急着想要从近期的"手表热"中分一杯羹的投资者们或许该暂停一下,检查一下这种热度是否还是那么高。金融危机以来,随着那些看重品牌的人群寻找买得起的地位标识,来自时尚品牌的手表大受欢迎。Fossil Group成为在这个潮流中受益匪浅的一家企业,该企业经授权销售博柏利(Burberry)、马克·雅可布(Marc Jacobs)和迈克尔·科尔斯(Michael Kors)等品牌的手表。
Investors eager to profit from the recent wristwatch craze should take a moment to check the batteries.
过去几年随着迈克尔·科尔斯公司开设新店和提升品牌印象,该品牌手表的销售对Fossil增长的贡献尤其大。迈克尔·科尔斯是一家单独上市的时尚公司,手袋是其知名产品。虽然该品牌的小提包和成衣的价格能达到数百,甚至数千美元,Fossil生产的该品牌手表售价仅为120美元。
Timepieces adorned with names of fashion designers have surged in
popularity since the
financial crisis, as the brand-conscious crowd looked for affordable
status symbols. One big beneficiary has been Fossil Group, which has licenses to sell watches under labels including Burberry, Marc Jacobs and Michael Kors .
不幸的是,Fossil要想保持这一良好势头可能并不容易。一个问题是一些敏锐的、财务实力雄厚的竞争对手——科技公司正在进入这个市场,他们正在制造所谓的功能类似智能手机的智能手表。
Sales of Michael Kors watches, in particular, have
driven Fossil's growth in the past couple of years as the
separately listed fashion company, known for its handbags, opened new stores and boosted the brand's profile. While Michael Kors purses and ready-to-wear clothing can cost hundreds or thousands of dollars, the Fossil-produced watches cost as little as $120.
三星电子(Samsung Electronics)周三发布了智能手表Galaxy Gear,这款产品有语音和电子邮件功能,还装有社交媒体应用。高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.)也加入到这一市场,宣布将于今年晚些时候发布一款智能手表。此外,市场传言苹果公司(Apple)即将推出一款智能手表,但这家高度保密的公司尚未予以证实。
Unfortunately, it may be tough to keep Fossil ticking. One problem is the
arrival of a new set of nimble, deep-pocketed competitors: technology companies producing
so-called smartwatches with features similar to smartphones.
考虑到苹果和三星在智能手机市场的竞争,他们可能也会积极推广其智能手表产品,以赢得消费者青睐,这进而可能抢去前卫手表获得的关注。未来几个月在消费者计划假日礼品之际,这一点将至关重要。
Samsung Electronics on Wednesday unveiled its Galaxy Gear Smartwatch, which has voice and email features and plugs its owners into social media. Qualcomm also joined the fray, announcing it would
release a smartwatch later this year. And there are rumors Apple has a watch on the way, though the ultra-secretive company hasn't confirmed that.
传统手表领域的竞争也在升温。Fossil的竞争对手摩凡陀(Movado)在8月底表示,该公司计划扩大价格范围。该公司拥有销售蔻驰(Coach)品牌手表的授权。目前蔻驰手表价格相对更贵,但似乎将会与迈克尔·科尔斯手表有更直接的竞争。
Given the
rivalry between Apple and Samsung in the smartphone market, they will probably market smartwatches aggressively to win over consumers, likely diverting attention from fashion-forward timepieces. That will be
critical in the next few months as consumers plan gifts for the holidays.
迈克尔·科尔斯手表销售可能已经开始丧失动力。在7月份当季,Fossil在美国批发渠道的销售额强劲增长11%。但Fossil同店销售额与上年同期持平,20个季度以来首次未实现增长。如果其他出售迈克尔·科尔斯手表的零售商销售额也持平,那么第三季度就会出现严重的库存积压问题。
Traditional
competition is also heating up. Rival Movado, which has the license to sell Coach -branded watches, said in late August it plans to
expand its range of price points. At the moment, Coach watches tend to be more expensive, but it appears there will be more direct
competition with Michael Kors.
可以看到在Fossil商店以外该品牌手表销售确实放缓。迈克尔·科尔斯手表主要销售商Macy's在8月中旬说,7月份当季手表销售表现疲软。这是几个季度以来Macy's首次未将手表列入表现强劲的商品类别中。
Michael Kors watches may already be losing steam. In the July quarter, Fossil's sales in the U.S.
wholesalechannel rose a solid 11%. But sales at Fossil stores open at least at year were flat from a year earlier, the first time in 20 quarters they didn't rise. If sales were flat at other retailers that sell Michael Kors watches, there would be a serious inventory buildup going into the third quarter.
这种状况可能会令投资者感到意外。Fossil股价今年以来已累计上涨25%,比历史高点低不到20%。该股的预期市盈率为17倍,说明市场预计该公司会继续实现增长。
Indeed, the sales slowdown is
visible outside Fossil stores. Macy's, a major
seller of Michael Kors timepieces, said in mid-August that watches were weak in the quarter through July. That was the first time in several quarters that Macy's didn't single out watches as a
category of strength.
在竞争压力加剧之际,Fossil股价走势面临逆转风险。
Investors may be taken by surprise. Shares of Fossil have risen 25% this year and are within 20% of their all-time high. The stock also trades at 17 times forward consensus earnings, suggesting hopes for continued growth.