The seeds of a sustained increase in food prices are about to be sown in Mississippi, Nebraska and other farm-belt states across the U.S.
美
As American farmers prepare to plant their next crops, they must decide how much, and what, to plant.
国密西西比州和内布拉斯加州等农业区发生的事情可能将推动食品价格持续上涨。
With prices for everything from corn to cotton and soybeans soaring, the overall mix of production is likely to be similar to last year, instead of a major turn toward one hot crop, a move that would likely drive down the price of that crop.
美国农民在准备种植下一季庄稼时，他们必须决定种些什么，种多少。
In past years there have been some big acreage swings, but analysts expect mostly minor changes when the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases a closely watched survey of farmers' intentions next month. Only a limitedamount of idle land can be brought into production, further capping supply.
从玉米到棉花再到大豆，各类农作物的价格都在大幅上涨，在这种情况下，今年的农作物种植结构可能会与去年类似，农民们不会一窝蜂地去种某一种热门农作物，如果是那样，这种农作物的价格可能会被压低。
That could help extend the commodities rally, which has already seen corn futures jump 92% over the past year, soybeans rise 44%, wheat gain 69% and cotton soar 162%.
下个月美国农业部将公布备受关注的农民意向调查。过去几年中，农作物种植面积曾发生过巨大波动，但分析师预计，新公布的调查结果将显示，农作物种植面积今年不会有太大变化。只有数量有限的闲置土地可用于耕种，这将会进一步遏制农作物供应。
With worries rising about the world's food supply, planting decisions are critical. The U.S. provides more than half of global corn exports and over 40% of soybean exports.
此种局面将会助推大宗商品继续涨价，过去一年玉米期货价格已经大涨92%，大豆、小麦和棉花价格分别攀升了44%、69%和162%。
As the broad agricultural rally gained steam in recent months, there were hopes for bountiful harvests in other major growing regions, such as South America or Australia, that might alleviate tight supplies of specific crops, driving U.S. farmers to increase production of others.
在世界粮食供应日益引人担忧的情况下，农作物的种植决策尤为重要。美国供应着全球超过一半的玉米出口和超过40%的大豆出口。
But crops in many countries have been hurt by bad weather, keeping prices high across the board.
随着农作物普遍涨价的势头在近几个月变得更加强劲，人们希望南美和澳大利亚等其他主要农作物种植区也能获得大丰收，从而减缓部分农作物的供应紧张状况，推动美国农民增加其他农作物的种植量。
Persistent demand also has helped erode global stockpiles, which are used to ensure a steady flow of food and protect against shocks.
但许多国家的农作物都遭到恶劣天气的破坏，这导致农作物价格普遍居高不下。
Current corn stocks amount to about 5% of annual use, far below the average of 13.6% over the past 15 years, according to U.S. data.
持续性需求也加快了全球粮食库存的消耗，这些库存被用来确保食品的稳定供应、防止突发性粮食供应短缺出现。
In order to get back to average stockpiles, U.S. farmers would have to plant eight million to 10 million more acres of corn, estimates Joseph Glauber, the USDA's chief economist. Restoring soybean stocks would require another three million to four million acres.
据美国的数据显示，目前的玉米库存相当于年消耗量的5%左右，远远低于过去15年13.6%的平均水平。
'Obviously, this is more acreage than is likely to be planted to corn and soybeans this year,' Mr. Glauber said in an email message.
美国农业部首席经济学家克劳伯（Joseph Glauber）预计，为使库存恢复到平均水平，美国农民将需要再种植800万到1,000万英亩的玉米。恢复大豆库存将需要再种植300万到400万英亩大豆。
In past years, U.S. farmers have shifted millions of acres from one crop to another. In 2007, they planted 15.2 million more acres with corn than in 2006, a 19% jump -- at the expense of soybeans and cotton -- amid strong demand for corn to make ethanol.
克劳伯在一份电子邮件中说，这明显高于今年预计的玉米和大豆种植面积。
This year, expectations are more modest. Macquarie forecasts that U.S. farmers will plant 90.5 million acres of corn, up from 88.2 million last year.
过去几年，美国农民已经将数百万英亩的土地进行了作物改种。2007年，由于市场对可用来制作乙醇的玉米有强劲需求，美国农民将种植大豆和棉花的土地改种玉米，当年的玉米种植面积比2006年多出1,520万英亩，增幅为19%。
The USDA, meanwhile, estimates U.S. farmers will plant 92 million acres of corn. The USDA forecasts 78 million acres of soybeans, virtuallyunchanged from last year's 77.7 million.
今年的农作物改种现象预计太严重。麦格理（Macquarie）预测，美国农民种植玉米的面积将会从去年的8,820万英亩增加到9,050万英亩。
Another obstacle to expanding supplies is the difficulty of putting new farmland into production. It takes years to clear and prepare large tracts outside the U.S., such as in the former Soviet Union and South America, said Mr. Bos of Macquarie.
而美国农业部则预计，美国的玉米种植面积将达到9,200万英亩，大豆种植面积将为7,800万英亩，几乎与去年的7,770万英亩持平。
In the U.S., there is some land available. Gerald Bange, who chairs the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board, noted recently that there were 10.7 million fewer acres in play for major crops last year than in 2008, including land idled under a federalconservation program.
另一个扩大农产品供应的障碍是，将新的耕地投入生产面临困难。麦格理分析师波斯（Alex Bos）说，在前苏联和南美等美国以外的地区，大片土地的清理和准备工作要花好几年时间。
But some doubt that many acres will be pressed into service.
美国有一些土地可用于生产。美国农业部世界农业展望委员会（World Agricultural Outlook Board）主席邦格（Gerald Bange）最近指出，去年可用于主要农作物种植的耕地面积比2008年减少1,070万英亩，其中包括根据一项联邦资源保护计划被闲置的土地。
A particularly abundant crop in the U.S. could alleviate some of the supply pressures, sending commodity prices lower. Strong harvests in Russia, China, and elsewhere could also ease concerns.
但有人觉得可能不会有很多闲置土地被用于耕种。
Liam Pleven
- mississippi [,misi´sipi]
n.密西西比(河) (初中英语单词) - mostly [´məustli] ad.主要地；多半；通常 (初中英语单词)
- agriculture [´ægrikʌltʃə] n.农业；农事 (初中英语单词)
- survey [´sə:vei] vt.&n.俯瞰；审视；测量 (初中英语单词)
- amount [ə´maunt] n.总数；数量 v.合计 (初中英语单词)
- agricultural [ægri´kʌltʃər(ə)l] a.农业的 (初中英语单词)
- annual [´ænjuəl] a.每年的 n.年刊 (初中英语单词)
- modest [´mɔdist] a.谦虚的；朴素的 (初中英语单词)
- meanwhile [´mi:n´wail] n.&ad.其间；同时 (初中英语单词)
- soviet [´səuviit] a.苏联的 n.苏维埃 (初中英语单词)
- available [ə´veiləbəl] a.可用的；有效的 (初中英语单词)
- federal [´fedərəl] a.联邦的，联邦制的 (初中英语单词)
- abundant [ə´bʌndənt] a.丰富的；充分的 (初中英语单词)
- elsewhere [,elsweə] ad.在别处；向别处 (初中英语单词)
- limited [´limitid] a.有限(制)的 (高中英语单词)
- critical [´kritikəl] a.批评的；关键性的 (高中英语单词)
- specific [spi´sifik] a.具体的；特有的 (高中英语单词)
- obstacle [´ɔbstəkl] n.障碍(物)；妨碍 (高中英语单词)
- conservation [,kɔnsə´veiʃən] n.保存；节约；守恒 (高中英语单词)
- commodity [kə´mɔditi] n.日用品；商品 (高中英语单词)
- economist [i´kɔnəmist] n.经济学家；节俭的人 (英语四级单词)
- virtually [´və:tʃuəli] ad.实际上，实质上 (英语四级单词)
- outlook [´autluk] n.眺望；景色；展望 (英语四级单词)
- acreage [´eikəridʒ] n.英亩数；土地的面积 (英语六级单词)
- unchanged [ʌn´tʃeindʒd] a.不变的；依然如故的 (英语六级单词)
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