While many
investors are shunning risks of any kind, a small but growing number are wading into the most volatile-and riskiest-corners of the world.
就在许多投资者对任何类型的风险都予以避让时,一小部分人正涉足世界上最具变数、风险也最高的角落,而且这一群体的人数呈上升之势。
Interest
lately has revived in
so-calledfrontier markets, as
pension funds and other
investors look to diversify their
holdings and
capture higher returns. They are putting money into countries at the
farthest reaches of the
investing world, beyond even
so-called emerging markets-countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Ivory Coast.
随着养老金基金和其他投资者着眼于将其投资组合多元化,并追求更高的回报率,所谓的前沿市场近来重新受到关注。他们将钱投到那些位于投资世界中最遥远角落的国家,甚至远离了所谓的新兴市场,例如斯里兰卡、孟加拉和象牙海岸。
So far this year, returns in
frontier nations, whose markets tend to be dominated by
financial, telecom,
energy and
industrial companies, are edging out those of more-developed markets. The MSCI Frontier Markets Index was up 2.4% through July, compared with losses of 6.7% for the MSCI EAFE, which represents foreign developed markets. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index were basically flat, down 1.2% and up 0.2%,
respectively, over the same period.
前沿市场今年迄今的回报率要比那些发展程度更高的市场稍胜一筹。前沿市场大多为金融、电信、能源和工业企业所主导。摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)前沿市场指数7月份上涨了2.4%,相比之下,追踪外国发达市场的MSCI EAFE指数却下跌了6.7%。同期标普500股指和MSCI新兴市场指数则大体持平,分别为下跌1.2%和上涨0.2%。
Investors seeking higher returns, low correlation with other markets and alternatives to
conventional stock markets have sunk a record $1.1
billion into
so-calledfrontier funds so far this year-more than in any
previous year, according to EPFR Global, a Boston firm that tracks fund flows. The
previous record: $442.7 million of inflows in 2007.
根据追踪基金流动的波士顿公司EPFR Global,投资者为追求更高回报率、寻求与其他市场的低关联性以及找寻传统股市的替代品,今年为止已经向前沿基金投入了创纪录的11亿美元,这一水平超过了以往任何年份。此前的纪录是2007年创下的4.427亿美元。
Most
frontier-market countries have stronger balance sheets than heavily
indebted developed markets, says Nathan Rowader,
director of
investments at Forward Management. Based on their long-term fundamentals, many
frontier markets-such as those in Eastern Europe, like Lithuania and Ukraine-are
relatively cheap, he says.
Forward Management的投资主管鲁瓦达(Nathan Rowader)说,多数前沿市场国家的资产负债情况都要好于负债累累的发达市场。他说,鉴于它们长期的基本面状况,许多前沿市场,比如像立陶宛和乌克兰这样的东欧市场,其股价都相对便宜。
Yet the risks are
considerable. For one,
frontier markets are small and illiquid, so
investors may find it difficult to get out of a bad-performing stock. Many countries also are
fraught with political and
currency risks, as well as a lack of regulatory and legal oversight. Returns for the indexes that track these markets are also
limited. MSCI has returns for
frontier markets that go back to May 2002, while Standard & Poor's Frontier Index (which excludes the Gulf countries) extends back to 1996.
然而也不能忽视风险。其中之一便是前沿市场较小且流动性弱,因此投资者或许难以从一只表现差的股票中抽身。还有许多国家不仅充满政治和货币风险,也缺乏行业和法律上的监管。追踪这些市场的指数所体现的回报率也存在局限性。MSCI对前沿市场的追踪历史追溯至2002年5月,标普前沿市场指数(不含海湾国家)也仅追溯至1996年。
Frontier markets can be notoriously volatile, too. Although the MSCI Frontier Markets Index gained 38% in 2007, it dropped 55% in 2008. What's more, there isn't much of a track record for the funds, many of which have less than three years of returns.
前沿市场的波动性也为人所熟知。虽然MSCI前沿市场指数2007年上涨了38%,但它在2008年却下跌了55%。除此之外,这些基金过去也没有什么记录可供参考,其中许多带来回报的时间还不足三年。
Some analysts
caution against
investing in
frontier markets
altogether. 'While there is the
possibility that you will get higher returns at lower valuations in some of these markets because they are overlooked, there is no guarantee,' says Gregg Wolper,
senior fund analyst at Morningstar Inc. Many
frontier funds also tend to be expensive-with some sporting
annual expenses of 2% or more, compared with average expenses of 1.4% for funds in Morningstar's foreign large-blend category.
有些分析师完全对投资前沿市场提出了警告。晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)资深基金分析师沃尔珀(Gregg Wolper)说,尽管在其中这些市场你会因为它们被低估而可能以更低的估值获得更高的回报,但这得不到保证。许多前沿基金还会不便宜──有些要收取2%甚至更高的年费,与之相比,晨星公司大盘混合型基金的平均年费为1.4%。
Investors who still want to
explore the
frontier have a broader menu of options to choose from. In the last two or three years, Guggenheim Partners LLC's Claymore Advisors, Invesco Ltd.'s PowerShares and Van Eck Global have all launched
frontier-centric exchange-traded funds, while firms such as T. Rowe Price Group Inc., Harding Loevner LP and Franklin Templeton Investments have launched
mutual funds.
仍想开发前沿市场的投资者有着比以往更多的选择。过去两三年间,Guggenheim Partners的Claymore Advisors、Invesco Ltd.的PowerShares和Van Eck Global都推出了以前沿市场为中心的交易所交易基金,而T. Rowe Price Group Inc.、Harding Loevner LP和Franklin Templeton Investments则推出了共同基金。
Some funds-such as the Forward Frontier Markets Fund and BlackRock Inc.'s Frontier Markets Fund-aim to hew more closely to indexes because of the risks and difficulties of
investing in
frontier markets. But because the indexes often list the most-liquid stocks in what are
thinly traded markets to begin with,
investors may end up
holding concentrated positions in sectors or countries.
有些基金,比如Forward前沿市场基金和贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)前沿市场基金考虑到投资前沿市场的风险和困难而希望更多的投资于指数。但由于这些指数一开始往往包含了交投清淡的市场上那些流动性最大的股票,因此投资者也许最后手头会握有某些特定板块或是国家的过量头寸。
For example, about 30% of the MSCI Frontier Market Index-which tracks 175 companies in 26 countries-is in one country, Kuwait, and has a sector weighting of 53% in
financials. A market dominated by
financials is
typical in
frontier countries, says Frank Nielsen, head of index and
appliedresearch at MSCI Barra. As countries
mature, other industries develop.
比如,追踪26个国家175个公司的MSCI前沿市场指数有大约30%是在一个国家:科威特,其中又有53%的比例是在一个板块:金融股。MSCI Barra指数及应用研究负责人尼尔森(Frank Nielsen)说,市场由金融板块主导的现象在前沿国家很典型。随着国家日益成熟,其他行业也会发展。
Some of the best values are in countries that may not be tracked by indexes. 'By being able to
invest in places where others haven't
gotten to yet, you're able to buy earlier and cheaper,' Nick Padgett, managing
director of
frontier-
investment firm Frontaura Capital LLC, who has been
investing
lately in Ivory Coast, Tanzania and other sub-Saharan African countries.
一些最有价值的投资在那些或许未被指数追踪到的国家。前沿市场投资公司Frontaura Capital LLC的董事总经理佩吉特(Nick Padgett)说,投资那些其他人还未投资的地方,你能更早出手,而且价钱也更便宜。这家公司最近一直在投资象牙海岸、坦桑尼亚和撒哈拉以南的其他非洲国家。
Given the volatility,
investors should be prepared to hang on for the long haul. 'It's really for people who want to
invest for a while and are betting that these markets will
evolve and develop more toward an emerging-markets standard,' says MSCI's Mr. Nielsen.
考虑到前沿市场的波动性,投资者应该做好打持久战的准备。MSCI的尼尔森说,它实在是适合于长线投资者,他们相信这些市场将会更多地朝着新兴市场的标准发展。
Another way to get
access to
frontier markets is to find foreign companies that do business in those markets and whose shares trade on American or London exchanges, says David Riedel, president of Riedel Research Group Inc., a
research firm focused on emerging markets. Some U.S.-listed stocks-such as Millicom International Cellular SA and Central European Distribution Corp.-offer an
additional layer of
protection since the companies also have to meet U.S. standards of corporate governance, disclosure and oversight, Mr. Riedel says.
Riedel Research Group Inc.的总裁雷德尔(David Riedel)说,接触前沿市场的另一个方法是找到一家在那里开展业务、而自身股票在美国或伦敦交易所交易的外国公司。Riedel Research是一家重点关注新兴市场的研究公司。雷德尔说,一些在美国上市的公司,如Millicom International Cellular SA和Central European Distribution Corp.提供了又一层保护,因为这些公司还必须满足美国的公司治理、消息披露和监管标准。
Conrad Saldanha, portfolio
manager of Neuberger Berman Emerging Markets Equity Fund, owns Tullow Oil PLC, a London-listed oil company that has most of its assets based in Ghana and Uganda, and Guaranty Trust Bank, a global depositary
receipt that Mr. Saldanha describes as 'one of the strongest
banking franchises in Nigeria.'
Neuberger Berman新兴市场股票基金的投资组合经理萨丹哈(Conrad Saldanha)持有Tullow Oil PLC和Guaranty Trust Bank,前者是一家多数资产在加纳和乌干达的伦敦上市石油企业,后者发行的全球存托凭证被萨丹哈称为是"尼日利亚最大的银行特许权之一"。
'For individual
investors,
investing in
frontier markets is like vermouth in a martini,' says Christopher Bliss, portfolio
manager of the BlackRock Frontier Markets Fund, which is aimed at institutional
investors. 'Just a
splash is enough.'
服务于机构投资者的贝莱德前沿市场基金的投资经理布里斯(Christopher Bliss)说,对个人投资者来说,投资前沿市场就像是马提尼里的苦艾酒,掺一点就够了。