Crude oil prices have surged this week after fresh U.S. data suggesting economic recovery is taking hold. However, the advance isn't supported by market fundamentals.

在显示经济复苏的美国数据陆续出炉后，原油价格本周大幅走高。不过，油价上涨并没有市场基本面的支撑。

First came the latest employment figures last Friday, which showed U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the largest gain in three years. Then came figures from the U.S. Institute for Supply Management on Monday, revealing the service sector was expanding at its fastest pace for four years.

首先是上周五公布的最新就业数据。该数据显示，三月份美国公司新增162,000个就业岗位，为三年来最大增幅。接着是美国供应管理学会(U.S. Institute for Supply Management)周一公布的数据。该数据显示，服务业开始以四年来最快速度扩张。

In response, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate, the two main oil-futures contracts, breached $86 a barrel Monday, the highest level since October 2008.

两大主要石油期货合约──布伦特和西得克萨斯中质油──均对此作出反应，周一涨至每桶86美元上方，为2008年10月份以来的最高水平。

The 17-month high has little significance in itself, particularly since these prices were last seen during a slump. Crude oil prices were in free-fall at the time after hitting record highs above $147 a barrel three months earlier in July 2008. But at $86 today, crude prices have moved above a recent trading range, which could signal a speculator-led bull charge.

油价创下17个月来的高点，这本身并没有什么重大意义，特别是考虑到上一次看到这样的价格水平是在低迷时期。2008年七月份，原油价格触及每桶147美元上方这一纪录高点，三个月后油价直线下跌。不过，油价目前为每桶86美元，位于最近交易区间以上，这可能意味着投机者主导的涨势。

'Crude oil appears to have broken out of the $75-$85 a barrel band [and], above here, the sky's the limit,' said U.S. analyst Stephen Schork, author of the Schork Report.

美国分析人士、能源市场每日分析报告《Schork Report》的作者施洛克(Stephen Schork)说，原油看起来已经打破了每桶75美元至85美元的区间，再往后，油价的上限就没边了。

Demand is also increasing in non-OECD countries, particularly China. The country's oil imports rose sharply in February to 18.51 million metric tons, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. February volumes were equivalent to 4.85 million barrels a day, up 20% from the 4.05 million barrels a day imported by China in January.

非经济合作与发展组织(OECD)成员国的需求也在增长，特别是中国。据中国海关总署的数据，二月份中国石油进口量大幅增长至1,851万吨。二月份的进口量相当于每日485万桶，较一月份每日405万桶的进口量增加了20%。

But oil price rises should still be limited by fundamentals. In particular, there is plenty of supply to meet demand.

U.S. stockpiles of crude oil climbed by 2.93 million barrels to 354.2 million last week, leaving supplies 6.5% above the five-year average, according to the Department of Energy. Gasoline stocks were also 3.9% higher than a year earlier.

不过，油价的上涨应该依然受到基本面的限制。特别是考虑到有充足的供应来满足需求。

据美国能源部的数据，上周美国原油储备增加293万桶，至3.542亿桶，导致供应比五年平均水平高出6.5%。汽油储备也较去年同期增长了3.9%。

Meanwhile, OPEC has in excess of 6 million barrels a day of spare capacity, the organization's secretary general said last month.

石油输出国组织(OPEC，又称欧佩克)秘书长上个月说，该组织有每日600万桶的闲置产能。

Despite this oversupply, I'm not sure prices are unsustainable over the short term. Funds will make up their own minds and push up the price despite the fundamentals. They have a habit of making their own trends.

尽管存在这样供过于求的情况，我仍不确定短期内油价是否就是难以维持的。基金将作出自己的决定，推高油价，而不管基本面情况如何。它们有着创造自己走势的习惯。

But, certainly, there is plenty of supply in the system so prices should retrench back to the $75 to $85 range.

不过，当然，石油系统中有着充足的供应，因此油价应该回归到每桶75美元至85美元的区间。

Patrick Gourlay

• employment [im´plɔimənt] n.工作；职业；雇用 (初中词汇)
• institute [´institju:t] n.学院 vt.建立；设置 (初中词汇)
• management [´mænidʒmənt] n.管理；处理；经营 (初中词汇)
• barrel [´bærəl] n.(琵琶)桶；圆筒 (初中词汇)
• sharply [´ʃɑ:pli] ad.锋利地；剧烈地 (初中词汇)
• administration [əd,minis´treiʃən] n.管理(事务等)；经营 (初中词汇)
• energy [´enədʒi] n.活力，精力；能力 (初中词汇)
• excess [´ekses] n.超过 a.过分的 (初中词汇)
• capacity [kə´pæsiti] n.容量；智能；能力 (初中词汇)
• despite [di´spait] prep.尽管 (初中词汇)
• system [´sistəm] n.系统，体系，制度 (初中词汇)
• recovery [ri´kʌvəri] n.重获；获得；恢复 (高中词汇)
• response [ri´spɔns] n.回答；响应 (高中词汇)
• significance [sig´nifikəns] n.意义；重要性 (高中词汇)
• equivalent [i´kwivələnt] a.相等的 n.同等物 (高中词汇)
• limited [´limitid] a.有限(制)的 (高中词汇)
• gasoline [´gæsəli:n] n.汽油 (高中词汇)
• taking [´teikiŋ] a.迷人的 n.捕获物 (六级词汇)
• intermediate [,intə´mi:diət] a.中间的 (六级词汇)