盘到今年年底，标普500将会上涨7.6%。
At the beginning of 2011, strategists were looking for an 8.5% gain for the entire year, predicting a year-end close of 1365.
2011年伊始，策略师预计年底收于1365点，全年上涨8.5%。
In some ways, predicting the direction of the stock market many months in advance is more art than science, and Wall Street strategists regularlyrevise their estimates to reflect changes in economic conditions and market sentiment. While few investors rely too heavily on these predictions as hard targets, they are closely watched within their firms and followed by advisers and money managers.
从某些方面来讲，提前好几个月预测股市走势与其说是科学，不如说是艺术，而且华尔街策略师也经常修正他们的预测，以反映经济环境和市场情绪的变化。虽然很少有投资者过多地依赖这些预测，把它们当作一定能实现的目标，但这些预测受到策略师所属公司内部的密切关注，同时也受到投资顾问和基金经理的关注。
A number of strategists and money managers remain upbeat on stocks' prospects for the next several months. They argue that stocks have fallen too far, too fast, and remain convinced that the economy will sidestep Europe's debt crisis and fears of a global recession.
多位策略师和基金经理依旧看好股市在未来数月的前景。他们认为股市下跌过多过快，仍然相信经济会避开欧债危机和全球衰退担忧。
'Unless we get some more very bad news, the market is going to have a difficult time going further down,' said Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)首席策略师查达(Binky Chadha)说，只要没有更多非常利空的消息出现，市场就很难进一步下行。
Mr. Chadha has stood at the most bullish end of Wall Street, predicting a finish of 1550 for the S&P 500 this year. Amid an August stock-market rout that he concedes was 'alarming,' Mr. Chadha trimmed that estimate to 1425 -a level that still implies a 17% run-up in the remaining 15 weeks of the year.
查达曾预计标普500在今年收于1550点，在华尔街最为看多。8月份市场瓦解期间，他承认当时的走势让人担忧，把年底点位预测下调至1425点。根据这个预测，标普500仍将在今年剩下的15个月内上涨17%。
'I don't see a recession in the U.S., and I expect Europe to muddle through its problems,' said Mr. Chadha, who hasn't budged on his S&P 500 earningsestimates for the year. 'If we don't get any big news, the market will go higher.'
查达说，我认为美国不会衰退，预计欧洲会克服它的困难；如果没有任何重大消息，市场就会走高。查达并未下调他对今年标普500盈利状况的预期。
The shrinking ranks of market bulls lost another ally in David Bianco, a high-profile strategist who left Bank of America Merrill Lynch last week, just days after reaffirming his year-end target of 1400 for the S&P 500 and raising his 12-month forecast.
市场看多者越来越少，又失去了知名策略师比安可(David Bianco)这个战友。比安可上周离开了美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)，数天之前，他还确认自己对标普500年底点位的预测是1400点，同时上调了对这一指数12个月后点位的预测。
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, Adam Parker, who has been unusually bearish all year with a 1238 target, argues that his colleagues are still far too optimistic.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)美股策略师帕克(Adam Parker)今年以来一直异常看空，预计年底点位为1238点。他认为，同行们仍然是过于乐观了。
'I don't think we've seen the lows of the year by any stretch,' Mr. Parker said. 'Things have to get much worse before they get better.' He is particularly concerned about fiscalpolicy in the U.S. and Europe, and fears a potential growth hiccup in China, a scenario he says few investors have given serious thought to.
帕克说，我认为我们还绝对没有到今年的低点，情况肯定会变得更糟，然后才能好转。他尤其担心美国和欧洲的财政政策，也担心中国的经济增长可能放缓。他说，几乎没有投资者认真考虑过中国经济增长放缓的可能。
Mr. Parker says he has found a more receptive audience for his downbeat views among his clients in recent months. 'My job is to tell them it's going to be cold in winter and that they need to wear a coat,' he said.
帕克说，近几个月他的悲观看法在客户中获得了更多的认同。他说，我的工作就是告诉他们冬天会很冷，他们需要穿件外套。
Gina Martin Adams, equity strategist for Wells Fargo Securities, lowered her targets for earnings and price-to-earnings ratios last week, predicting continued market volatility amid fiscalpolicydebates and an expected downgrade in earningsestimates by analysts.
富国证券(Wells Fargo Securities)股市策略师亚当斯(Gina Martin Adams)上周下调了对收益和市盈率的预期，她预计在围绕财政政策展开论战之际，市场会持续动荡，预计分析师们会下调收益预期。
'The fiscalpolicydebate and how long it stretched out was a wake-up call for me,' Ms. Adams says. 'Earnings estimates are still too high, and investors for the first time in this cycle will have to face negativeearnings revisions momentum, which I expect to cause a little bit of trouble.'
亚当斯说，财政政策论战及其持续的时间对我来说是个警示。收益预期仍然过高，本周期内投资者首次不得不面对收益下调的态势，我预计这会带来点儿麻烦。
Analysts who cover individual companies
文章标签:预测
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