狮子与狗能混淆吗?在中国的漯河,答案是一个坚定的"不"字。前不久当地动物园的游客们在标记为狮子的笼子里看到一只藏 ,他们对这个所谓"丛林之王"可没有产生出什么敬佩之情。
Can a lion be confused with a dog? In Luohe, China, the answer is a
resolute 'no.' Visitors at the local zoo weren't impressed last week when they found a Tibetan mastiff in the cage earmarked for the king of the jungle.
不过在涉及到激进投资者的时候,答案就没那么清楚了。在华尔街,这一派别的对冲基金经理人引发了强烈的反响。一些人把他们神话为面对公司的愚笨为股东权利无畏鼓呼的人,另一些人则说他们是像猎犬一样凶猛,拿各种短期要求扑咬高管的脚后跟,结果反倒给公司带来损害。
When it comes to activist investors, though, the situation is less clear-cut. On Wall Street, this breed of hedge-fund
manager engenders
extreme reactions. Some lionize them as intrepid champions of shareholders' rights in the face of corporate ineptitude. Others
accuse them of terrier-like aggression, snapping at executives' heels with short-term demands that end up harming companies.
随着卡尔·伊坎(Carl Icahn)、威廉·阿克曼(William Ackman)和丹尼尔·洛布(Daniel Loeb)等知名激进投资者对苹果(Apple Inc.)、J.C. Penney Co.和索尼(Sony Corp.)之类的公司发起挑战,狮狗之辩有了新的紧迫性。
The
debate has taken on new urgency as high-profile activists such as Carl Icahn, William Ackman and Daniel Loeb have taken on the likes of Apple Inc., J.C. Penney Co. and Sony Corp.
投资者和公司高管都在关注,因为激进投资者是在以小搏大。据对冲基金研究公司(HFR)数据,他们控制的资产略超840亿美元,相比被动型基金管理的数万亿美元只是沧海一粟。但激进投资者发起的运动常常可以动摇股价,因为市场有很多人关注着他们。
Investors and corporate executives are watching, because activists punch above their weight. They control just over $84
billion in assets, according to HFR, a drop in the
bucket when compared with the trillions of dollars managed by
passive funds. But activists' campaigns can often move share prices because of their following in the market.
伊坎8月13日的推特信息说他已经建立苹果公司的大额头寸,使苹果股价当天上涨接近5%,让其市值增加了200亿美元左右。据《华尔街日报》报道,伊坎持有一笔价值15亿美元左右的苹果股权。
Mr. Icahn's tweet last Tuesday
saying he had taken a large position in Apple, sent its shares up nearly 5% on the day. That added some $20
billion to the company's market value, while, as The Wall Street Journal reported, Mr. Icahn owns a stake of around $1.5 billion.
这样的股价波动——以及他们在支持者与反对者中间引发的情绪——是否合理?
Are such share-price moves -- and the passions they
generate among supporters and critics -- justified?
激进投资不过是通过挑选低估值股票跑赢大市的诸种方法之一。差别在于激进投资者不是静候市场认识到公司的价值,而是要按照自己的想法去实现某些东西。
Activism investing is just another way to try to beat the market by picking undervalued stocks. The difference is that activists don't wait for the market to recognize a company's value, they try to make things happen on their own terms.
对于激进投资者而言,当前的环境几乎完美。在利率如此低、股价处于空前高位的情况下,养老基金迫切需要找到跑赢大市的途径;企业坐拥成堆的现金,回报少得可怜;从金融危机以来,企业董事会和管理层必须更加主动地回应外部人提出的疑问。
Current conditions are almost ideal for activists. With interest rates so low and stocks at record highs,
pension funds are
desperate for ways to beat the market; companies are sitting on record piles of cash earning measly returns; and since the
financial crisis, boards and executives have to be more responsive to outsiders.
Blue Harbour Group LP的行政总裁克里夫顿·罗宾斯(Clifton Robbins)说:"当前各种因素汇聚到一起,使各类激进投资的条件变得非常成熟。"Blue Harbour是一家远离董事会内斗的激进型基金公司。
'Right now there is a convergence of factors that are making conditions very ripe for all styles of activism,' says Clifton Robbins, chief
executive of Blue Harbour Group LP, an activist fund that eschews boardroom fights.
另一些人则认为他们满足了某种市场需求。阿克曼前不久对我说:"激进投资并不是一种适合所有情况的万能药。世界上的绝大多数资本都是被动型的,这些投资者控制着投票。如果他们认为某个激进投资者错了,他们就不会支持他。但至少他们有的选。"
Others argue that they fulfill a market need. 'Activism is not a cure-all for every situation,' Mr. Ackman told me last week. 'The vast majority of capital in the world is passive. These investors control the votes. If they think an activist is wrong, they won't support him. But at least they have a choice.'
虽然阿克曼和伊坎最近围绕膳食补充剂生产商Herbalife Ltd.而吵嘴,但在这一点上我发现他们之间存在着少见的共同立场。伊坎说:"我们所做的大事,是让CEO和管理层负起责来。激进投资者必须做好董事会没有做的工作,除了一些例外情况之外。"
On this point, I found rare common ground between Mr. Ackman and Mr. Icahn,
despite their recent squabbles over the nutritional-supplement maker Herbalife Ltd. 'The big thing we do is we make the CEO and
management accountable,' Mr. Icahn said. '[Activists] must do the job that, with exceptions, boards are not doing.'
伊坎和其他激进投资者做的这种工作并没有获得公司董事会的多少感谢。
Mr. Icahn and his peers aren't getting much
gratitude from boardrooms for this work.
比如资深企业顾问马丁·李普顿(Martin Lipton)就受不了激进投资者这种"什么都要、现在就要"的态度。
The
veteran corporate
adviser Martin Lipton, for one, can't stand activists' I-want-it-all-and-I-want-it-now attitude.
身为Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz公司创始合伙人的李普顿说:"公司遭受短期压力并非好事,对于整个经济而言也不是好事。这会束缚投资的手脚,从长远来讲,也会降低GDP的增长速度。"前不久的一篇学术论文的观点似乎与这种说法相反,但美国商界普遍持有李普顿的观点。
'It's not good for companies to be subjected to short-term
pressure and it's not good for the
economy as a whole,' said Mr. Lipton, a founding
partner of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. 'It deters investments and in the long-term it reduces the rate of growth of GDP.' A recent
academic study appears to
contradict that
assertion but Mr. Lipton's views are widely shared in corporate America.
在拉尔夫·惠特沃斯(Ralph Whitworth)这样经验丰富的激进投资者看来,这恰恰是问题所在。身为Relational Investors LLC创始人的惠特沃斯说:"这样讲的人常常不过是在说'再给我一些时间去犯相同的错误吧'。我一碰到这些人就说:我们是从你们的长期投资者手中买进的股票,如果我投资了,我就是你们最长线的股东。"
Which is exactly the problem in the eyes of a seasoned activist such as Ralph Whitworth. 'The people who are
saying that are usually just saying: 'Hey, give me more time to make the same mistakes,' ' Mr. Whitworth, a
founder of Relational Investors LLC, said. 'This is what I always tell these people: We bought the stock from your long-term shareholders. And if I am here, I am the longest-term shareholder you've got.'
瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse AG)旗下一家为公司提供应对激进投资咨询的子公司的负责人克里斯·扬(Chris Young)认为,董事会和管理层应当在惠特沃斯等人前来敲门之前就做好准备。他说:"'未雨绸缪'是童子军一直以来的座右铭。你的防守办法是绩效和准备——明白自己的弱点所在,知道激进投资者会怎样袭击你。"
矛盾的是,激进投资者的长线成绩一直优于短线成绩。从2005年以来,HFR编制的激进型对冲基金指数远远好于包含股利在内的标普500指数(S&P 500)表现。但今年两者接近相当。
Chris Young, who heads a Credit Suisse AG unit that advises companies against activists, maintains that boards and executives should be ready before Mr. Whitworth & Co. come knocking. 'It's the old Boy Scout's motto: 'Be prepared,' ' he said. 'Your defense is
performance and
preparation -- understanding where your weaknesses are and how an activist might come at you'
可惜大多数个人投资者都不是买入激进投资者的基金,而是在激进投资者公布他们的举动之后模仿。这正是危险所在。
Paradoxically, activists' long-term
performance has been superior to their short-term one. Since 2005, the activist hedge-fund index compiled by HFR has done much better than the S&P 500 (including dividends). This year, however, the two are almost on level terms.
因为监管备案的时滞问题,跟在正式公告之后买进的投资者几乎肯定是已经错失大幅股价波动(如果有的话)。碰到这种时候,最好的策略便是持有股票,与激进型基金共进退,期待它的提案会在公司身上见效。
Unfortunately, most individual investors don't get to buy into activists' funds and are relegated to aping their moves after they are announced. And that is where the perils lie.
换句话说,就是期待激进投资者阵营发出的声音是狮吼,不是狗叫。
Because of the time lag of regulatory filings, those who buy after an official
announcement are almost certain to have missed out on any big share-price movement. At that point, the best
strategy is to hold the stock and ride with the activist fund, hoping its proposals will work out for the company.