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哪里有经济增长？

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Where's the growth?


哪里有经济增长？



It's certainly not in Europe: revised figures out Tuesday are likely to show the euro-zone economybarely expanded in the second quarter. There isn't much to speak of in the U.S., where growth is struggling to maintain a 2% pace. That leaves emerging markets like China, India and Brazil. Yet now, these economies too are slowing.


当然不是欧洲。周二即将发布的修正后的数据有可能会显示，欧元区二季度经济增长几乎停滞。美国也不值一提，其经济增长艰难地维持着2%的幅度。如此说来，也就剩中国、印度和巴西等新兴市场国家了。但目前来看，这些国家的经济增速也在放缓。



Last week, Credit Suisse downgraded its estimate of Chinese growth to 8.2% from 8.5% for 2012. That is a significant slowing from the near-11% growth rate the nation averaged from 2003 through 2010. It is even well below the 9.2% rate it experienced during the depths of the global recession in 2009, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.


上周，瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)下调中国2012年经济增长预期，从8.5%下调至8.2%。相比2003年至2010年中国平均每年近11%的增长速度，这可谓是大幅放缓。经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)表示，这甚至大大低于2009年全球衰退最严重时中国9.2%的增速。



Brazil's central bank, meanwhile, unexpectedly cut interest rates, citing a 'retreat of projections' for economic growth and a 'disinflationary bias' likely in the months ahead.


此外，巴西央行意外降息，其理由是经济增长预期回落以及未来数月可能出现通货紧缩倾向。



A slowdown in emerging markets will make it increasingly difficult for heavily indebted countries like the U.S. to export their way to growth, as figures this week are likely to show. First up on Tuesday is the Institute for Supply Management's index of nonmanufacturing, or service-sector, activity, which is expected to fall to 51 in August from 52.7 in July. The subindex of new export orders fired a warning shot in July when it dropped eight points to 49, below the 50 level that indicates expansion.


新兴市场国家的增速放缓会让美国等高负债国家越来越难以通过出口促进本国经济增长，这一点或许可从本周即将发布的经济数据中看到。最先出炉的将是美国供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management)于周二发布的非制造业活动指数(或称服务业活动指数)，预计该指数将从7月份的52.7回落至8月的51。新增出口订单分项指数7月已发出警告，当时它下跌了8点，至49，低于表明非制造业活动处于扩张的50。



It would take a substantial rebound in August to prove that decline wasn't just a one-month blip. And that seems unlikely, given that the ISM survey of manufacturing activity, released last Thursday, showed a similar drop in export orders. This subindex fell to 50.5 in August from 54 in July, the lowest level since July 2009, and just barely still in expansionary mode. Separately, the Commerce Department is out with July trade figures on Thursday that, barring a sharp rebound, are likely to show U.S. exports remain below their recent April peak.


要想证明7月新增出口订单的下滑只是某一月的问题，那么8月该分项指数就需大幅回升。但鉴于上周四美国供应管理学会发布的制造业活动调查结果，这似乎是不太可能的，因为调查显示，出口订单这一分项指数也出现了类似下滑，从7月的54降至8月的50.5，创2009年7月以来的最低水平，这表明制造业活动仅仅勉强处在扩张的状态。另外，美国商务部将于本周四发布的7月份贸易数据可能会显示，美国出口额仍低于今年4月的峰值，除非出现大幅反弹。



This is troubling since exports, which account for just 14% of the U.S. economy, have punched above their weight throughout this recovery. Without them, the U.S. economy's average 2.4% growth rate since mid-2009 would have been sliced in half. Investors are right to be on edge.


这种局面让人不安，因为虽然出口在美国经济总量中只占14%，但它在美国复苏阶段表现异常出色。若没有出口，美国经济自2009年中期以来平均2.4%的增速会下降一半。投资者现在坐立不安是有一定道理的。



Kelly Evans


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