Crisis, what crisis? In May, the very existence of the euro was called into question by sovereign fears, and markets trembled at the currency's tumble against the dollar. Yet the last time the euro was truly out of favor, in 2000 and 2001 shortly after its introduction, it hit $0.825. At $1.22, it is smack in the middle of its trading history.
机？什么危机？在5月份，主权信用方面的担忧让欧元的存在本身就受到了质疑，而它对美元一路狂跌，也让市场直打哆嗦。但欧元上次真正失宠的时候，也就是在诞生不久的2000年到2001年，一度跌到了0.825美元。现在欧元兑美元比价为1.22，刚好处在历史波动区间的中间水平。
Rather, last month's fear centered on the speed of the decline. The euro is down 15% year to date, with half of the move in May alone, leaving it 24% below its 2008 high. The sharp fall has coincided with a freeze in risk appetite. Credit spreads have surged in lock step with the euro's slide, deterring borrowers, in particular banks. By contrast, as the Greek crisis built in February and March, the euro held relatively steady, spreads tightened and issuance was heavy.
其实上个月的担忧主要是集中在欧元的下跌速度上。欧元年初至今贬值15%，其中有一半发生在5月份这一个月，这样一来，较2008年的高点就下跌了24%。这种急剧下跌与风险偏好的冻结是同时发生的，伴随着欧元的下挫，信贷息差大幅飙升，给借款人、特别是银行造成了压力。相比之下，在希腊危机于2月份和3月份逐步积累时，欧元保守了相对稳定，信贷息差收窄，发行量也很大。
A pause in the currency rout would be welcome for credit markets. And in the past week, following a short squeeze that led some investors to trim positions, the euro has found some stability. But the general slide will likely continue.
对信贷市场来说，如果欧元停止恶性下跌，那将是好事。而在过去一个星期，经过一段空头轧平、让一些投资者削减空头头寸之后，欧元确实出现了一定的稳定。但整体下跌趋势可能还会继续。
The institutional arrangements for the euro are now in flux, with Europe scrambling to inventemergency backstop measures on the hoof. Political risk has risen, with euro-zone politicians displaying a lack of unanimity that has dismayed investors. Unusually, Bundesbank chief Axel Weber has gone public on his disagreement with the European Central Bank policy of buying government bonds. And while the weaker euro may give a fillip to growth, the ECB seems unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon.
欧元的制度安排处于变化之中，欧洲正在急急忙忙、手忙脚乱地推出各种应急担保措施。政治风险已经上升，欧元区的政治家们显得缺乏一致，让投资者感到不安。德国央行行长韦伯(Axel Weber)曾罕见地公开表示反对欧洲央行(European Central Bank)购买国债的政策。另外，虽然欧元走弱可能给经济增长带来刺激，但欧洲央行似乎不太可能很快上调利率。
All that suggests the euro will retain its status as a funding currency for carry trades, reducing any chance of a bounce. The hope for Europe's funding markets is that any declines will be more measured from here.
这一切都说明，欧元将继续保持套利交易融资货币的地位，这就减少了它可能存在的反弹机会。欧洲的信贷市场只能指望，今后欧元要跌就跌得慢一些。
Richard Barley
- existence [ig´zistəns]
n.存在；生存；生活 (初中英语单词) - sovereign [´sɔvrin] a.至高无上的 n.君主 (初中英语单词)
- shortly [´ʃɔ:tli] ad.立刻，马上；不久 (初中英语单词)
- introduction [,intrə´dʌkʃən] n.介绍；引言；引导 (初中英语单词)
- freeze [fri:z] v.结冰；凝固；冷淡 (初中英语单词)
- appetite [´æpitait] n.欲望；食欲 (初中英语单词)
- contrast [´kɔntrɑ:st] n.对比 v.使对比(照) (初中英语单词)
- welcome [´welkəm] a.受欢迎的；可喜的 (初中英语单词)
- invent [in´vent] vt.发明；捏造 (初中英语单词)
- european [juərə´pi:ən] a.欧洲的 n.欧洲人 (初中英语单词)
- anytime [´enitaim] ad.无论什么时候 (初中英语单词)
- retain [ri´tein] vt.保持；保留；留住 (初中英语单词)
- crisis [´kraisis] n.转折点；危机 (高中英语单词)
- relatively [´relətivli] ad.比较地；相对地 (高中英语单词)
- currency [´kʌrənsi] n.通货；通用；货币 (高中英语单词)
- squeeze [skwi:z] v.&n.压榨，榨取 (高中英语单词)
- emergency [i´mə:dʒənsi] n.事变；紧急关头 (高中英语单词)
- bounce [bauns] v.&n.(使)反弹；拍 (高中英语单词)
- barley [´bɑ:li] n.大麦 (高中英语单词)
- stability [stə´biliti] n.稳定；巩固；坚定 (英语四级单词)
- unusually [ʌn´ju:ʒuəli] ad.异常地；非常 (英语四级单词)
- policy [´pɔlisi] n.政策；权谋；保险单 (英语四级单词)
- status [´steitəs] n.身份；情形；状况 (英语四级单词)
- disagreement [,disə´gri:mənt] n.不一致；争论 (英语六级单词)
- unlikely [ʌn´laikli] a.不像的；未必可能的 (英语六级单词)
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