投资领域,最容易被低估的一项德行就是勇气。3月份以及8月份提交美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)的文件都显示出芒格(Charlie Munger)的非凡魄力。他是巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的业务合伙人,也是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的副董事长。
One of the least appreciated virtues in investing is courage.
芒格即将于明年1月1日踏入90岁高龄。对于想知道如何才有可能在所投资的领域打败专业投资者的散户投资者来说,芒格是他们的榜样。专业投资者获得的信息比你多,他们的交易设备也更快。但你仍有机会打败他们,前提是你用自己的、更理性的交易规则换一种不同的玩法。
Filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission in March and again this month show the
extraordinary gumption of Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's business
partner and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
你能耐心等待,而专业投资者不能这样。你不必跟随大流,而他们需要这样做。最重要的是,你能做出大胆的决定,而他们大多数从未这样做过。
Mr. Munger, who will turn 90 years old next Jan. 1, is a model for individual investors who wonder how they can possibly beat the professionals at their own game. The pros have more information than you, and their trading machines are faster. But you still have an edge over them -- so long as you play a different game by your own, more
sensible rules.
芒格为何能成为散户投资者的榜样?
You can be patient; the pros can't. You don't have to be part of the herd; they do. Above all, you can be brave; they almost never are.
在2009年第一季度,也就是金融危机最严重的时期,芒格将他执掌的小型出版企业Daily Journal的71%的现金投资于银行类股,而此时许多其他投资者正纷纷撤出这一领域。到2009年3月31日,他的押注已经获得了60%的回报。据Daily Journal 8月20日提交的财务报告显示,算上他在后来进行的其他投资,芒格斥资4,970万美元投资的股票和债券如今价值已经达到1.284亿美元。
What makes Mr. Munger a model for individual investors?
芒格的助手说,他在过去这一周不在办公室办公,无法发表评论。
In the first quarter of 2009, during the most
desperate days of the
financial crisis, Mr. Munger took 71% of the cash at Daily Journal, a small publishing company he chairs, and poured it into the bank stocks that so many other investors were fleeing. By March 31, 2009, his bet already had gained 60%. With other purchases he made later, Mr. Munger invested $49.7 million into stocks and bonds that today are worth $128.4 million, according to
financial statements Daily Journal filed on Aug. 20.
在Daily Journal 2月份年度大会上,芒格简略讨论了上述操作。据网上的实录和出席此次会议的洛杉矶Rubalcava Capital Management的鲁瓦尔卡瓦(Alexander Rubalcava)提供的信息,芒格说,当股价"低到荒谬的程度"时,我们大胆将现金入市,我们的举措相当明智。
Mr. Munger was out of the office this past week and unreachable for comment, said his assistant.
Daily Journal的这笔投资并不是芒格在危机期间做出的唯一一个大胆举措。
At Daily Journal's
annual meeting in February, Mr. Munger discussed the move briefly. According to an online transcript and an attendee, Alexander Rubalcava of Los Angeles-based Rubalcava Capital Management, Mr. Munger said 'we behaved pretty sensibly' by moving
boldly out of cash when stock prices got 'ridiculously low.'
在Good Samaritan Hospital(芒格是这家洛杉矶医疗中心的董事会主席),长期以来捐款一直被投资于现金和短期债券,直至企业债在金融危机期间受到沉重打击。
The Daily Journal
investment wasn't the only bold move Mr. Munger made during the crisis.
据两位知情人士透露,在危机期间,芒格将这家医疗中心的大多数资金投入了企业债券。
At Good Samaritan Hospital, a Los Angeles
medical center whose board Mr. Munger leads, the
endowment had long been invested in cash and short-term debt -- until corporate bonds got hammered during the
financial crisis.
Good Samaritan发言人未回复记者寻求置评的请求,但其财务报告显示,在截至2009年9月1日的一年中其捐款获得了超过1,200万美元的收益和未实现利得,回报率大约为20%,而同一时期内,现金的收益率为0.5%,整体债券市场的回报率不到8%。
At that point, Mr. Munger plunked most of the money into corporate bonds, according to two people familiar with the matter.
芒格的魄力从何而来呢?
A Good Samaritan spokeswoman didn't return a request for comment, but the hospital's
financial statements show that its
endowment earned more than $12 million in
income and unrealized gains in the year
ending Sept. 1, 2009 --
roughly a 20% return over a period when cash earned 0.5% and the overall bond market returned less than 8%.
他曾在接受一份杂志采访时回忆说,上世纪80年代末,一位客人在一次宴会上问他:能告诉我,在你取得巨大成功的背后,有哪项品质最重要吗?
Where does Mr. Munger get his gumption?
芒格回答说:我很理性;这就是答案——我很理性。
In the late 1980s, he recalled in a magazine interview, a guest at a dinner party asked him, 'Tell me, what one quality accounts for your
enormous success?'
那些了解芒格的人说,他曾在加州理工学院(California Institute of Technology)接受气象学训练,他思考问题时更多考虑的是概率,而非确定性。早年离婚以及幼子因白血病离世让芒格明白了一个道理,那就是逆境见品质。他在数十年间阅读了大量的历史、科学、传记和心理学书籍,从而令他可以敏锐地发现人们的愚蠢行为。
Mr. Munger's reply: 'I'm rational. That's the answer. I'm rational.'
芒格的老朋友、纽约基金管理公司Davis Advisors的董事长戴维斯(Christopher Davis)说,芒格身上有很重的斯多亚学派(stoicism)的影子;他好像可以反转情绪,在其他人热情满满时表现得漠不关心,而在其他人无所适从或忧心忡忡时又能全力以赴。
Trained as a meteorologist at the California Institute of Technology, Mr. Munger thinks in terms of probabilities rather than certainties, say those who know him well. An early
divorce and the death of his young son from leukemia taught Mr. Munger that
adversity provides an opportunity to show what you are made of. Decades of voracious
reading in history, science,
biography and
psychology have made him an acute diagnostician of human folly.
芒格倾向于坐等投资机会,无论投资界都在做什么,直到好的投资机会最终出现。
'Charlie has such a deep sense of stoicism,' says a longtime friend, Christopher Davis, chairman of New York-based fund
manager Davis Advisors. 'He seems to be able to
invert emotions, becoming uninterested when other people are euphoric and then deeply engaged when others are
uncertain or fearful.'
出现恐慌时通常都会带来这样的机会。每当这时,芒格都会深思熟虑,如果他认定他所看到的机会,他就会出手。
Mr. Munger favors what he calls 'sitting on your a--,'
regardless of what the investing crowd is doing, until a good
investment finally materializes.
芒格的朋友、Oaktree Capital Management驻洛杉矶的负责人弗兰克(John Frank)说,芒格很清楚他自己的想法,即便其他人不认同,他也不会受到影响;他不会把情感和理性认知混为一谈。
In the panic that typically produces such an opportunity, Mr. Munger ruminates. If he likes what he sees, he pounces.
许多投资经理每天都在不断地开会,查阅电子邮件,盯着股票报价,收看财经频道的节目,他们都痴迷于战胜市场。负责编辑决策类博客Farnam Street的投资经理帕里什(Shane Parrish)说,芒格和
巴菲特则不同,他们坐在安静的房间里阅读和思考,通过电话与其他人交谈。
'Charlie knows exactly what he thinks, and the fact that other people don't agree has no
impact on him,' says his friend John Frank, managing
principal at Oaktree Capital Management in Los Angeles. 'He doesn't get confused about the difference between an
emotional feeling and an
intellectual understanding.'
他补充说,通过有条不紊地安排生活来排除令人分心的因素并减少做决策的次数,芒格和
巴菲特更有可能做出更好的决定。
Many money managers spend their days in meetings, riffling through emails, staring at stock-quote machines with
financial television flickering in the background, while they obsess about
beating the market. Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett, on the other hand, 'sit in a quiet room and read and think and talk to people on the phone,' says Shane Parrish, a money
manager who edits Farnam Street, a compelling blog about decision making.
芒格和Daily Journal都没有透露他们在危机期间买进了那些股票,但投资网站ValueWalk的沃林斯基(Jacob Wolinsky)认为,他们增持的最大头寸是富国银行(Wells Fargo),其次是美国合众银行(U.S. Bancorp)。
'By organizing their lives to tune out distractions and make fewer decisions,' he adds, Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett 'have tilted their odds toward making better decisions.'
巴菲特未予置评,只是说,芒格确实很理性。
Mr. Munger and Daily Journal haven't disclosed which stocks he bought during the crisis, but Jacob Wolinsky of ValueWalk, an investing website, believes the largest position was in Wells Fargo, followed by U.S. Bancorp.