Some words of
wisdom to soccer
players this week who find themselves in the
precarious position of needing to make a
penalty kick: Shoot high and aim right.
周如果有哪个球队发现自己处境危险,需要用点球来弥补,这里给他们一点忠告:踢高些,往右瞄。
There's no doubt some
penalty kicks are the product of luck -- the
keeper jumped left at the same time the kicker shot right -- but there's a clear pattern for success in the four World Cups dating to 1998. The most-fruitful spot is the top-right
portion of the goal, where
players have converted 12 of 13 shots for a 92.3%
conversion rate. That's 17% better than the 19 shots aimed toward the top left, where 15 have gone in.
无疑某些点球是靠运气踢中的,比如射手把球往右踢时门将扑到了左边。但从1998年以来的四届世界杯当中,成功的点球还是有一个清晰的套路。最容易成功的是踢向球门的右上部分,13个这样的点球踢进了12个,成功率达92.3%。有19个点球瞄准左上方,进了15个,所以踢右上方比左上方的成功率要高出17%。
This right-side
advantage continues in the lower
portion of the net, where the success rate for kicks to the right is 64.3% compared with 55.6% in the lower left. The
explanation for this one-sided dominance is
partially that a shot to the right favors the
offensiveplayer, who's likely right-handed and thus more powerful to that side. This
simultaneously puts the
keeper at a dis
advantage because he's also likely right-handed and is forced to jump to his left to save the ball.
如果踢球门下方,这种右方优势仍然存在,踢右的成功率是64.3%,踢左的成功率为55.6%。这种现象的部分原因在于,攻方很可能是惯用右手右脚,往右踢对他有利,因此威力更大。这同时让守门员处于不利地位,因为他也很有可能习惯于用右手右脚,而救球的时候不得不往左边扑。
As for the
temptation of shooting down the center and embarrassing the
keeper -- save it for
amateur hour. There have been 20 such attempts since 1998, and only 60% have found the back of the net.
想要径直往中间踢、羞辱守门员一下吗?还是留到非正式比赛的时候吧。自1998年以来,这样的点球踢法曾有20例,结果只有60%进了网。