China and India may soon find another turf to
compete for: their currencies' clout.
印两国很快将发现另一个展开竞争的领域,即其货币的影响力。
It's an idea that has some economists at the Reserve Bank of India thinking. A recent study from the central bank says that the growing economic
prowess of China and India makes their
respective currencies -- the yuan and the rupee -- contenders for greater
international use. But the researchers are worried the rupee could be left behind.
这是印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)内某些经济学家的观点。印度央行一项最新研究称,中印两国经济影响力不断上升,使得两国各自的货币,即人民币与卢比,成为竞争者,比试谁有更大的国际用途。但这些研究人员担心卢比可能会落败。
The RBI economists expect the yuan to grow in importance as a regional
currency in Asia,
eventually -- one
far-off day -- becoming a global reserve
currency. For India, the researchers draw a clear
conclusion: India needs to 'increase the role of the rupee in the [Asian] region to catch up with the growing influence of the Chinese renminbi.'
印度央行的经济学家预计,人民币作为亚洲区域性货币的重要性将增加,并最终在未来的某日,成为一种全球性储备货币。对于印度,研究者们得出一个清晰的结论,即印度要增强卢比在亚洲的作用,以赶上中国人民币不断扩大的影响力。
True, India's
currency,
unlike China's, floats almost
freely and isn't pegged to the dollar. But the rupee can't
officially be used for
international transactions other than with Nepal and Bhutan, while foreigners face limits on their holdings of both assets and liabilities denominated in rupees.
印度的卢比几乎可自由流通,且不盯住美元,这一点的确与中国的人民币不同。但除尼泊尔及不丹,卢比不能正式用于国际交易,而且外国人持有卢比资产或负债会受到限制。
One worry about further liberalization of the rupee is that this will increase its already high vulnerability to rapid capital withdrawal at times of economic
stress. Even with restrictions in place, the
currency was whipsawed in 2008 and 2009, dropping 23% before rising 13% against the dollar in just 26 months, as investors rushed out and in. A drop in the
currency would be far worse for India, which runs trade deficits, than for China, which has a large trade
surplus. Sharp
appreciation of either
currency,
meanwhile, creates problems for exporters.
对于卢比进一步放开的一个担忧是,在经济面临压力之时,这会使本已易受资本快速回收影响的卢比的波动性进一步加大。即便有限制性规定,卢比在2008年及2009年也曾遭受重挫,在短短26个月时间内,投资者快出快进,导致卢比兑美元大幅波动,先下挫23%,而后又上扬13%。货币下跌对出现贸易赤字的印度产生的不良影响远远大于具有大额贸易盈余的中国。而与此同时,两国货币若出现大幅升值均会对出口商带来不利影响。
These short-term risks may be the price India has to pay to ensure that its clout in the region keeps up with the size of its
economy in the long run. Eventually,
currency dominance will depend on how much faith investors put in the two economies, the
stability of their markets and their
politics. It's clear that some at the RBI are worried about India sleepwalking into a world -- or at least an Asia -- where the yuan wins that race.
而短期风险可能是,印度要确保与其经济规模相称的长期地区影响力不得不付出的代价。而货币影响力最终将取决于投资者对两国经济,以及两国市场与政治稳定性的信任程度。很明显,印度央行的某些人正在为印度担忧,因在两者的竞争中,人民币将在全球、至少是亚洲,成为赢家。
Harsh Joshi / Andrew Peaple