A recent flurry of merger activity captured investors'
imagination last week and returned their focus to the wads of cash lying around on corporate balance sheets.
近期一系列企业并购活动上周激发了投资者的想像力,令他们重新关注企业资产负债表上的大量现金。
Nonfinancial companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are sitting on a record $2 trillion, according to FactSet. While no one is
calling for a new merger boom, many are looking for companies to spread some of that money in other ways --
namely through
dividends and buybacks.
根据研究公司FactSet数据,标准普尔500指数成分股中的非金融企业资产负债表上共有2万亿美元现金,创下纪录高位。尽管没人预计将出现新的并购热潮,但许多人希望企业把一些钱用到其他地方:比如派发股息和回购股票。
The
prospect of companies
parting with some of that cash is tantalizing for stock investors. They have watched
helplessly this year as stocks tread water
despiteimpressiveearnings and upbeat forecasts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down nearly 2% this year. Even a modicum of spending on mergers, buybacks or
dividends could help put a floor under the market, if not do more, they reason.
企业可能拿出一部分现金,这个前景令股市投资者心神向往。今年以来投资者都在无助地观望,因为尽管企业获利丰厚,屡屡高于预估,但股价一直举步维艰。今年迄今道琼工业指数累计跌近2%。投资者推断,即使企业拿出少量资金用于并购、股票回购或派发股息,就算不能产生更大的效应,至少也会对股市提供支撑。
J.P. Morgan Chase estimates that if cash balances among S&P 500 companies were to return to
normal levels -- about 7% of assets from the current 11% -- it would result in spending of $428
billion. That almost is as much money as companies poured into share repurchases for 2008 and 2009 combined.
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)估计,标准普尔500指数成分股的现金余额在资产中所占比例,假如从目前的11%降至约7%的正常水平,将使企业支出4,280亿美元,这几乎是2008和2009年企业进行股票回购资金数量的总和。
Buybacks are growing in
popularity: the value of share repurchase programs more than tripled off last year's lows to $142.7
billion for the year so far, Thomson Reuters says, though the total hasn't yet returned to precrisis highs.
股票回购越来越流行,汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)公布,今年迄今股票回购规模是去年低点的三倍多,已升至1,427亿美元,不过总量尚未回升到金融危机前的高位。
And one-third of S&P 500 companies increased their
dividends this year, handing out an extra $12.7
billion after cutting them by $41
billion in the same period last year, according to S&P.
根据标准普尔数据,标准普尔500指数成分股中三分之一的企业今年增派了股息,额外增加127亿美元股息,而去年同期为减少410亿美元股息。
Another use of cash, of course, is to buy other companies. BHP Billiton's
hostile $39
billion bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan and Intel's
agreement to buy McAfee are signs of growing confidence among corporate executives. But still, some investors note, the deals seen so far probably aren't heralding a new merger wave. And many executives are skewing toward
conservative 'low-hanging fruit,' seeking to
strengthen themselves through consolidation.
当然现金的另一用途是购买其他企业。必和必拓(BHP Billiton)对Saskatchewan旗下化肥公司Potash Corp.价值390亿美元的敌意收购要约,以及英特尔(Intel)决定购买软件生产企业McAfee,都是企业高管信心增加的信号。但一些投资者仍注意到,迄今看到的并购交易还没有预示着一场新的并购热潮即将来临。许多企业高管采取保守策略,定下容易实现的目标,通过并购来增强自身企业。
Douglas Cliggott, U.S.
equity strategist with Credit Suisse, says that with all this cash on corporate balance sheets, he is expecting more buybacks and
dividend increases.
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)美国股票策略师克里葛(Douglas Cliggott)说,由于企业资产负债表上有这么多现金,他预计将出现更多股票回购和增派股息。
'I think there is a logic both for share buybacks, and an
attraction to being very
competitive with fixed-income instruments here if we increase our yield,' he says.
他说,我认为股票回购和提高派息都是有道理的,如果提高股息,股票就能与固定收益工具媲美,这也颇具吸引力。
Launching buybacks allow companies to shore up their share prices, giving a boost to per-share
earnings without companies
actually increasing
earnings. Advocates say this could be a key to driving many stocks higher even if the
economy fails to pick up steam.
股票回购将使公司推高他们的股价,在公司实际上没有增加获利的情况下提升每股收益。支持者说,如果经济不能增加动力,这一方法是带动许多股票上涨的重要方式。
And with bond yields now at
historic lows,
dividend-paying companies are starting to look like
reasonable alternatives, some analysts say.
一些分析师说,由于债券收益率目前处于纪录低位,派息公司开始看起来像是合理的另类投资。
Credit Suisse, in a recent report to clients, listed 24 stocks that it argued were 'better than bonds' based on
dividend yields that were higher than those of 10-year Treasurys. Those stocks sport an average
dividend yield of 4.2%, compared with the 10-year yield of a little over 2.5%.
瑞士信贷在最近给客户的报告中,基于高于美国10年期国债收益率的股息率,列出了24只它认为"优于债券"的股票。这些股票的平均股息率为4.2%,而美国10年期国债收益率仅略高于2.5%。
'Dividends make sense to people,' says Jerry Harris, president of asset
management at Sterne Agee, who adds
historical stock-market returns have been
driven by
dividends.
Sterne Agee负责资产管理的总裁哈里斯(Jerry Harris)说,股息对人们来说有意义。他补充说,处于纪录高位的股市回报率一直是由股息推动的。
But there is a
negative signal being sent here, too, some investors say: Companies'
reluctance to
channel that
surplus money toward growth and
expansion -- whether it be making strategic acquisitions or hiring more employees -- suggests
caution still prevails.
但这也发出了一个负面信号,一些投资者说,企业不愿将剩余资金用于公司增长和扩张,无论是进行战略收购还是雇佣更多雇员,暗示谨慎气氛仍是主流。
It also reflects the
amount of existing underused
capacity companies have at their
disposal, thanks to technological improvements and squeezing more out of employees.
这还反应为,拜技术改进和提高雇员效率所赐,企业现有大量未充分利用的产能可供支配。
Jonathan Cheng