有一天,当我突然意识到人生变得毫无意义时,自己正以四仰八叉的姿势在看电视。或者也可能是因为电视上在播美国真人秀节目"购房人"(House Hunters)。我自己也说不清,于是转台到"波基普西贵妇的真实生活"(The Real Housewives of Poughkeepsie)(凯西发现了千层面的免煮食谱后,好像天都塌了。)但我仍无法摆脱那种无聊感。
I was splayed out in front of the tube the other day when I realized, with a start, that my life had lost all meaning. Or maybe it was just that 'House Hunters' was on.
然后,灵光乍现一般,我知道是哪里不对劲了。电视上的一切都太平淡了。
I couldn't tell. So I flipped to 'The Real Housewives of Poughkeepsie.' ('All hell breaks looks when Kathy discovers a no-boil
recipe for lasagna.') Yet I still couldn't shake my ennui.
我家有一台买了四年之久的42寸平板电视,很招摇地挂在披风上方。但据拉斯维加斯本周举办的消费电子展(Consumer Electronics Show)传出的消息,平板已经过时了。
Then, like
divine intervention, I realized what was wrong. Everything on TV was just too flat.
据参加这届消费电子展的商家称,最新最伟大的电视是曲面的,屏幕从左到右呈现的是一个凹面,像是在滑板爱好者的U型场地上看电视。电视制造商说,曲面屏幕在某种程度上会提供更好的画质。
I've got a four-year-old, 42-inch flat-screen TV that hangs ostentatiously above the mantle. But, according to the news from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this week, flat is out.
电视机目前被困在了创新死胡同里。电视机硬件方面没有什么值得关注的新思路,而拜竞争和生产效率所赐,好电视机的价格继续越来越便宜,生产商变得越来越绝望,于是在电视机里塞满了越来越多没用的东西。
Instead, according to the hucksters at CES, the latest and greatest TVs are curved,
offering viewers a left-to-right concavity, like watching TV on a skateboarder's half-pipe. And, somehow, curved screens make TV better, TV makers say.
从3D到4K,到曲面显示屏再到索尼(Sony)奇怪的楔形电视机(别问为什么),我们看到的是一个江郎才尽的行业,在黑暗中摸索着什么——任何可能让我们愿意掏腰包的东西。
TV is stuck in an
innovation cul-de-sac. There are no new ideas in TV
hardware that are worth paying for, so, thanks to
competition and production efficiencies, good TVs keep getting cheaper. The cheaper they get, the more
desperate TV makers become, filling their sets with more and more
useless piffle.
电视机创新之所以还没走到末路,是因为电视机太完美了。恰恰相反。要翻到自己想看的节目、不用几个遥控器直接流播放影视剧、或操作有线电视的复杂菜单,这些到现在仍是个麻烦事。
From 3D to 4K to curved screens to Sony's strange 'wedge-shaped' sets (don't ask), we are witnessing an industry out of ideas, casting about in the dark for something -- anything -- that might
persuade us to part with our money.
但电视机制造商却无法解决任何一个上述真实存在的问题。它们并无可与娱乐公司签订重大协议的影响力。要想解决不得不订阅很多服务才能看到自己希望看的所有电视节目这个问题,电视机制造商与娱乐公司就很有签署协议的必要。它们不能改变有线系统与电视频道绑定的方式。如能改变,你每月的有线电视费可能会更轻松地降下来。
The death of
innovation in TV hasn't come about because TVs are perfect. Far from it. It remains a big hassle to find something you want to watch, or to
stream TV shows and movies without consulting a
handful of remotes, or to navigate your cable system's byzantine menus.
跟所有其它制造商一样,电视机制造商不能让所有与电视相连的设备都服从一个单一、友好的屏幕界面,而这样一个界面才是从根本上解决电视问题的最佳办法。(推出了游戏机Xbox One的微软(Microsoft)可谓是最接近此道的,但这需要对语音识别和动作跟踪等新技术进行巨额投资,而利润微薄的电视机制造商可能负担不起这笔投资。)
But TV makers aren't in a position to address any of these real problems. They don't have the clout to make
significant deals with
entertainment companies, which would be necessary to fix the problem of having to
subscribe to many services in order to watch everything that you would like. They can't alter the way cable systems
bundle channels, which might make it easier to cut your
monthly bill.
电视机制造商没有解决电视机真正的不足之处,却试图增加额外功能来提高利润。过去几年被大力推销的3D电视就是很好的例子(实际上2010年被一些人宣传为"3D电视年")。
And TV makers, like
everyone else, can't make all the devices connected to your TV obey a single, friendly on-screen interface -- which would, ultimately, be the best way to crack the problem of
annoying living-room tech. (Microsoft has
gotten closest to doing this with its Xbox One, but it required a hefty
investment in new technologies like speech-recognition and motion-tracking that TV makers likely can't afford on their razor-thin margins.)
那么3D电视究竟有何优势呢?找不出来。3D电视观看不便(需要带上特殊眼镜)、不舒服(一些人会感到头疼),也不那么有趣(3D片源并不是很多)。
In the
absence of solving what really ails TV, manufacturers add on extras meant to
fatten their profits. Take 3D, a feature that has been marketed with messianic zeal for the past few years (2010, if you didn't know, was
actually billed by some as the Year of 3D TV.)
今年3D电视已经在消费电子展(CES)上销声匿迹了。电视机制造商Vizio已经完全抛弃了3D特性,其他厂商也没有大谈特谈3D电视。
Where did that go? Nowhere. 3D was
awkward (those glasses),
uncomfortable (some people got headaches), and not really very interesting (there weren't many 3D shows to watch.)
虽然3D电视的失败并不一定意味着未来新型电视也会遭此命运,但显然也不是什么好兆头。今年的新热潮是超高清电视,也被称作4K电视,这种电视的卖点是超高分辨率屏幕。不过,值得怀疑的是消费者用得着那么高的分辨率吗?尤其是在一个大房间里隔着那么远的距离看电视。对于有点老花眼的我来说,今天的高清电视已经非常好了,为何还要多花钱?
This year 3D is all but dead at CES; one manufacturer, Vizio, has pulled the feature entirely, and others haven't been talking it up.
4K电视也面临与3D电视相同的窘境:除非消费者大量购买4K电视,否则娱乐公司不会有太多热情来制作4K电视节目。这样一来,电视节目选择匮乏,消费者也就没有了购买4K电视的理由。
The
failure of 3D doesn't
necessarily mean that future TV novelties are doomed, but it sure isn't a good sign. This year, the new craze is ultra high-definition TVs, also called 4K TVs, which sport very high-resolution screens. But I question how much more high def we want our screens to be, especially in a large room from far away. To my aging eyes, today's HD is pretty good, so why pay more?
当然,Netflix曾表示将放送4K版《纸牌屋》(House of Cards),但你的网速需要达到每秒15兆才能流畅观看,这大约是美国平均宽带速度的两倍。待广播电视公司开始播放4K内容时,我才会对4K电视比较乐观。
And 4K is plagued by the same Catch-22 that hobbled 3D: Until people buy a lot of 4K sets,
entertainment companies don't have much
incentive to produce 4K content. But without much content, there's little reason to buy a 4K TV.
综上所述,我给你一条相当可靠的消费建议:正如BuzzFeed的约翰•赫尔曼(John Herrman)最近所写,去买一台便宜的电视吧。电视面板行业的效率已经相当之高,可以生产出价格低廉、视觉效果又相当不错的显示器。就电视机来说,没有什么能比一个好的显示器更重要,像上网之类的附加功能最好还是由Apple TV、谷歌Chromecast、Roku及Xbox和PlayStation等视频游戏系统提供。
Sure, Netflix said it will be streaming 'House of Cards' in 4K, but you'll need an Internet
connectioncapable of 15 megabits per second to get it -- which is about twice as fast as the average American broadband line. I'll be more optimistic when
broadcast networks sign on.
但如果你非常渴望曲面和4K等附加功能呢?最好的选择是等待、等待、再等待。如果4K电视真的会普及,再等几年,你就可以花比现在少的钱买到一个好很多的4K电视。
Add all of this together and you get a pretty solid piece of
consumer advice: Go ahead and buy a cheap TV, as BuzzFeed's John Herrman wrote recently. The TV-panel industry has become so
efficient that it can produce really
good-looking displays at low prices. And you don't need much more than a good display in a TV, since add-ons like Internet streaming are much better provided by set-top boxes like Apple TV, Google Chromecast, Roku and videogame systems like Xbox and PlayStation.
电视机制造商不会喜欢这个建议。但这是残酷的事实,正如个人电脑制造商、或许很快智能手机制造商也要面对的:他们被全球科技生产带来的惊人的超高效率所左右。
What if you really, really want extras like curves and 4K? Your best bet is to wait, wait, wait. If 4K is really going to take off, you'll get a much better TV for less money in a couple of years than you will today.
将来某个时候所有的科技产品都会变便宜。正如电视机一样,当你的设备达到自然创新的终点,也就没有什么可创新的了。
TV makers aren't going to like this advice. But that's tough -- like their cousins, the PC makers, and perhaps soon, smartphone makers as well, they're
hooked to the terrible, hyperscaling efficiencies afforded by global tech production. Nobody can fight these efficiencies. (That's why I'm skeptical we'll ever see an Apple-made TV set.)