酷兔英语


When I heard that BP was destroying a big portion of Earth, with no serious discussion of cutting their dividend, I had two thoughts: 1) I hate them, and 2) This would be an excellent time to buy their stock. And so I did. Although I should have waited a week.


我听说英国石油公司(BP)正在破坏着地球上大片的环境,而且并未认真讨论过削减股息问题的时候,我有两个想法:第一,我憎恨他们;第二,这是买入英国石油股票的最佳时机。于是我这么做了,尽管我本该再等上一个星期。



People ask me how it feels to take the side of moral bankruptcy. Answer: Pretty good! Thanks for asking. How's it feel to be a disgruntled victim?


人们问我在选择道德堕落的时候心里有什么样的想法。我的回答是:感觉好极了!谢谢你问我这个问题。做个满腹愁怨的牺牲品感觉又如何呢?



I have a theory that you should invest in the companies that you hate the most. The usual reason for hating a company is that the company is so powerful it can make you balance your wallet on your nose while you beg for their product. Oil companies such as BP don't actually make you beg for oil, but I think we all realize that they could. It's implied in the price of gas.


我有一个理论,那就是你应该把钱投入到你最讨厌的公司。人们讨厌一家公司的理由通常是因为它太强大了,以至于它一边可以让你花掉很多钱,一边又在乞求得到它的产品。像英国石油这样的石油企业事实上并没有乞求过你购买它们的石油,但我想我们都认识到他们有能力这么做。这一点从燃气价格上就可以看出来。



I hate BP, but I admire them too, in the same way I respect the work ethic of serial killers. I remember the day I learned that BP was using a submarine...with a web cam...a mile under the sea...to feed live video of their disaster to the world. My mind screamed 'STOP TRYING TO MAKE ME LOVE YOU! MUST...THINK...OF DEAD BIRDS TO MAINTAIN ANGER!' The geeky side of me has a bit of a crush on them, but I still hate them for turning Florida into a dip stick.


我讨厌英国石油公司,但同时也仰慕着他们,就像我敬佩连环杀手的职业道德一样。我忘不了当我知道英国石油使用了一只潜水艇......上面还装有数字摄像头......从海底一英里处......向世界传回这场灾难的实时视频图像。我的头脑在尖叫着,"不要努力让我爱上你!必须......想......到那些死鸟来保持愤怒!"我那令人厌恶的一面让我有点儿爱上了这家公司,但我仍然讨厌他们把佛罗里达州变成了一把量油尺。



Apparently BP has its own navy, a small air force, and enough money to build floating cities on the sea, most of which are still upright. If there's oil on the moon, BP will be the first to send a hose into space and suck on the moon until it's the size of a grapefruit. As an investor, that's the side I want to be on, with BP, not the loser moon.


显而易见,英国石油拥有自己的海军、一支小规模的空军以及足够多的钱去建造海上城市,而且这些东西大部分仍然存在。如果月球上有石油的话,英国石油会第一个把输油管道送上太空,然后在月球上吸个不停,直到把月球吸成西柚一般大小。作为一名投资者,我愿意站在英国石油一方,而不是和失败的月球为伍。



Perhaps you think it's absurd to invest in companies just because you hate them. But let's compare my method to all of the other ways you could decide where to invest.


或许你认为,仅仅因为讨厌一些公司就对它们进行投资很是荒诞。那就让我们把我的方法和可以决定你投资方向的所有其他方式作一个比较。



Technical analysis


技术分析



Technical analysis involves studying graphs of stock movement over time as a way to predict future moves. It's a widely used method on Wall Street, and it has exactly the same scientific validity as pretending you are a witch and forecasting market moves from chicken droppings.


技术分析包括研究一段时间的股价走势图,从而预测股票未来的走势。这是华尔街普遍使用的方法,它的科学性与你假装巫婆并通过鸡粪来预测股市走向完全相同。



Investing in well-managed companies


投资于管理有方的公司



When companies make money, we assume they are well-managed. That perception is reinforced by the CEOs of those companies who are happy to tell you all the clever things they did to make it happen. The problem with relying on this source of information is that CEOs are highly skilled in a special form of lying called leadership. Leadership involves convincing employees and investors that the CEO has something called a vision, a type of optimistic hallucination that can come true only in an environment in which the CEO is massively overcompensated and the employees have learned to be less selfish.


当公司盈利的时候,我们会认为它们管理有方。这种想法会得到这些公司首席执行长们的强化,他们会很乐于告诉你为了实现盈利他们所做的一切精明之举。依靠这种信息来源的问题是,首席执行长非常熟练地掌握一种特殊的说谎形式──领导艺术。领导艺术包括使员工和投资者相信,首席执行长具备一种叫做远见的东西,而这种乐观的错觉只有在首席执行长得到过度补偿、员工们学会不那么自私利己的情况下才会美梦成真。



Track record


历史记录



Perhaps you can safelyinvest in companies that have a long track record of being profitable. That sounds safe and reasonable, right? The problem is that every investment expert knows two truths about investing: 1) Past performance is no indication of future performance. 2) You need to consider a company's track record.


或许你可以安全地投资于一些有着长期盈利记录的公司。这听起来既安全又合情合理,对吗?但问题是每个投资专家都明白关于投资的两条真理:一、过去的表现无法代表未来的走势;二、你需要考虑一家公司的历史记录。



Right, yes, those are opposites. And it's pretty much all that anyone knows about investing. An investment professional can argue for any sort of investment decision by selectively ignoring either point 1 or 2. And for that you will pay the investment professional 1% to 2% of your portfolio value annually, no matter the performance.


是的,没错,这两点相互矛盾。而且这可能是人们对投资的全部了解。一个职业投资者可以通过有选择地忽略其中之一而对任何投资决定进行辩护。为此,不论你的投资回报如何,你每年都需要向他们支付投资组合总价值的1%到2%。



Invest in companies you love


投资喜爱的公司



Instead of investing in companies you hate, as I have suggested, perhaps you could invest in companies you love. I once hired professional money managers at Wells Fargo to do essentially that for me. As part of their service they promised to listen to the dopey-happy hallucinations of professional liars (CEOs) and be gullible on my behalf. The pros at Wells Fargo bought for my portfolio Enron, WorldCom, and a number of other much-loved companies that soon went out of business. For that, I hate Wells Fargo. But I sure wish I had bought stock in Wells Fargo at the time I hated them the most, because Wells Fargo itself performed great. See how this works?


如果不按照我建议的那样向你讨厌的公司投资,或许你可以把资金投向你喜爱的公司。我曾经聘请了富国银行(Wells Fargo)的职业资金管理人来为我做这件事。作为服务的一部分,他们允诺要听取职业骗子们(首席执行长)的甜蜜谎言,然后代表我来上当受骗。富国银行的专业人士们为我买进了安然公司(Enron)、WorldCom以及很多其他深受喜爱、但不久以后就破产倒闭的公司的股票。正因如此,我讨厌富国银行。但是我的确希望我在最讨厌富国银行的时候买入它的股票,因为富国银行自己的股票表现极佳。明白这是怎么一回事了吧?



Do your own research


自己动手做研究



I didn't let Wells Fargo manage my entire portfolio, thanks to my native distrust of all humanity. For the other half of my portfolio I did my own research. (Imagine a field of red flags, all wildly waving. I didn't notice them.) My favorite investment was in a company I absolutely loved. I loved their business model. I loved their mission. I loved how they planned to make our daily lives easier. They were simply adorable as they struggled to change an entrenched industry. Their leaders reported that the company had finally turned cash positive in one key area, thus validating their business model, and proving that the future was rosy. I doubled down. The company was Webvan, may it rest in peace.


由于我对人类与生俱来的不信任感,我没有让富国银行管理我全部的投资组合。我自己对另一半投资组合作了研究。(想象一片土地上插满了迎风招展的警示小红旗,但我没有注意到它们。)我最得意的一笔投资就是投向了一家我喜爱的公司:我喜爱它们的商业模式;我喜爱它们的业务;我喜爱他们如何计划让我们的生活变得更便捷。单凭他们努力去改变一个墨守成规的产业这一点,他们就让人喜爱。公司领导层报告称他们在一个关键领域最终实现了盈利,从而证明他们的商业模式行之有效,公司的前景一片美好。于是我加倍投入了资金。我说的这家公司就是网上零售商Webvan公司,祝它平安。



(This would be a good time to remind you not to make investment decisions based on the wisdom of cartoonists.)


(现在正是提醒你不要根据漫画家的智慧做出投资决定的好时候。)



But what about Warren Buffett?


沃伦-巴菲特(Warren Buffett)如何?



The argument goes that if Warren Buffett can buy quality companies at reasonable prices, hold them for the long term and become a billionaire, then so can you. Do you know who would be the first person to tell you that you aren't smart enough or well-informed enough to pull that off? His name is Warren Buffett. OK, he's probably too nice to say that, but I'm pretty sure he's thinking it. However, he might tell you that he makes his money by knowing things that other people don't know, and buying things that other people can't buy, such as entire companies.


如果巴菲特能够以合理的价格买进优秀企业的股票,然后长期持有并成为亿万富翁的话,那么你也行。你知道谁会最先告诉你,因为你不够聪明或者你的消息不够灵通而不能实现这一理想吗?他就是沃伦?巴菲特。是的,他也许太过好心不会说出这样的话,但我确信他一定会这么想的。但是,他也许会告诉你,他能赚到钱是因为他知道别人不知道的东西,买得起别人买不起的东西,比如整个公司。



People love Berkshire Hathaway and that has done great


人们喜爱伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway),这家公司一直以来表现不错。



I'm not saying that the companies you love are automatically bad investments. I'm saying that investing in companies you love is riskier than investing in companies you hate.


我并不是说,你喜爱的公司无一例外地都是不良投资。我的意思是,比起向你讨厌的公司投资,向你喜爱的公司投资的风险更大。



Second, take a look at Berkshire Hathaway's holdings. It's a rogue's gallery of junk food purveyors, banks, insurance companies and yes, Goldman Sachs and Moody's. The second largest holding of Berkshire Hathaway is...wait for it...Wells Fargo.


第二,看一看伯克希尔哈撒韦公司持有股份的那些公司。这些公司真是形形色色,包括垃圾食品经销商、银行、保险公司以及──没错,还有高盛(Goldman Sachs)和穆迪(Moody's)。伯克希尔哈撒韦持股数量第二大的公司就是......等一下......富国银行。



(Disclosure: I own stock in Berkshire Hathaway for the very reasons I'm describing. And my first job out of college was at Crocker National Bank, later swallowed by Wells Fargo.)


(信息披露:我之所以持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票正是因为我上面提到的原因。而且,我在大学毕业后供职的第一家公司就是后来被富国银行吞并的Crocker National Bank。)



Let's talk about morality. Can you justify owning stock in companies that are treating the Earth like a prison pillow with a crayon face? Of course you can, but it takes some mental gymnastics. I'm here to help.


让我们来谈谈道德的问题。持有正在给地球造成灾难的公司的股票,你能找到正义的理由吗?当然可以,但是这需要开动脑筋。我可以帮助你认识到这一点。



If you buy stock in a despicable company, it means some of the previous owners of that company sold it to you. If the stock then rises more than the market average, you successfully screwed the previous owners of the hated company. That's exactly like justice, only better because you made a profit. Then you can sell your stocks for a gain and donate all of your earnings to good causes, such as education for your own kids.


如果你购买了一家卑鄙公司的股票,这意味着从前持有该公司股票的投资者把股票卖给了你。如果股价上涨的幅度高于市场平均表现,那么你就成功地击败了这家公司此前的股票持有者。这就相当于实现了正义,而且还要更好,因为你获得了利润。然后你就可以卖掉手中的股票,再把赚来的钱用在做好事上,比如加强自己孩子的教育。



SCOTT ADAMS
  • portion [´pɔ:ʃən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.嫁妆;命运 vt.分配 (初中英语单词)
  • discussion [di´skʌʃən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.讨论;辩论 (初中英语单词)
  • invest [in´vest] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.投资;授予 (初中英语单词)
  • actually [´æktʃuəli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.事实上;实际上 (初中英语单词)
  • disaster [di´zɑ:stə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.灾难,不幸 (初中英语单词)
  • maintain [mein´tein] 移动到这儿单词发声 vt.维持;保持;继续 (初中英语单词)
  • florida [´flɔridə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.佛罗里达 (初中英语单词)
  • absurd [əb´sə:d] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.荒谬的,可笑的 (初中英语单词)
  • analysis [ə´næləsis] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.分解;分析(结果) (初中英语单词)
  • movement [´mu:vmənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.活动;运动;动作 (初中英语单词)
  • scientific [,saiən´tifik] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.科学(上)的 (初中英语单词)
  • vision [´viʒən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.视觉;想象力;幻影 (初中英语单词)
  • safely [´seifli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.安全地;平安地 (初中英语单词)
  • reasonable [´rizənəbəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.合理的;有理智的 (初中英语单词)
  • investment [in´vestmənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.投资;(时间等)投入 (初中英语单词)
  • expert [´ekspə:t] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&a.专家;内行 (初中英语单词)
  • performance [pə´fɔ:məns] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.履行;行为;工作 (初中英语单词)
  • indication [,indi´keiʃən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.指示;征兆,迹象 (初中英语单词)
  • professional [prə´feʃənəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.职业的 n.自由职业 (初中英语单词)
  • humanity [hju:´mæniti] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.人类;人性;仁慈 (初中英语单词)
  • research [ri´sə:tʃ] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&vi.调查;探究;研究 (初中英语单词)
  • absolutely [´æbsəlu:tli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.绝对地;确实 (初中英语单词)
  • mission [´miʃən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.代表团;使馆vt.派遣 (初中英语单词)
  • remind [ri´maind] 移动到这儿单词发声 vt.提醒;使记(想)起 (初中英语单词)
  • wisdom [´wizdəm] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.智慧,聪明,才智 (初中英语单词)
  • argument [´ɑ:gjumənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.辩论;争论;论证 (初中英语单词)
  • knowing [´nəuiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.会意的,心照不宣的 (初中英语单词)
  • gallery [´gæləri] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.画廊;美术馆;长廊 (初中英语单词)
  • mental [´mentl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.精神的;心理的 (初中英语单词)
  • previous [´pri:viəs] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.先,前,以前的 (初中英语单词)
  • learned [´lə:nid] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.有学问的,博学的 (高中英语单词)
  • upright [´ʌprait] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.直立的 ad.直立地 (高中英语单词)
  • predict [pri´dikt] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.预言;预告;预示 (高中英语单词)
  • skilled [skild] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.有技能的,熟练的 (高中英语单词)
  • leadership [´li:dəʃip] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.领导(能力) (高中英语单词)
  • environment [in´vaiərənmənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.郊区;周围;条件 (高中英语单词)
  • profitable [´prɔfitəbəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.有益的;有用的 (高中英语单词)
  • annually [´ænjuəli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.每年;按年计算 (高中英语单词)
  • behalf [bi´hɑ:f] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.利益 (高中英语单词)
  • distrust [dis´trʌst] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&vt.不信任,怀疑 (高中英语单词)
  • positive [´pɔzətiv] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.确定的 (高中英语单词)
  • saying [´seiŋ, ´sei-iŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.言语;言论;格言 (高中英语单词)
  • successfully [sək´sesfəli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.成功地 (高中英语单词)
  • donate [dəu´neit] 移动到这儿单词发声 vt.捐赠 (高中英语单词)
  • dividend [´dividənd, -dend] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.被除数;股息 (英语四级单词)
  • bankruptcy [´bæŋkrʌptsi] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.破产 (英语四级单词)
  • wallet [´wɑ:lit] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.(放钞票等的)皮夹子 (英语四级单词)
  • trying [´traiiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.难堪的;费劲的 (英语四级单词)
  • perception [pə´sepʃən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.感觉;概念;理解力 (英语四级单词)
  • convincing [kən´vinsiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.有说服力的;有力的 (英语四级单词)
  • essentially [i´senʃəli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.本质上,基本上 (英语四级单词)
  • warren [´wɔrən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.养兔场;大杂院 (英语四级单词)
  • automatically [ɔ:tə´mætikli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.自动地;无意识地 (英语四级单词)
  • morality [mə´ræliti] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.道德;教训;伦理学 (英语四级单词)
  • investor [in´vestə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.投资者 (英语六级单词)
  • holding [´həuldiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.保持,固定,存储 (英语六级单词)
  • earnings [´ə:niŋz] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.收益;报酬;获得 (英语六级单词)