For many commodities traders, the past quarter is one that they wish they had never lived through.
许多大宗商品交易员而言,他们希望上一个季度只是一场梦。
An upbeat start to the quarter quickly unraveled as concerns about debt problems in the European Union took a turn for the worse in late April. Fears of a double-dip recession trumped rays of hope for an economic
recovery, driving down prices for
industrial raw materials.
第二季度开局很好,但4月底,对欧盟国家债务问题的担忧开始恶化,乐观形势迅速瓦解。对双底衰退的恐惧战胜了对经济复苏的一丝期待,导致工业原材料价格下跌。
Hit with the double whammy, some commodities in May went through the deepest pullback since the onset of the
financialcrisis. 'After a long period of
relative clam, volatility finally returned to the
commodity markets with a vengeance' in the second quarter, wrote Kevin Norrish,
director of commodities
research at Barclays Capital.
受双重打击影响,5月部分大宗商品出现了自金融危机开始以来的最大跌幅。巴克莱(Barclays Capital)的大宗商品研究主任诺里什(Kevin Norrish)写道,在长时间相对平静之后,第二季度大宗商品市场最终开始再次剧烈下挫。
In May, crude oil slid as much as 21% over a span of 14 days as the EU debt
crisis deepened. Palladium, a metal buoyed by signs of a recovering auto industry, lost up to 28%. Copper, an indicator of economic growth, plunged 24%. The broad-based Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index retreated as much as 11%.
5月,随着欧盟债务危机加剧,原油价格在14天内的跌幅高达21%;曾被汽车行业回暖迹象拉高的金属──钯的跌幅高达28%;经济增长的指示器──铜价下跌24%。涵盖广泛的道琼斯瑞银大宗商品指数(Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index)下挫多达11%。
The decline of commodities was aggravated by investors'
flight to the dollar as a safer asset. Along with the greenback's rise against other currencies, commodities -- often quoted in the dollar -- fell in price.
投资者把美元作为一种更安全的资产争相购入,从而加剧了大宗商品市场的衰退。随着美元兑其它货币的升值,通常以美元报价的大宗商品的价格下跌。
Amid all the gloom, gold continued to set records in all major currencies, as rattled investors sought to
preserve their
wealth against the volatile markets and declining currencies. In dollar terms, the precious metal hit a record of $1,257.20 per troy ounce on June 18 at the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the quarter, gold gained 11.9% to settle at $1,245.50 an ounce.
阴云密布之中,由于慌乱的投资者试图保护其财富免受市场波动及货币贬值的拖累,以各主要货币标定的金价继续创下新高。6月18日,纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange)的金价再创新高,达每盎司1,257.20美元。本季度,金价上涨11.9%,至每盎司1,245.50美元。
Toward the end of the quarter, the free-fall of the euro was arrested and investors turned their focus back to the
economy. 'The fact is that growth, although patchy, is still intact,' said Edward Meir, a
seniorcommodity analyst at MF Global. Some of May's losses were recouped in June, helping the Dow Jones-UBS index finish the quarter with a drop of 4.9%.
本季度即将结束时,欧元迅速下跌的势头得到遏制,投资者开始关注经济。全球曼氏金融(MF Global) 资深大宗商品分析师梅尔(Edward Meir)说,事实上,尽管情况不一,但增长仍在继续。5月的部分损失在6月得以弥补,从而使道琼斯瑞银大宗商品指数在本季度结束时仅下跌了4.9%。
Indeed, Mr. Norrish noted that there has been 'a
remarkable level of disconnectedness' between the pessimistic
sentiment afflicting
financial markets and the steady flow of stronger-than-expected economic and
commodity-specific data.
的确,诺里什注意到一个明显的脱节现象,即困扰金融市场的悲观情绪未因好于预期的经济与具体大宗商品数据持续出现而有所改善。
In the U.S., for example,
initial claims for jobless benefits fell throughout the quarter on a four-week average basis, indicating a stabilizing job market and heralding greater demand for materials. Meanwhile, China remained an avid buyer of crude oil,
copper and corn, a driving force for commodities prices.
例如,基于四周平均水平,美国首次领取失业救济的人数在本季度持续下降,显示就业市场企稳并预示着市场对原料有着更大的需求。与此同时,中国仍大量购买原油、铜和玉米,成为大宗商品价格的推动力量。
The disconnect between the direction of commodities prices and economic indicators, Mr. Norrish said, reflects the 'fragile and easily shaken' faith in
recovery after an
unprecedentedfinancialcrisis.
诺里什说,大宗商品价格走向与经济指标之间的脱节反应出在一场前所未有的金融危机之后,人们对复苏的信心十分脆弱且易于动摇。
One of the biggest
commodity stories of the quarter -- if not the one with the most immediate
impact -- was the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. BP PLC's fatal accident on a deep-water drilling rig in late April, and the company's numerous failed attempts to stop the oil from gushing, 'contributed to the feeling of helplessness,' Mr. Meir said.
就算不是影响最立竿见影的事故之一,墨西哥湾漏油事故也是本季度大宗商品市场最重要的新闻之一。梅尔说,4月末英国石油公司(BP PLC)深海钻井平台的灾难性事故,再加上该公司无数次制止石油泄漏的努力均失败告终,加重了这种无助感。
Still, oil prices on the front end were largely
unmoved, as the leak -- estimated to be up to 100,000
barrels a day -- isn't a
significantamountrelative to the world's
consumption of about 86 million
barrels a day.
尽管如此,前端油价基本未变。其原因在于,虽然据估计漏油量高达每天10万桶,但与全球每天约8600万桶的耗油量相比仍显微不足道。
However, the
impact on oil markets is likely to be '
significant in several years' horizon,' said Antoine Halff, head of
commodityresearch at Newedge USA. Oil companies may reconsider future deep-water projects as costs are likely to increase because of higher compliance and environmental expenses, he said.
然而,Newedge USA大宗商品研究负责人哈尔夫(Antoine Halff)说,这一事件在数年内均很可能对石油市场产生重大的影响。由于合规要求和环保费用更高,成本也很可能增加,石油公司或许会重新考虑未来的深海项目。
The uncertainties
surrounding oil-production growth in the future were supportive of prices at the back end of the curve, widening the spreads between spot prices and deferred contracts. After a wild ride, crude oil closed the quarter at $75.63 a
barrel, down 9.7%. However, oil futures for
delivery in December 2018 -- the furthest contract
available at Nymex -- declined only 1.5% to $90.08 a
barrel.
未来石油生产增长的不确定性对未来油价起到了支撑作用,扩大了现货价格与延期合约之间的价差。在一段大跌之后,本季度原油价格下跌9.7%,至每桶75.63美元。然而,纽约商品交易所提供的最远期合约──2018年12月交付的石油期货仅下跌1.5%,至每桶90.08美元。