Dear Economist,
My wife knows that my conference-going activities enable me to carry on a long-standing affair. Now she has the opportunity to exact her revenge: I am continuing the dalliance at a conference abroad, but my wife says she plans to bring some girlfriends to holiday in the same place. It would be a catastrophe if she were to make a scene by introducing them to my mistress, which is clearly her intention. I cannot hide. My mistress will demand to be taken out, and there are only one and a half decent restaurants in the town. Can you assist?
Yours sincerely,
"Mr Smith", London
Dear "Mr Smith",
Textbook farce and textbook game theory - how delightful! Clearly, you cannot make a predictable dinner booking, otherwise your wife will certainly catch and humiliate you. At the same time, her own arrangements must also be unpredictable if she wishes to outsmart you.
If both restaurants are equally good, game theory suggests a simple strategy: you should choose at random, and so will your wife. As long as you are unpredictable, she will not wish to change her strategy, and vice-versa.
You hint that one restaurant is mediocre, but your strategy should not shift: toss a coin to choose where to go. Space does not permit me to share the relevant algebra, but be assured that your wife will be more likely to await you at the restaurant you prefer, which is why you might as well choose at random.
Most likely you will either be caught or endure a terrible meal. Your wife has arranged a game of strategy that you will probably lose. Perhaps it is time for the end of the affair?
亲爱的经济学家：
我妻子知道，我利用经常外出开会的机会，长期维系着一段婚外情。现在她有机会报复了：我目前在国外开会，并且和情人在一起，但我妻子说她打算带一些女友到同一地点来度假。如果我和情人被她和她的朋友撞见，那将是一场灾难，而这显然就是她的用意所在。我无处可躲。我的情人可能会要我带她出去吃饭，而城区的高档餐厅只有一家，另外一家还算过得去。你能帮我吗？
你真诚的，
"史密斯先生"，来自伦敦
亲爱的"史密斯先生"：
经典的闹剧，经典的博弈论--多有趣啊！显而易见，你不能作出一个可被预知的晚餐订座决定，否则，你妻子一定会把你逮个正着，然后大肆羞辱你一番。与此同时，如果她想做得比你精明，那么，她自己的安排也必须是不可预知的。
如果两家餐厅同样好，博弈论中有一条简单的策略：你应进行随机选择，同时你妻子也将如此。只要你的决定是不可预知的，那她将不会改变她的策略；反之亦然。
你暗示说，其中一家餐厅比较普通，但你不应因此改变你的策略：用抛硬币的方法来选择去哪里。由于版面有限，我不能给出相关的数学解释，但可以确定的是，你妻子更有可能在你喜欢的那家餐厅等你。这就是你最好进行随机选择的原因。
最有可能发生的是，你要么被逮个正着，要么忍受糟糕的餐饮。你妻子已经安排了一场策略博弈，而你有可能就是输家。或许，你该结束这段婚外情了？
关键字:双语阅读
生词表:
My wife knows that my conference-going activities enable me to carry on a long-standing affair. Now she has the opportunity to exact her revenge: I am continuing the dalliance at a conference abroad, but my wife says she plans to bring some girlfriends to holiday in the same place. It would be a catastrophe if she were to make a scene by introducing them to my mistress, which is clearly her intention. I cannot hide. My mistress will demand to be taken out, and there are only one and a half decent restaurants in the town. Can you assist?
Yours sincerely,
"Mr Smith", London
Dear "Mr Smith",
Textbook farce and textbook game theory - how delightful! Clearly, you cannot make a predictable dinner booking, otherwise your wife will certainly catch and humiliate you. At the same time, her own arrangements must also be unpredictable if she wishes to outsmart you.
If both restaurants are equally good, game theory suggests a simple strategy: you should choose at random, and so will your wife. As long as you are unpredictable, she will not wish to change her strategy, and vice-versa.
You hint that one restaurant is mediocre, but your strategy should not shift: toss a coin to choose where to go. Space does not permit me to share the relevant algebra, but be assured that your wife will be more likely to await you at the restaurant you prefer, which is why you might as well choose at random.
Most likely you will either be caught or endure a terrible meal. Your wife has arranged a game of strategy that you will probably lose. Perhaps it is time for the end of the affair?
亲爱的经济学家：
我妻子知道，我利用经常外出开会的机会，长期维系着一段婚外情。现在她有机会报复了：我目前在国外开会，并且和情人在一起，但我妻子说她打算带一些女友到同一地点来度假。如果我和情人被她和她的朋友撞见，那将是一场灾难，而这显然就是她的用意所在。我无处可躲。我的情人可能会要我带她出去吃饭，而城区的高档餐厅只有一家，另外一家还算过得去。你能帮我吗？
你真诚的，
"史密斯先生"，来自伦敦
亲爱的"史密斯先生"：
经典的闹剧，经典的博弈论--多有趣啊！显而易见，你不能作出一个可被预知的晚餐订座决定，否则，你妻子一定会把你逮个正着，然后大肆羞辱你一番。与此同时，如果她想做得比你精明，那么，她自己的安排也必须是不可预知的。
如果两家餐厅同样好，博弈论中有一条简单的策略：你应进行随机选择，同时你妻子也将如此。只要你的决定是不可预知的，那她将不会改变她的策略；反之亦然。
你暗示说，其中一家餐厅比较普通，但你不应因此改变你的策略：用抛硬币的方法来选择去哪里。由于版面有限，我不能给出相关的数学解释，但可以确定的是，你妻子更有可能在你喜欢的那家餐厅等你。这就是你最好进行随机选择的原因。
最有可能发生的是，你要么被逮个正着，要么忍受糟糕的餐饮。你妻子已经安排了一场策略博弈，而你有可能就是输家。或许，你该结束这段婚外情了？
关键字:双语阅读
生词表:
- catastrophe [kə´tæstrəfi]
n.大灾难；(悲剧)结局 四级词汇 - humiliate [hju:´milieit] vt.使蒙羞，屈辱 四级词汇
- strategy [´strætidʒi] n.兵法；战略 六级词汇
- assured [ə´ʃuəd] a.确实的 n.被保险人 六级词汇
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