The stock market hasn't been kind to bulls lately. And the mauling may be set to only get worse.
近股市多头的日子不太好过，而这种煎熬或许还会变得更加难以忍受。
That at least is the warning from some technical indicators, those chart-based omens that analysts examine to divine the market's direction. The S&P 500-stock index, in particular, is in danger of tripping over a talisman that has boded ill in the past. The index's 15% selloff since late April looks set to push the market's 50-day moving average below its 200-day moving average, in what is known as a 'death cross.'
这至少是部分技术指标发出的警告。技术指标是通过股价走势图表显示出来的征兆，分析师在经过分析后用来预测市场走向。其中，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500-stock index)就有可能撞上一个在过去预示着凶险的兆头。这一指数自4月下旬以来已经下跌15%，很有可能使其50日移动平均线行至200日移动平均线下方，形成一个所谓的"死亡交叉"。
As the label suggests, this tends to be a bearish signal. Its opposite is known as a 'golden cross,' which is a bullish sign. The last death cross formed in late December 2007; the S&P 500 went on to lose more than half of its value.
顾名思义，这往往会是一个看跌信号。它的反面被叫做"黄金交叉"，是一个看涨信号。上一次形成死亡交叉是在2007年12月，后来标普500缩水超过一半。
Such a death cross also has marked every other bear market since 1972, notes Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. And the market's 50-day average is currently less than 1% above this tipping point.
研究公司Yardeni Research总裁亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)指出，这样一种死亡交叉，也是1972年以来其他每一轮熊市的特征。而且，目前市场50日移动平均线离这个临界点的位置只高出不到1%。
The trouble with such technical patterns and formations, which are often derided as a form of hocus-pocus by investors more focused on fundamentals, is that they tend to be a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is especially the case given how many people in markets watch them.
这类技术分析常常被更加关注于基本面的投资者讥为骗人的花招，其问题在于，技术指标往往会在某种程度上成为一种自我实现的预言。考虑到市场上有多少人关注技术指标，更是可以这么说。
So as the market sells off, short-term averages by definition will fall more quickly than longer-term ones. The bearish signals that result then reinforce the downward trend. In other words, the danger of a death cross is that it puts further pressure on already eroding investorsentiment.
所以，在市场下挫的时候，短期平均值肯定会比长期平均值下跌得更快，从中出现的看跌信号然后就会加剧下跌趋势。换句话说，死亡交叉的危险之处，在于它让已经在恶化的投资者情绪雪上加霜。
The cross itself isn't always a surefire sell signal. There have been nearly two dozen death crosses over the past four decades, notes Brockhouse Cooper strategist Pierre Lapointe. The S&P 500 has declined by 0.4% on average one month after such a formation. After six months, on the other hand, the market on average had gained nearly 5%.
交叉本身并不一定总是看跌信号。投资咨询机构Brockhouse Cooper策略师拉普安特(Pierre Lapointe)指出，过去四十年已经出现了20个左右的死亡交叉。在出现这种信号过后的一个月，标普500平均下跌0.4%；六个月后，市场又平均涨了接近5%。
But that may be cold comfort if stocks' sharp rebound since early 2009 was a classic bear-market rally. If so, the current selloff is more likely the start of a longer period of weakness, says Andrew Chevariat a technical analyst at BNP Paribas.
但如果说股市自2009年年初以来的反弹属于一种典型的熊市反弹，那么这些情况对投资者就起不到什么安慰作用。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)技术分析师Andrew Chevariat说，果真如此，当前的下跌更有可能是一轮更长期疲软走势的开始。
Whether or not such signals are a guide to the future, they do affectsentiment. And this severetechnicalweakness is the last thing the market needs heading into Friday's vital jobs report.
不管这种信号可不可以为将来提供指引，但它们对投资者的情绪不无影响。而在周五重要的就业报告即将发布之际，这种技术面的严重弱势是市场最不想看到的。
Kelly Evans
- lately [´leitli]
ad.近来，不久前 (初中英语单词) - divine [di´vain] a.神圣的 v.预言 (初中英语单词)
- research [ri´sə:tʃ] n.&vi.调查；探究；研究 (初中英语单词)
- pressure [´preʃə] n.压榨 vt.对...施压力 (初中英语单词)
- weakness [´wi:knis] n.虚弱；弱点，缺点 (初中英语单词)
- affect [ə´fekt] vt.影响；感动；假装 (初中英语单词)
- sentiment [´sentimənt] n.情绪；多愁善感 (初中英语单词)
- severe [si´viə] a.严厉的；苛刻的 (初中英语单词)
- technical [´teknikəl] a.技术的；专门性的 (高中英语单词)
- prophecy [´prɔfisi] n.预言(能力) (高中英语单词)
- reinforce [,ri:in´fɔ:s] vt.增援 n.加固物 (高中英语单词)
- downward [´daunwəd] a.下降的，向下的 (高中英语单词)
- formation [fɔ:´meiʃən] n.形成；构成；排列 (高中英语单词)
- classic [´klæsik] a.第一流的 n.杰作 (高中英语单词)
- warning [´wɔ:niŋ] n.警告；前兆 a.预告的 (英语四级单词)
- definition [,defi´niʃən] n.限定；定义；明确 (英语四级单词)
- investor [in´vestə] n.投资者 (英语六级单词)
- cooper [´ku:pə] v.&n.制桶工人；修桶工人 (英语六级单词)
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