Physician, heal thyself. Good doctors know that successful long-term treatment depends on targeting the causes rather than the symptoms of a patient's malady.

Federal Reserve policy makers worried about falling consumer prices may want to keep that distinction in mind, especially as they weigh the need for continued near-zero interest rates.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department is expected to report that U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1% in March and are up 2.4% from a year ago, primarily on higher fuel prices. Core prices, which excludeenergy and food to gauge underlying inflationary pressures, are expected to post an annual gain of just 1.3%, the smallest increase since 2004.

Many fear this is just another step on a deflationary journey that could last years. With unemployment still high, Ethan Harris, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, doesn't expect prices to bottom until 2012. 'We're looking at an economy that's dangerously close to deflation,' he cautions. Most Fed policy makers echo that sentiment in keeping interest rates at historic lows.

Yet there is growing concern that this stance is underestimating the recovery's vigor, planting the seeds of future imbalances or even a potentialoutbreak of inflation.

One point to consider: The calculation of shelter costs in the consumer-price index potentially exaggerates deflationary pressures. That is because these costs, which account for 32% of the CPI, place a greater emphasis on rental, rather than homeownership, costs. While home prices have generally flattened, rents have continued to drop. Indeed, excluding these shelter costs, consumer prices in February rose by 3.5% rather than the 2.2% headline figure.

So the Fed's misplaced worry may lead it to once again leave rates too low for too long, a misstep that in the past has caused economic woe. 'The last place inflation shows up in the economy is CPI,' says Joseph Carson, chief economist at Alliance Bernstein.

At least one policy maker, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, seems to agree. 'I am confident that holding rates down at artificially low levels over extended periods encourages bubbles,' he said in a speech last week.

Mr. Hoenig's remedy, unpopular among his Fed colleagues, is to consider raising rates toward 1%. That sounds like the better Rx.

Kelly Evans

• physician [fi´ziʃən] n.(内科)医生 (初中词汇)
• treatment [´tri:tmənt] n.待遇；对待；治疗 (初中词汇)
• distinction [di´stiŋkʃən] n.差别；特征；卓越 (初中词汇)
• wednesday [´wenzdi] n.星期三 (初中词汇)
• energy [´enədʒi] n.活力，精力；能力 (初中词汇)
• annual [´ænjuəl] a.每年的 n.年刊 (初中词汇)
• economy [i´kɔnəmi] n.经济；机制；组织 (初中词汇)
• sentiment [´sentimənt] n.情绪；多愁善感 (初中词汇)
• account [ə´kaunt] vi.说明 vt.认为 n.帐目 (初中词汇)
• alliance [ə´laiəns] n.联盟；同盟 (初中词汇)
• federal [´fedərəl] a.联邦的，联邦制的 (初中词汇)
• consumer [kən´sju:mə] n.消费者；用户 (高中词汇)
• exclude [ik´sklu:d] vt.拒绝；排斥；排除 (高中词汇)
• unemployment [,ʌnim´plɔimənt] n.失业；失业人数 (高中词汇)
• historic [his´tɔrik] a.有历史意义的 (高中词汇)
• potential [pə´tenʃəl] n.&a.潜在的；可能的 (高中词汇)
• outbreak [´autbreik] n.(战争等的)爆发 (高中词汇)
• emphasis [´emfəsis] n.强调；重点 (高中词汇)
• kansas [´kænzəs] n.堪萨斯(州) (高中词汇)
• confident [´kɔnfidənt] a.有信心的，自信的 (高中词汇)
• remedy [´remidi] n.药品 vt.医治；减轻 (高中词汇)
• policy [´pɔlisi] n.政策；权谋；保险单 (四级词汇)
• primarily [´praimərəli, prai´merəli] ad.首先；主要地 (四级词汇)
• economist [i´kɔnəmist] n.经济学家；节俭的人 (四级词汇)
• calculation [,kælkju´leiʃən] n.计算；考虑，预料 (四级词汇)
• headline [´hedlain] n.(报纸的)标题 (四级词汇)
• underlying [,ʌndə´laiiŋ] a.基础的；下层的 (六级词汇)
• dangerously [´deindʒrəsli] ad.危险 (六级词汇)
• holding [´həuldiŋ] n.保持，固定，存储 (六级词汇)
• artificially [,ɑ:ti´fiʃəli] ad.人工地；假地 (六级词汇)
• extended [iks´tendid] a.伸长的；广大的 (六级词汇)
• unpopular [ʌn´pɔpjulə] a.不受欢迎的 (六级词汇)