Apple Inc.'s iPads and iPhones are flying off store
shelves. Consumers are snapping up laptops. Some companies are
opening the spigot on long-delayed upgrades to
computersystems.
果公司(Apple Inc.)的iPad和iPhone以飞快的速度从商店货架上卖出。消费者抢购笔记本电脑。一些企业开始重启延期已久的电脑系统升级工作。
Despite renewed worries about the global
economy, the technology industry is riding a
recovery that underscores the
evolution of the Internet.
尽管人们对全球经济又生担忧,科技行业却正经历复苏,这一过程彰显了互联网的发展变化。
More proof of the industry's improved health is likely to arrive this week in quarterly
financial results. Chip giant Intel Corp. is expected to get the ball rolling Tuesday with its fifth- straight upbeat
earnings report. Solid growth is expected from other tech bellwethers, including Google Inc. on Thursday and Apple on July 20.
本周陆续出炉的季度业绩报告将提供更多有关科技行业形势好转的证据。预计芯片巨头英特尔(Intel Corp.)将率先于周二公布连续第五个季度实现收益增长。预计其他科技领头羊公司也将公布强劲的增长,其中谷歌(Google Inc.)将在周四公布业绩,苹果公司将在7月20日公布。
So far, the upswing doesn't begin to match the tech booms of the late 1990s and the middle years of this
decade. And the stock prices of many technology companies have been under
pressure since the spring, reflecting fears that the
recovery's momentum can't continue.
目前为止,这种上升的趋势尚不及90年代末和前几年的科技热潮。很多科技公司的股价自春季以来一直承压,反映出人们担心复苏的势头无法持续。
But anecdotal evidence points to continued
consumer demand for smartphones, laptop
computers, software and other products, while some businesses are
beginning to step up spending on servers,
storagesystems and networking
equipment.
不过,零散的事例显示出消费者对智能手机、笔记本电脑、软件和其他产品的持续需求,而一些企业则开始增加在服务器、存储系统和网络设备上的支出。
Among factors behind the growth:
增长背后的推动因素包括:
• The market for personal
computers keeps defying predictions of an
inevitable slowdown. PC sales were expected to fall in 2009 due to the recession, but market researcher Gartner Inc. said shipments wound up rising 4.7%. The company projects a 20.3% jump in global unit shipments this year, aided by a nearly 29% increase in the home
computer market.
• 个人电脑市场一直与必然放缓的预测背道而驰。人们曾预计,衰退将造成2009年个人电脑销售下滑,不过市场研究公司Gartner Inc.却说,发货量最后增长了4.7%。该公司预测,由于家用电脑市场增长近29%,今年全球个人电脑发货量将增长20.3%。
• Apple said it sold more than 1.7 million iPhone 4s in the gadget's first five days on the market, making it the most successful product
launch in the company's history, according to CEO Steve Jobs --
despite concerns about the phone's cellular
reception. Apple also said it sold more than three million of its iPad devices in less than three months.
• 苹果公司说,iPhone 4上市的头五天,就销售了170多万部,据该公司首席执行长
乔布斯(Steve Jobs)说,这也成为苹果公司历史上最为成功的产品上市,尽管有人担心这款手机的信号接收性能。苹果公司还说,在不到三个月的时间里,已经销售了300多万部iPad平板电脑。
• Strong demand is causing rising prices and shortages for key tech components. Lead times for
delivery of some widely used semiconductors such as capacitors, rectifiers and transistors have stretched to 18 to 20 weeks in some cases, up from 10 to 12 weeks
normally, said iSuppli, another market-research firm.
• 强劲的需求造成主要科技产品元件价格上涨、供应短缺。另外一家市场研究公司iSuppli说,有些情况下,电容器、整流器和三极管等一些被广泛使用的半导体元件的交货时间已经从正常的10到12周延长到了18到20周。
• Makers of chip-manufacturing
equipment should enjoy a 113.2% increase in capital spending in 2010 after a prolonged slump, Gartner predicts.
• Gartner预计,2010年芯片设备生产商资本支出在长期下跌后应将增长113.2%。
• Initial stock offerings and acquisitions of tech companies have rebounded, improving confidence among investors to help fund new companies. Investments by U.S.
venture capitalists rose 12% in the first quarter, compared with a 29%
plunge for all of 2009.
• 科技企业的首次公开募股(IPO)和收购活动都出现回升,投资者信心改善帮助资助新企业。第一季度美国风险资本家的投资增长了12%,而2009年全年为下跌29%。
'There's strong,
durable,
authentic momentum,' said Rich Wong, a
partner at Accel Partners, a Silicon Valley
venture-capital firm.
硅谷风险投资企业Accel Partners合伙人Rich Wong说,这里有强大、持久和真正的势头。
Such momentum can shift quickly, as it did in the fall of 2008, when many
consumers and companies dramatically cut tech spending. Earlier this month, Gartner Inc. trimmed its world-wide spending
forecast for all information-technology spending to 3.9% in 2010 -- down from a
previousforecast of 5.3% growth -- due to the rocky economic situation in Europe.
这样的势头可以很快转变,就像2008年秋天时那样,当时许多消费者和企业大幅削减了科技支出。本月稍早,Gartner Inc.将其预估的2010年全球信息科技业(IT)支出增幅减少至3.9%,低于之前预估的增长5.3%,主要是由于欧洲经济形势不稳。
But there is a countervailing force against the
inevitable cycles in the industry: the growing importance of the Internet.
但仍有弥补因素应对该行业不可避免的周期:互联网越来越重要。
Consumers in some countries continue to go on the Web for the first time, while those in other regions increase their time online as video and other Web-delivered services become ever more important to
employment,
entertainment and education.
一些国家首次上网的消费者不断增加,同时其他地区的消费者增加了他们在网上的时间,因为视频和网络提供的服务对于招聘、娱乐和教育越来越重要了。
The trend is helping bolster companies like Cisco Systems Inc., which sells
hardware for moving Internet data. Cisco in May said
revenue climbed 27% in its third
fiscal quarter, and it is betting heavily on technology that enables lifelike videoconferences.
这一趋势将帮助支持思科系统(Cisco Systems Inc., 简称:思科)这样的企业,该公司出售用于传送互联网数据的硬件。思科5月时公布,其第三财季营收上升27%,并宣布正重金押注可实现高仿真视频会议的技术。
As laptops become the
dominant way to go online, home
computer usage has changed fundamentally, Intel executives say. Where many homes once had one or at most two desktop
computers, laptops have become as personal to many people as cellphones;
everyone in a household
increasingly wants his or her own, further boosting sales.
英特尔高层人士说,在笔记本电脑成为上网的主要方式时,家用电脑的使用发生了根本性转变。许多家庭过去一度拥有一台或至多两台台式电脑,但目前对许多人来说,笔记本电脑已像手机一样成为个人用品;家里的每个人越来越希望拥有自己的笔记本电脑,这进一步提升了销售。
'We are far away from saturation,' said Mooly Eden, vice president and general
manager of Intel's PC
client group, during an analyst meeting in May.
英特尔副总裁兼PC客户部门总经理伊登(Mooly Eden)在5月举行的分析师会议上说,我们还远没有到达饱和的程度。
Meantime, many companies are making plans to upgrade to Microsoft Corp.'s new operating
system, Windows 7, which is further driving
hardware spending.
与此同时,许多公司正计划升级至微软(Microsoft Corp.)的新操作系统Windows 7,这将进一步带动硬件支出。
Spending by businesses 'has improved dramatically' from a year ago, said Bob Muglia, president of Microsoft's server and tools business.
微软服务器和工具部门总裁穆格里亚(Bob Muglia)说,企业支出较上年同期大幅提升。