时装行业,一步失策的代价将会非常高昂。为了抑制风险,部分零售商开始逐步采用时装潮流预测服务。平均每年付费7,000至15,000美元(约合人民币42,900至92,000元),客户便可获得对于时装潮流的提前预测以及为色彩、面料和剪裁提供思路的数据,这些数据常常被划分为"工业风格"与"水主题"等类别。
In the fashion business, faux pas can be costly. In order to hem back the risk, some retailers are
increasingly turning to trend forecasting.
时装潮流预测公司提供关于时装秀的分析,以及市面上当前相关产品的数据,并为额外付费的客户提供定制的研究与咨询服务。此类数据由受雇搜罗艺术展、各大盛会、餐厅甚至是科技期刊的员工团队编制。
For an average
annual fee of $7,000 to $15,000, customers get
access to forward forecasts of fashion trends and data
offering ideas for colors, fabrics and cuts, often broken into categories like 'industrial' and 'aquatic'.
时装公司利用这些数据来规划它们最新的时装系列或时装秀,设计师和商家往日收到的那种周期性的厚重的时装款式样书则为在线服务所取代。
The forecasting companies offer
analysis of fashion shows, data on the current market offerings and -- for an added fee -- bespoke
research and consultancy services. The data are generated by teams of staff employed to trawl art exhibitions, events, restaurants and even
scientific journals.
英国时装潮流预测公司Worth Global Style Network(简称"WGSN")的首席执行长朱莉·哈里斯(Julie Harris)说:"在过去两年中我们获得了两位数的增长,2013年我们的客户数量增速是三年来最快的。"该公司的3,600名企业订户包括"财富500强"中的每一家时装公司。
Fashion companies use the data to plan their latest
collection or catwalk show, with the online services replacing the bulky and intermittent style books that designers and merchandisers used to receive.
WGSN为Top Right集团的子公司,它在7月份收购了一个小竞争对手——主营童装市场的Mudpie公司——的在线业务,收购金额未向外界透露。Mudpie的实体时装款式样书业务未被WGSN收购,现已被清算。
'We have seen double digit growth over the last two years and in 2013 we are
seeing the highest increase in
customer growth for three years,' says Julie Harris, chief
executive of Worth Global Style Network, a U.K.-based forecaster that counts every Fortune 500
apparel brand among its 3,600 corporate subscribers.
WGSN还将于10月发布一款专门针对比较购物的零售分析工具,企业常使用比较购物来调查竞争情况及衡量市场对同类产品的需求。
WGSN, which is part of the Top Right Group, in July bought the online division of Mudpie, a smaller rival that operates
mainly in the children's market, for an undisclosed sum. The
physical stylebook service that WGSN didn't snap up has now been liquidated.
玛莎百货(Marks&Spencer)创意总监贝琳达·厄尔(Belinda Earl)说:"(潮流预测服务)一直都有人用,只是科技让它现在更方便被大家使用罢了。它们非常重要,但它并非总是起引领作用,而更是重新评估,帮助你确定你正走在正轨上。"
The company will also
launch a
retail analytics tool in the next month targeted specifically at
comparison shopping, a service companies use to check up on the
competition and gauge demand for similar products.
J Sainsbury旗下服装品牌Tu的女装总监安娜·克拉克(Anna Clarke)说:"我们利用(潮流预测服务)来支持、验证并使我们自信我们跟上了潮流。"
'[Fashion forecasters] have always been used but they're more
accessible now because of the technology,' says Marks & Spencer
creativedirector Belinda Earl, who has just launched her first
collection for the U.K. high street bellwether. 'They are important, not always to lead but to re-evaluate and help
confirm you're on the right track.'
美国时装潮流预测机构Stylesight的创始人兼首席执行长弗兰克·博伯(Frank Bober)称:"我们不能消除风险,但我们能减轻风险。"
'We use [trend forecasters] to support, validate and give us confidence we're on the same page,' said Anna Clarke, head of womenswear for J Sainsbury's Tu clothing range.
Stylesight现有3,000名不同的企业订户,客户数量在过去四年间增长了40%。
'We can't get rid of risk but we can mitigate risk,' says Frank Bober,
founder and CEO of U.S.-based fashion trend forecaster Stylesight.
潮流预测机构声称他们能帮助客户节约差旅开支,节约可能需要聘用自由摄影师去拍摄时尚达人的费用,以及花在搜罗网络上已有的海量时装数据上的时间。它的另一个好处是能使企业紧跟时尚,这可以促进销量的提高。
Mr. Bober's Stylesight has 3,000 different corporate subscribers, representing 40% growth over the past four years.
美国连锁百货Kohl's Corporation负责时装潮流事务的副总裁索菲娅·瓦克斯曼(Sofia Wacksman)说:"他们(指潮流预测机构)收集信息,并以零售商和制造商的术语将信息整合在一起,接下来我们的工作就是决定什么信息对我们行业是有意义的,我们得再次对它进行筛选。"
Forecasters claim to save their clients travel expenses, the cost of freelancers who might be paid to photograph trendy people, and time spent trawling the vast cache of fashion data that are already
available on the Internet. Then there is the benefit of being on-trend, which can
translate into increased sales.
瓦克斯曼称,虽然该公司严重倚赖潮流预测机构,但也会关注时尚博客和时尚网站,每年还会安排几次去往海外顶尖时尚之都的旅行,并且关注时装秀及搜罗以往的时装潮流。
'They [forecasters] take the information and
package it in a way that speaks the language of the retailers and manufacturers. Then it's our job to decide what makes sense for our business; we have to
filter it again,' says Sofia Wacksman, vice president of trend for Kohl's Corporation.
零售商还借助数据分析机构来增强效果。英国初创企业EDITD在网上进行搜索,收集有关谁在销售什么商品,网店售出多少商品以及它们的售价等数据,以此为企业的销售规划决策提供指导。
She said that while the company relies heavily on forecasters, it also follows blogs and fashion websites, takes several
annualoverseas trips to leading fashion cities, follows the catwalk shows and trawls vintage trends.
EDITD的创始人朱莉娅·福勒(Julia Fowler)与杰夫·沃茨(Geoff Watts)分别为设计师和软件开发工程师。他们认为零售商需要实时数据来决定什么时候将商品上架,什么时候打折,以及什么时候将它们下架以便给新品腾出空位。
Retailers are also turning to number crunchers to improve execution. U.K. start-up EDITD trawls the Internet to gather data on who's selling what, how many products are flying off the virtual
shelves and how much are they going for to guide companies in their merchandising decisions.
EDITD现在有20名员工和一小批客户,该公司预计自己的规模在明年这个时候将是现在的两倍。
Founders Julia Fowler, a designer, and IT developer Geoff Watts believe retailers need real-time data to decide when to put something into their storefront, when to
discount it and when to take it away to make space for new items.
EDITD的图片与信息库频繁生成报告和参考工具,这些工具包括一款比较购物工具和一个监控人们在网上评论什么内容的社交监控分析工具。
With 20 staff and a
handful of clients, the company expects to be twice as big this time next year.
新竞争者也在加入这个市场。印度ITC Limited公司在8月宣布,它将于今年年底发布一个时装潮流分析系统,该系统可搜寻企业自己的历史数据来"分析以往的设计并提取出一直以来都流行的元素,再把这些信息反馈回设计过程中"。ITC Limited是一家从事从烟草到酒店业等各类业务的企业集团,该集团尚未证实此项服务的费用。
EDITD's database of images and information churns out
frequent reports and
reference tools including a comparison-shopping tool and a social
monitorfunction which looks at what people are commenting about online.
许多零售商称,时装潮流预测机构提供的信息已成为它们发掘消费者信息的一个重要部分,比如发掘谁花的钱更少,谁更经常在网上购物,以及谁在越来越紧的时间范围内要求得到最新式的时装。
New entrants are joining the market. ITC Limited, an Indian cigarettes-to-hotels conglomerate, later this year will
launch a fashion analytics
system that mines a company's own
historical data to 'analyze past designs and bring out the aspects that have been popular and feed this information back into the design process,' the company said last month. It has yet to
confirm the cost of the service.
Kohl公司的瓦克斯曼说:"时尚变化得非常之快,像Stylesight或WGSN这样(的企业),它们每天都有更新,若要确定我们拥有正确的信息,它们就非常有用。它们给我们提供了一个了解所有这些信息的行业视角,而且那些信息都是按照图案、色彩和类别划分的,比如毛衣就是针织上衣下的一个类别。"
Many retailers say the information forecasters provide has become an important part of how they tap consumers, who spend less, shop online more and demand the latest outfits in
increasingly tight time frames.
由于消费者要求时装要最入时,同时零售商以迅速变化的时装系列应对此类需求,看起来时装潮流预测服务将继续吸引大量关注。
'Fashion moves so quickly,' Kohl's Sofia Wacksman said. '[Companies] like Stylesight or WGSN, which are updated every day, are really useful in order to make sure we have the right information. They offer us an industry eye on all of the information, broken down by print, color and
classification like sweaters of woven tops.'