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In the days leading up to the May 6 'flash crash,' some stock-market veterans were picking up disturbing rumblings.


在5月6日的"闪电崩盘"之前,一些经验丰富的股市老手已经听到令人担忧的风言风语了。



Philip Vasan, who heads the Credit Suisse prime-brokerage unit catering to hedge funds, began hearing from fund managers who were ratcheting back on trading because, they told him, stocks were behaving strangely. The funds were acting like 'a dog that growls before an earthquake,' Mr. Vasan told several clients.


瑞信(Credit Suisse)面向对冲基金的机构经纪业务负责人瓦桑(Philip Vasan)开始从一些基金经理那里听到消息,他们告诉他,由于股市表现异常,他们正在减少交易。瓦桑对数位客户说,各基金的表现就像是"地震前一只狂吠的狗一样"。



When the quake hit on the afternoon of May 6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its biggest, fastest decline ever, and hundreds of stocks momentarily lost nearly all their value. So many things went wrong, so quickly, that regulators haven't yet pieced together precisely what happened.


5月6日下午股市"地震"发生时,道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数遭遇了有史以来最大幅、最急速的下挫,数百只股票顷刻之间价值蒸发殆尽。太短的时间内出了太多的问题,以致于监管机构至今都没有弄清到底发生了什么事。



A close examination of the market's rapid-fire unraveling reveals some new details about what unfolded: Stock-price data from the New York Stock Exchange's electronic-trading arm, Arca, were so slow that at least three other exchanges simply cut it off from trading. Pricing information became so erratic that at one point shares of Apple Inc. traded at nearly $100,000 apiece. And computer-driven trading models used by many big investors, apparently responding to the same market signals, rushed for the exits at the same time.


对"闪电崩盘"的仔细考察揭露了一些未披露的新细节:纽约证交所电子交易部门Arca的股价数据太慢,至少有另外三家交易所干脆不再用它的数据。定价信息变得非常离谱,以致于苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的股价一度飙升至每股近10万美元的水平。很多大投资者使用的电脑驱动的交易模式表面上对同样的市场信号做出反应,纷纷同时退出。



Three months later, many market veterans have arrived at a disquieting conclusion: A flash crash could happen again because today's computer-driven stock market is much more fragile than many believed. Many investors, still gun-shy, have been pulling money out of stocks.


三个月后,很多市场老手得到了一个令人不安的结论:由于今天的电脑驱动的股市比很多人认为的要更加脆弱,"闪电崩盘"可能会再次发生。很多仍心有余悸的投资者一直在从股市撤资。



'The whole system failed,' says John Bogle, founder of fund company Vanguard Group. 'In an era of intense technology, bad things can happen so rapidly. Technology can accelerate things to the point that we lose control.'


基金公司Vanguard Group创始人博格尔(John Bogle)说,整个系统失灵了,在一个技术密集的时代,不幸的事瞬间就可能发生。技术可以令事情加速到我们难以控制的地步。



9:30 a.m., Dow opens at 10862.22


上午9:30,道琼斯指数开盘10862.22点



Early trading was relatively smooth. Todd Sandoz, co-head of equities in the Americas at Credit Suisse in New York, kept track as clients reduced risk in their portfolios. One way they did it was through trades that would profit if the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell: They sold short, or bet against, futures contracts linked to that index. They did the same with exchange-traded funds, which track baskets of stocks.


早盘相对平顺。瑞信驻纽约美洲股市负责人之一桑多斯(Todd Sandoz)密切关注着客户减少其投资组合中的风险。他们减少风险的方法之一是通过在标准普尔500指数下跌时能够获益的交易:他们做空与标准普尔500指数相关的期货合约。对跟踪一篮子股票的交易所买卖基金也如法炮制。



Those kinds of trades can send waves through the market. Brokers on the other side of the trades often hedge their own positions by selling the stocks contained in the index. That morning, Mr. Sandoz heard from his traders that there were relatively few buyers and sellers for some individual stocks -- a sign that the market might not be able to smoothly handle big index trades.


这类交易可能给市场带来剧烈波动。对手经纪商往往会卖出该指数的成份股,进而对其持有的头寸进行套期保值。当日早间,桑多斯从他的交易员那里听说有些个股的买家和卖家相对非常少,这意味着股市可能无法顺利地应对大的指数交易。



The market was especially vulnerable because of the trading pullback identified by his colleague Mr. Vasan. The hedge funds that had been pulling back for several days -- specialists in a strategy called statistical arbitrage -- normally" target="_blank" title="ad.正常情况下;通常">normally trade so much stock that they are a key source of market liquidity.


由于他的同事瓦桑识别出的交易回撤,股市尤其容易受到影响而波动。对冲基金通常交易的股票数量庞大,是市场流动性的一个重要来源,不过数天来它们一直在撤资。对冲基金精通所谓的"统计套利"(statistical arbitrage)的战略。



At about 2 p.m., as protests in Athens over the Greek debt crisis turned violent, the euro fell sharply, especially against the yen. The euro-yen exchange rate is watched widely by traders, with the yen seen as a safe-haven currency, the euro a proxy for riskier investments.


下午两点前后,随着在雅典举行的抗议希腊债务危机的活动变得暴烈起来,欧元大幅下挫,特别是兑日圆。欧元兑日圆汇率是交易员普遍关注的数据,因为日圆被视为一个安全的外汇避风港,而欧元则是高风险投资的代表。



The euro's fall triggered concerns that a rush out of stocks was in the works. At Chicago hedge fund Sharmac Capital Management LLC, trader Jason Roney noticed the drop. 'Something is wrong, look out!' he recalls shouting to his trading desk. He started shorting S&P 500 futures.


欧元的下挫引发了担忧,人们担心从股市大批撤出的行动正在酝酿之中。在芝加哥对冲基金Sharmac Capital Management LLC,交易员罗尼(Jason Roney)注意到了欧元的走低。他记得自己朝着交易部门大喊,出问题了,当心!他开始做空标准普尔500指数期货。



Traders across Wall Street were making similar moves, many driven by computer models that have become standard tools at banks, hedge funds and mutual funds.


华尔街的交易员们都在采取类似的做法,很多人是在已经成为银行、对冲基金和共同基金标准工具的电脑模式的驱策下这样做的。



Fund managers at Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. in Overland Park, Kan., moved to hedge their U.S. stock holdings, which total more than $7 billion, by betting that the S&P 500 would fall. Waddell decided on a large short sale of futures contracts known as E-minis, which mimic movement of the S&P 500. As Waddell's computers began parceling out the trade, other investors also were trying to hedge their portfolios, so trading volume in E-minis shot up to six times the usual volume.


堪萨斯州资产管理公司Waddell & Reed Financial Inc.的基金经理们纷纷行动起来,通过押注标准普尔500指数将下挫,对总计70多亿美元的美国持股进行了套期保值。该公司决定大笔做空模拟标准普尔500指数走势的、所谓的"E-minis"期货合约。在Waddell的电脑开始撤出交易之际,其他投资者也在试图对投资组合进行套期保值,结果是E-minis的成交量比通常成交量激增了五倍。



But liquidity, the ability to buy or sell easily, was drying up. Between about 2:35 and 2:45, the six 'market-making' firms that were most active that afternoon in E-mini trading -- they step in as buyers or sellers on many trades -- cut back their trading. Some pulled out altogether.


但流动性(顺利买卖证券的能力)正在枯竭。从2点35分左右到2点45分,当天下午在"E-mini"交易中最活跃的六家做市商(它们在很多交易中扮演买方或卖方)减少了交易,有的做市商是全部撤出。



As a result, traders say, the big Waddell trade accelerated the sell-off. Waddell says it did not intend to 'disrupt' the market.


交易员说,由此导致的结果是,Waddell公司那笔大额交易加剧了下跌。Waddell公司说,它当时无意"扰乱"市场。



Computers started to groan under the weight of the orders and slow by fractions of a second. It became difficult for exchanges and investors to keep track of prices.


计算机开始不堪订单的负荷,出现细微的时滞,各交易所和投资者难以实时看到价格。



In recent years, due in part to rules instituted by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2007, the stock market has been opened to numerous trading venues and has evolved into a high-speed network. The rules stipulate that when an investor trades a stock, the order is routed to the venue with the best price.


近些年,一定程度上由于美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission,简称SEC)在2007年颁布的规定,股市已对很多交易所开放,发展成一个高速网络。根据SEC的规定,当投资者买卖一只股票时,订单会被发往价格最优的交易所。



On the afternoon of May 6, it was difficult for traders to trust the information they were getting, and for buyers and sellers to find each other. Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. operations personnel noticed problems with orders it had routed to Arca, the electronic trading platform of the NYSE, which handles about 12% of U.S. stock-trading volume. It was taking Arca longer to acknowledge receiving some orders. Orders for Nasdaq-listed stocks such as Apple and Amazon.com Inc. were hitting lags of two seconds or more on Arca -- an eternity in today's markets.


5月6日下午,交易员们很难对他们获得的信息产生信任,买卖双方都很难找到交易对手。纳斯达克交易所运营商Nasdaq OMX Group Inc.的运营人员发出通知,说它发往纽约证交所电子交易平台Arca(该平台处理着美国大约12%的股票交易量)的订单存在问题,部分订单等待Arca承认收到的时间比以往更长了。苹果和亚马逊(Amazon.com Inc.)等纳斯达克上市股票在Arca平台遇到了两秒钟的延迟──这在今天的市场里,简直是一个无穷大的时滞。



Trading in Apple became especially volatile. At 2:40, its stock began falling swiftly, losing 16% in six minutes. Because Apple is a component of several indexes, weakness in the stock helped drag down the broader market.


苹果股价的波动尤为剧烈。2点40分,这只股票开始迅速下跌,六分种下跌了16%。由于苹果是多个股指的成份股,它的下跌拖累了整个市场。



Concerned about the impact of the delay on orders routed to Arca, Nasdaq officials used a tool called 'self help,' designed to prevent problems at one exchange from spreading to others. At 2:36:59, Nasdaq stopped routing orders to Arca. Other exchanges, including Chicago Board Options Exchange and BATS Global Markets, an electronic-exchange near Kansas City, Mo., did the same.


担忧于向Arca发送订单出现时滞所造成的影响,纳斯达克高管使用了一种名为"自救"(self help)的工具。使用这种工具的目的,是为了防止一家交易所的问题蔓延到其他交易所。2点36分59秒,纳斯达克停止向Arca输入订单。芝加哥期权交易所(Chicago Board Options Exchange)和BATS Global Markets(密苏里州堪萨斯城附近一家电子交易所)等交易所都做了同样的事情。



The NYSE says Arca had 'minor delays' on a computer server during the period, but says the problems were not significant and didn't add to the market's broader problems.


纽约证交所说,当时Arca的一个服务器存在"细微延迟",但问题不大,没有加剧市场的整体问题。



Computer systems at big brokerage firms were straining to keep up with the volume. Dark pools, trading venues that match buyers and sellers away from the major exchanges, had trouble getting accurate information. Some temporarily shut down.


大型经纪公司的计算机系统负荷过重,跟不上交易量的增加。"黑池"(dark pool,在主要交易所以外匹配买卖双方的交易场所)难以得到准确信息。一些黑池短暂关闭。



2:40 p.m., Dow down 415 points


下午2点40分,道指下跌415点



High-frequency-trading firms, which account for some two-thirds of U.S. stock-trading volume, were having their own problems. Their strategies often involve buying and selling stocks within microseconds -- or one-millionth of a second. The market's plunge, along with discrepancies in data feeds from exchanges, scrambled their computer-trading systems.


在美国股市交易量中占了大约三分之二的高频交易公司,同样也出现了问题。它们的策略常常包括在数个微秒(百万分之一秒)内完成交易。由于市场的重挫,加上从交易所录入的数据存在矛盾之处,它们的计算机交易系统出现了混乱。



With the Dow industrials down about 500 points, Tradebot Systems Inc., a Kansas City high-speed trading firm that says it can account for up to 5% of daily volume, pulled out. Other such firms did the same.


在道指下跌约500点的时候,堪萨斯城高频交易公司Tradebot Systems Inc.离场,其他这类公司也做了同样的事情。Tradebot公司说,它在日成交量当中最高可以占到5%。



The roar on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was deafening as the sell-off accelerated. The E-mini contract suddenly fell a massive 12.75 points in half a second, triggering a CME circuit-breaker that stopped trading for five seconds. The pause gave computerized futures-trading systems time to stabilize.


随着下跌加剧,芝加哥商业交易所(Chicago Mercantile Exchange,简称CME)交易池里的吵嚷声震耳欲聋。E-mini合约在半秒钟内突然大跌12.75点,引发CME的一个跌穿断路点(circuit-breaker),导致交易停止五秒钟。这一暂停让电脑化的期货交易系统有时间恢复稳定。



On the floor of the NYSE, the fast declines in some stocks were triggering brief slowdowns in trading, known as 'liquidity replenishment points,' to allow floor traders to step in and restore order. Other exchanges, such as the Nasdaq, didn't slow trading.


纽约证交所内,一些股价的急速下跌导致交易速度短时间内减慢。这种机制被称为"流动性补偿点"(liquidity replenishment points),目的是让交易池现场的交易员入场来恢复秩序。纳斯达克等其他交易所没有减缓交易。



Among the problems this caused were 'crossed' markets, where offers to buy were at prices higher than orders to sell. Around 2:46, for example, an investor offered to buy Apple for about $218, while another was willing to sell it for about $202. Such nonsensical quotes sent warning signals to computersystems and gave traders yet another reason to pull back.


这种机制造成的问题之一,是出现了"交叉"市场,也就是买单价格高于卖单价格。例如在2点46分时,一位投资者以218美元的要价下了购买苹果股票的订单,而另一位投资者愿意以202美元的价格卖出。这种离谱的报价向计算机系统发出警告信号,让交易员们有了撤出市场的新理由。



Stocks everywhere started to collapse. Apple lost more than $23 a share, or 10%, between 2:44 and 2:46. Procter & Gamble Co., which had been trading around $61.50, saw huge sell orders hit the NYSE, and the exchange briefly slowed trading in the stock. By 2:47, the market for P&G was in chaos, with orders to buy from NYSE, Nasdaq and the BATS scattered from $39.89 to $44.24. The basic function of the stock market -- bringing together buyers and sellers in an orderly fashion -- had broken down.


股价开始全线崩溃。在2点44分至2点46分期间,苹果公司(Apple)的股价下跌了23美元以上,跌幅达10%。有大量要求卖出洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co.)股票的指令下达给纽约证交所,这家证交所一度放缓了这只股票的交易速度。宝洁的股价此前一直维持在61.50美元左右。到2点47分时,宝洁股票的交投陷入混乱,来自纽约证交所、纳斯达克股票市场和BATS全球市场的买盘价从39.89美元到44.24美元不等。股票市场的基本功能──将买家和卖家有序地撮合在一起──这时候已经丧失。



Trades flickered across computer screens that made no sense. Shortly after 2:47, shares of Accenture PLC dropped in seconds from about $40 to one penny, then rebounded just as quickly. The explanation surfaced later: Market-making firms -- regular buyers and sellers of certain stocks -- have to maintain quotes at all times. To fulfill the requirement, they use 'stub quotes,' dummy quotes they never expect to be executed. But in the absence of buyers on May 6, computers matched automated sell orders with the dummy quotes.

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