I'll bet your
broker has a bad case of B.O. right now.
敢打赌,你的股票经纪人目前有个买入机会,但却是个糟糕的机会。
'Buying opportunity!'
周二市场略有反弹,但目前已自4月高点下滑约15%。那应是买入之时了,对吧?我是说,在目前点位上,股票应该算很便宜了,是吧?
The market, which
bounced a little Tuesday, is down about 15% from the April highs. So it's time to buy, right? I mean, at this point shares have to be cheap, yes?
你很清楚这种论调:按部就班,要有长期目标,要遵守纪律,股票表现总是胜出,你没法抓住市场的先机,等等。
You know the drill: 'Stay the course...long-term goals...discipline...equities always outperform...you can't time the market...'
股价的确已下滑了一大截。当然,估值已合理,特别是某些蓝筹股,欧洲市场尤其如此。即便是最为看空的基金经理也承认,目前市场有点超卖了。
It's true prices have come down quite a ways. And yes, there are
reasonable values out there-especially among some of the blue chips, and
notably in Europe. Even the gloomiest fund
manager, concedes markets look 'a little oversold' right now.
但有个问题要问问你的纪纪人,就是认为存在买入机会的那个。
But here's a question for your
broker-the one with the B.O.
如果股票真的够便宜,那为何没有更多公司内部人士买呢?
If shares are so cheap, how come more company insiders aren't buying them?
研究公司董事及高管股票出入情况的Vickers Stock Research公司发布最新报告指出,公司内部人士再次看空。上周公司内部人士的股票买卖比率在一周的暂时反弹后,断然下探。报告中说,即便在股价经历了数周下行后,内部人士仍按兵不动。
'Insider
sentiment is once again bearish,' notes the latest report from Vickers Stock Research, which tracks buying and selling by company directors and executives. The insider buys vs. insider sells ratio moved 'decisively' bearish last week after a brief, one-week
bounce, it adds. Even after weeks of share price falls, insiders are sitting on their hands, it says.
在过去10年多次最大的买入机会中,公司高管们一直是自身公司股的积极回购者。在"9.11"事件后的恐慌中是如此,2002年至2003年的市场危机中如此,2008年至2009年的市场崩盘中当然也是如此。
During the biggest buying opportunities of the past
decade executives have been eager buyers of stocks in their own companies. That was true in the panic after 9/11, during the market crises of 2002-3, and of course during the
collapse of 2008-9.
现在呢?并非如此。
Right now? Not so much.
报告中说,过去八周中,内部人士抛售的股票远超过购入的股票,比例约为三比一。这与2003年至2007年牛市中八周的平均动态大致相吻合,而远远低于从那之后的平均走势。
Over the past eight weeks, says Vickers, insider stock sales have outweighed purchases by about three to one. That's
roughly in line with the eight-week moving average over the 2003-7 bull market, and far, far below the average since.
该数据并非极度悲观,但也远非看涨。数据也几乎没显示市场处于甩卖中,即便经过了近期的下挫。
The figure isn't disastrously bearish. But it's hardly bullish. And it hardly suggests the market is on sale, even after the recent slump.
这也并非是唯一的谨慎信号。
It isn't the only
cautious sign, either.
美国经济周期研究所(Economic Cycle Research Institute)公布的每周经济先行指标的下滑速度比2008年崩盘之时还要快。这项备受关注的指标采纳了从经济增长到通胀,直至价格的一系列经济数据,以便预测经济的下一步走势。
The
weekly leading economic indicator published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute has just plummeted faster than it did during the 2008 crash.The highly-regarded ECRI indicator draws on an array of economic data, from growth to inflation to prices, in an attempt to
predict the next moves in the economy.
伦敦SG Securities策略师们的研究也表明,甚至股票分析师们也开始担忧起来。SG Securities的研究报告称,过去六周左右的时间里,股票分析师们对盈利的乐观性已下滑,显示在盈利上调对盈利下调的比率下降。
Research by strategists at SG Securities in London also reveals that even
equity analysts are starting to get worried. Their optimism on
earnings-defined as the ratio of
earnings upgrades to downgrades-has plunged in the last six or so weeks, SG reports.
此外,以其它方式来衡量,股票似乎也并不便宜。根据耶鲁大学(Yale University)教授希勒(Robert Shiller)发布的数据,股市经周期性调整后的市盈率目前约为20倍。以历史标准看,这一水平极高。希勒说,追溯到维多利亚(Victorian)时代的平均市盈率约为16倍。
And it's not as if stocks are cheap by other measures either. The cyclically-adjusted price-to-
earnings ratio on the stock market remains at around 20, according to data published by Yale University professor Robert Shiller. That's very high by
historic standards. The average, stretching back to the Victorian era, is about 16, he says.
永远不要对市场过于悲观或过于乐观。六周之前,投资者太过乐观了。而过于悲观的时刻尚未到来。
It never does to get too
gloomy or too
cheerful about markets. Six weeks ago investors were far too
cheerful. The too
gloomy moment has not arrived.