Goldman Sachs's Jim O'Neil takes the credit for labeling the emerging-markets giants as the BRICs, and he continues to espouse this cause. Amid the gloom enveloping so much analysis, he finds reasons for constant optimism.

His latest good cheer comes in the shape of China's March trade figures. The first monthlydeficit in six years may be an aberration, for the country hasn't put the brakes on exporting, but, points out Mr. O'Neill, just look at the scale of the imports.

For that single month, imports, at $119.4 billion, were up $47.5 billion compared with a year earlier. During the first quarter as a whole, imports at $301.7 billion had leapt by $118.4 billion from the previous year.

While politicians get vexed about the strength of the yuan and try to goad China into letting its currencyappreciate, Mr. O'Neill prefers to concentrate on the good news: If Chinese imports continue to grow at this rate for the entire year, the effect will be as significant as if another Indonesia, Sweden or Turkey had burst onto the trading scene.

Optimists such as Mr. O'Neill see China and the other BRICs -- Brazil, Russia and India -- as the force that could help pull the West out of its doldrums. But, while that could be a welcome spin off of the growing strength of that country, China's ambitions lack any element of altruism.

As if to underline that message, this week has seen China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. paying $4.65 billion for a stake in the Syncrude Canada oil-sands project. A month earlier, Chinese oil-exploration company Cnooc paid more than $3 billion for a stake in a major Argentinian oil-exploration company. China is now amassing energy assets at a phenomenal rate, in Africa as well as the Americas, where it no longer seems to be coming up against the protectionist objections that prevented its planned takeover of Unocal Corp. back in 2005.

Despite the posturing over tariffs that continues between the U.S. and China, perhaps there is a tacit acceptance in Washington of the importance of retaining China as a welcoming market for U.S. imports.

This week, U.S. President Barack Obama has been welcoming BRIC leaders, along with more than 40 others, to his nuclear summit. Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, took the opportunity to call on the BRICs to work together, not merely to use their influence in security matters but more widely, for instance, in financial matters.

That will now be on the agenda for the BRIC summit to be held shortly in Brasilia. Tensions between the four countries are many, but their growing strength represents a massive change in the balance of power in the world.

The contrast between the BRICs and the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) is a painful one for Europe to confront.

Yet given the recent happenings in Greece and the potential for similar -- if not so extreme -- events in other European countries, there is no escaping the fact that the map of global influence now looks very different.

Western politicians are understandably reluctant to confront this fact. It is one thing to point to the economic challenge posed by the merging markets, and cite it as a reason why investment in education and science has to be improved if the West is to compete. It is an entirely different matter to admit to a shrinking presence in the world's power league.

Patience Wheatcroft

• analysis [ə´næləsis] n.分解；分析(结果) (初中词汇)
• constant [´kɔnstənt] a.坚定的；坚贞的 (初中词汇)
• previous [´pri:viəs] a.先，前，以前的 (初中词汇)
• appreciate [ə´pri:ʃieit] v.评价；珍惜；感激 (初中词汇)
• concentrate [´kɔnsəntreit] v.聚集；浓缩；全神贯注 (初中词汇)
• turkey [´tə:ki] n.火鸡 (初中词汇)
• welcome [´welkəm] a.受欢迎的；可喜的 (初中词汇)
• chemical [´kemikəl] a.化学的 n.化学制品 (初中词汇)
• project [prə´dʒekt, ´prɔdʒekt] v.设计；投掷 n.计划 (初中词汇)
• energy [´enədʒi] n.活力，精力；能力 (初中词汇)
• security [si´kjuəriti] n.安全；证券；抵押品 (初中词汇)
• instance [´instəns] n.例子，实例，例证 (初中词汇)
• financial [fi´nænʃəl] a.金融的，财政的 (初中词汇)
• shortly [´ʃɔ:tli] ad.立刻，马上；不久 (初中词汇)
• contrast [´kɔntrɑ:st] n.对比 v.使对比(照) (初中词汇)
• greece [gri:s] n.希腊 (初中词汇)
• extreme [ik´stri:m] a.尽头的 n.极端 (初中词汇)
• european [juərə´pi:ən] a.欧洲的 n.欧洲人 (初中词汇)
• challenge [´tʃælindʒ] n.&vt.向....挑战；怀疑 (初中词汇)
• investment [in´vestmənt] n.投资；(时间等)投入 (初中词汇)
• compete [kəm´pi:t] v.比赛，竞争，对抗 (初中词汇)
• monthly [´mʌnθli] a.每月(的) n.月刊 (高中词汇)
• billion [´biljən] num.万亿 (高中词汇)
• currency [´kʌrənsi] n.通货；通用；货币 (高中词汇)
• significant [sig´nifikənt] a.重要的；意义重大的 (高中词汇)
• sweden [´swi:dn] n.瑞典 (高中词汇)
• brazil [brə´zil] n.巴西 (高中词汇)
• acceptance [ək´septəns] n.接受；承认 (高中词汇)
• summit [´sʌmit] n.顶(点)；绝顶 (高中词汇)
• massive [´mæsiv] a.厚实的；魁伟的 (高中词汇)
• ireland [´aiələnd] n.爱尔兰 (高中词汇)
• painful [´peinfəl] a.痛(苦)的；费力的 (高中词汇)
• potential [pə´tenʃəl] n.&a.潜在的；可能的 (高中词汇)
• confront [kən´frʌnt] vt.(使)面对；正视 (高中词汇)
• petroleum [pi´trəuliəm] n.石油 (四级词汇)
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• espouse [i´spauz] vt.拥护，支持；娶 (六级词汇)
• deficit [´defisit] n.缺乏，赤字，亏空 (六级词汇)