so since i was here last in six we discovered that global climate change is turning out to be a pretty serious issue so we covered that
another update you will recall i introduced you guys to the quadro tracker it's like a water dowsing device it's just a hollow piece of plastic with an antenna that swivels around and you walk around
and it points to things like if you're looking for marijuana in students lockers it'll point right to somebody oh sorry
for forty thousand dollars apiece it's just like this one completely worthless in which it allegedly worked by electrostatic magnetic ion attraction
which translates to pseudoscientific baloney would be the nice word in which you string together a bunch of words that sound good but it does absolutely nothing in this case
at trespass points allowing people to go through because your little tracker device said they were okay actually cost lives so there is a danger to pseudoscience in believing in this sort of thing
so like fox mulder on x files who wants to believe in ufos well we all do and the reason for that is because we have a belief engine in our brains essentially
we are pattern seeking primates we connect the dots a is connected to b b is connected to c and sometimes a really is connected to b and that's called association learning we find patterns we make those connections whether it's pavlov 's dog here
in fact what skinner discovered is that if you put a pigeon in a box like this and he has to press one of these two keys and he tries to figure out what the pattern is and you give him a little reward
they will figure out any kind of pattern and whatever they were doing just before they got the reward they repeat that particular pattern sometimes it was even spinning around twice counterclockwise once clockwise
the key twice and that's called superstition and that i'm afraid we will always have with us
i call this process patternicity that is the tendency to find meaningful patterns in both meaningful and meaningless noise when we do this process we make two types of errors a type i error or false positive
is believing a pattern is real when it's not our second type of error is a false negative a type ii error
not believing a pattern is real when it is so let 's do a thought experiment you are a hominid three million years ago walking on the plains of africa
your next decision could be the most important one of your life well if you
is a dangerous predator and it turns out it's just the wind you've made an error in cognition made a type i error false positive but no harm you just move away you're more cautious you're more vigilant
now the problem here is that patternicities will occur whenever the cost of making a type i error is less than the cost of making a type ii error this is the only equation in the talk by the way
we have a pattern detection problem that is assessing the difference between a type one and a type two error is highly problematic especially in split second
life and death situations so the default position is just believe all patterns are real all rustles in the grass are dangerous predators and not just the wind
it's a horse head that's right it looks like a horse it must be a horse that's a pattern and is it really a horse or is it more like a frog
see our pattern detection device which appears to be located in the anterior cingulate cortex it's our little detection device there
can be easily fooled and this is the problem for example what do you see here yes of course it's a cow once i prime the brain it's called cognitive priming once i prime the brain to see it
it pops back out again even without the pattern that i've imposed on it and what do you see here
some people see a dalmatian dog yes there it is and there's the prime so when i go back without the prime your brain already has the model so you can see it again
u t austin on corporate environments and whether feelings of uncertainty and out of control makes people see illusory patterns
that is almost everybody sees the planetsaturn people that are put in a condition of feeling out of control are more likely to see something in this which is allegedly patternless
in other words the propensity to find these patterns goes up when there's a lack of control for example baseball players are notoriously superstitious when they're batting
but not so much when they're fielding because fielders are successful ninety to ninety five percent of the time the best batters fail seven out of ten times
so their superstitions their patternicities are all associated with feelings of lack of control and so forth
you show subjects the fish is degraded twenty percent fifty percent and then the one i showed you seventy percent a similar experiment was done by another psychologist named peter brugger
more meaningful patterns were perceived on the right hemisphere via the left visual field than the left hemisphere
so if you present subjects the images such that it's going to end up on the right hemisphere instead of the left then they're more likely to see patterns than if you put it on the
left hemisphere our right hemisphere appears to be where a lot of this patternicity occurs so what we're trying to do is bore into the brain to see where all this happens
and his colleague christine mohr gave subjects l dopa l dopa 's a drug as you know given for treating parkinson 's disease which is related to a
these are patternicities they're incorrect patterns they're false positives they're type one errors and if you give them drugs that
patterns like that decreases on the other hand amphetamines like cocaine are dopamine agonists they increase the amount of dopamine so you're more likely to
now so perhaps more dopamine is related to more creativity dopamine i think changes our signal to noise ratio that is
how accurate we are in finding patterns if it's too low you're more likely to make too many type two errors you miss the real patterns you don't want to be too skeptical if
the really interesting good ideas just right you're creative and yet you don't fall for too much baloney
maybe you see patterns everywhere every time somebody looks at you you think people are staring at you you think people are talking about you and if you go too far on that that's just simply labeled as madness
so the signal to noise ratio then presents us with a pattern detection problem and of course you all know exactly what this is right and what pattern do you see here
pretty sexy feet i must say maybe a little photoshopped and of course the ambiguous figures that seem to flip flop back and forth it turns out what you're thinking about a lot influences what you
tend to see and you see the lamp here i know because the lights on here
of course thanks to the environmentalist movement we're all sensitive to the plight of marine mammals so what you see in this
a dolphin tail there guys
if we can give you conflicting data again your acc is going to be going into hyperdrive if you look down here it's fine if you look up here then you get conflicting data and then we have to flip the image for you to see that it's a set up
like that well here 's the late great jerry andrus impossible crate illusion in three d in which jerry is standing inside
the impossible crate and he was kind enough to post this and give us the reveal of course camera angle is everything the photographer is over there
and this board appears to overlap with this one and this one with that one and so on but even when i take it away the illusion is so powerful because of how are brains are wired to find those certain kinds of patterns
this is a fairly new one that throws us off because of the conflicting patterns of comparing this angle with that angle in fact it the exact same picture side by side
so what you're doing is comparing that angle instead of with this one but that one and so your brain is fooled yet again your pattern detection devices are fooled
faces are easy to see because we have an additional evolved facialrecognition software in our temporal lobes here 's some faces on the side of a rock
not even sure if this is this might be photoshopped but anyway the point is still made now which one of these looks odd to you in a quick reaction which one looks
the one on the left okay so i'll rotate it so it'll be the one on the right and you are correct
now i said back in our little thought experiment you're a hominid walking on the plains of africa is it just the wind or a dangerous predator what's the difference between those
well the wind is inanimate the dangerous predator is an intentional agent and i call this process agenticity that is the tendency to infuse patterns with meaning intention and agency often invisible beings from the top down
this is an idea that we got from a fellow tedster here dan dennett who talked about taking the intentional stance so it's a type of that expanded to explain i think a lot of different things souls spirits ghosts gods demons angels aliens intelligent designers
and polythiesm and monotheism it's the belief that aliens are somehow more advanced than us more moral than us and the narrative 's always are that they're coming here to save us and rescue us
from on high the intelligentdesigner 's always portrayed as this super intelligent moral being that comes down to design life even the idea that government can rescue us
there's people there on any given day like when i went there here showing me where the different shooters were my favorite one was he was in the manhole and he popped out at the last second took that
whole other lecture but you know how we know that nine eleven was not orchestrated by the bush administration because it worked
so we are natural born dualists our agenticity process comes from the fact that we can enjoy movies like these because we can imagine in essence continuing on
we know that if you stimulate the temporal lobe you can produce a feeling of out of body experiences near death experiences which you can do by just touching an electrode to the temporal lobe there
or you can do it by loss of consciousness by accelerating in a centrifuge you get a hypoxia or a lower oxygen and the brain then senses that there's an out of body experience
you can use which i did went out and did michael persinger 's god helmet that bombards your temporal lobes with electromagnetic waves and you get a sense of out of body experience
i'm going to end here with a short video clip that sort of brings all this together it's just a minute and a half it ties together all this into the power of expectation and the power of belief go ahead and roll it
they chose for their fake auditions for
we're hoping we can use part of this
and this is test on some lip balms that we have over here and these are our models who are going to help us
a leading brand would you have any problem kissing our models
you very much thank you
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