欧元区复苏推动,在其他新兴市场经济体受到抛售风暴袭击的时候,欧洲的新兴市场正在冉冉升起。据指数提供商MSCI明晟(MSCI)统计,过去三个月中欧和东欧股市上涨1.2%,而新兴市场整体下跌7.5%。若排除因大宗商品价格下滑而严重受创的俄罗斯公司,这些市场上涨2.3%。
Propelled by the euro zone's recovery, Europe's emerging markets are rising above the storm that has hit other developing economies.
波兰兹罗提和保加利亚列弗等货币兑美元汇率自今年5月以来也有所上涨,印度卢比和土耳其里拉则跌至纪录低点。
Stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe are up 1.2% in the past three months, compared with a 7.5% drop in emerging markets overall, according to index provider MSCI. These markets have risen 2.3% when Russian companies, which have been hard hit by falling
commodity prices, are excluded.
在亚洲和南美一些新兴市场遭受损失后,基金经理开始大举购买如匈牙利福林和捷克银行类股等资产。他们目前押注的是,在经历了长达一年半的衰退后,西欧恢复增长将刺激人们对汽车、家电和其它产于东欧的商品的需求。
Currencies such as Poland's zloty and the Bulgarian lev also are up against the dollar since May, while India's rupee and Turkey's lira have slid to record lows.
管理着约360亿美元资产的Record Currency Management Ltd的经济研究和外汇策略部门主管科罗米纳斯(Javier Corominas)说,中欧和东欧已成为新兴市场中相对安全的避风港。科罗米纳斯说,该公司在今年第二季度买入了匈牙利福林和波兰兹罗提。
Faced with losses in some Asian and South American emerging markets, money managers are scooping up assets such as the Hungarian forint and Czech bank stocks. They are betting that Western Europe's return to growth after a year-and-a-half-long recession will fuel demand for cars, appliances and other goods manufactured in Eastern Europe.
科罗米纳斯指出,匈牙利经常账户盈余(出口大于进口)是他们买入福林的一个原因。土耳其和印度等很多受新兴市场抛售冲击最严重的国家不仅出现了严重的贸易逆差,而且还在依赖外国投资来填补缺口。鉴于美联储准备(Federal Reserve)退出向金融市场注入大量廉价货币的政策,投资者目前对那些国家如何为进口商品付款、如何为债务融资持怀疑态度。
'Central and Eastern Europe has become a
relative safe haven within emerging markets,' said Javier Corominas, head of economic
research and
currencystrategy at Record Currency Management Ltd., which manages about $36 billion. Record Currency Management bought Hungarian forint and Polish zloty in the second quarter, Mr. Corominas said.
当然,尽管欧元区似乎即将摆脱二战以来历时最长的衰退,但该区内外的增长仍十分缓慢,失业率也很高。经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)预计波兰经济今年将仅扩张0.9%。
Mr. Corominas
pointed to Hungary's current-account surplus, in which exports outpace imports, as a reason to buy the forint. Many of the hardest hit countries in the emerging-market selloff, including Turkey and India, run big trade deficits and rely on foreign
investment to cover the gap. With the Federal Reserve preparing to wind down policies that flooded
financial markets with cheap cash, investors are questioning how those countries will pay for imports and
finance debt.
中欧和东欧经济可能还没有健康到足以阻止投资者逃离,特别是考虑到如果美联储收紧货币政策的话。欧元区债务危机再度恶化的可能性或许会破坏该地区新兴市场的稳定。
To be sure, even though the euro zone appears to be coming out of its longest recession since World War II, growth both in the region and right outside it remains slow and
unemployment high. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects Poland's
economy to
expand by just 0.9% this year.
富国银行顾问公司(Wells Fargo Advisor)的首席国际策略师克里斯托弗(Paul Christopher)说,我们宁愿押注欧洲大陆的另一边,也就是英国和挪威,新兴市场整体而言容易受到美联储动向的影响。该公司管理着1.3万亿美元的资产。
Central and Eastern Europe's
economy may not be
healthy enough to keep investors from fleeing, particularly if the Fed tightens
monetary policy. The
possibility of another flare-up in the euro zone's debt
crisis could also destabilize emerging markets in the region.
然而出口行业正在提振欧洲的新兴市场。据匈牙利统计局公布,该国上半年实现贸易顺差36.8亿欧元(合49.2亿美元),上年同期贸易顺差为36.2亿欧元。据波兰央行称,波兰6月份实现贸易顺差5.74亿欧元,上年同期贸易逆差10.9亿欧元。分析师说,在法国和德国等国家扩大商品进口之际,他们的新兴市场邻居会发现贸易顺差会进一步加大。
'We would prefer to play Europe from the other side of the Continent, from the U.K. and Norway,' said Paul Christopher, chief
international strategist at Wells Fargo Advisor, which has $1.3 trillion under management. 'Emerging markets in general are vulnerable...to what the Fed does.'
纽约梅隆银行股份有限公司(Bank of New York Mellon Co.)子公司Standish的高级分析师伯克兰(Kjetil Birkeland)说,他的基金(管理着150亿美元新兴市场债券资产)过去六个月买进了波兰兹罗提。他说,随着德国买进更多波兰商品,预计兹罗提将获得提振。
Still, exports are bolstering Europe's emerging markets. Hungary ran a trade
surplus of 3.68
billion euros ($4.92 billion) in the first half, according to the country's
statistics agency, compared with a 3.62
billion euros
surplus in the year-ago period. Poland reported a
surplus of 574 million euros in June, compared with a
deficit of 1.09
billion euros a year earlier, according to the Polish central bank. As countries such as France and Germany
import more goods, their emerging-market neighbors will see their trade balance tilt even more in their favor, analysts said.
周一公布的数据显示,波兰7月份零售额较上年同期增长4.3%,增幅高于预期的2.8%,与此同时,失业率将至13.1%。捷克经济也从长达18个月的衰退中复苏,该国4月至6月国内生产总值(GDP)较前一季度增长0.7%。
Kjetil Birkeland,
senior analyst at Standish, a subsidiary of the Bank of New York Mellon Corp., said his fund, which manages $15
billion in emerging-market debt, bought Polish zloty in the past six months. Mr. Birkeland said he expects the zloty to get a lift as Germany buys more Polish goods.
管理着4,440亿美元资产的AllianceBernstein LP的投资组合经理哈廷(Morgan Harting)在今年提高了对捷克银行业的敞口,在经济扩张之际,捷克银行业会获得更多业务。哈廷说,当邻国情况好转,你会想到捷克经济也会改善。
Data released on Monday showed Poland's
retail sales for July rose 4.3% from the same month last year, surpassing expectations for 2.8% growth, while
unemployment eased to 13.1%. The Czech
economy recovered from an 18-month recession when its gross
domestic product expanded 0.7% in April to June from the
previous quarter.
投资者说,中东欧国家股票价格相对于公司利润来说也偏低,这就为逢低吸纳者提供了机会。据MSCI明晟的数据,中东欧国家股票价格较其2011年峰值下跌了34%。
Morgan Harting, portfolio
manager at AllianceBernstein LP, which manages $444 billion, this year boosted the fund manager's
exposure to Czech banks, which would
generate more business as the
economy expands. 'You think about the Czech Republic
economy improving as its
neighborhood gets better,' Mr. Harting said.
数据提供商EPFR Global的数据显示,自5月初以来,主要投资波兰股票的基金资金 流入额约2.3亿美元。相比之下,同期欧洲、中东和非洲股票总计流出资金9.3亿美元。
Central and Eastern European share prices also are low
relative to corporate profits, creating opportunities for
bargain hunters, investors said. Stocks are down 34% from their 2011 peak, according to MSCI.
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)驻伦敦的首席新兴市场经济学家希灵(Neil Shearing)说,欧洲新兴经济体并不是美联储债券购买计划的最大受益者,所以他们受到的冲击较小并不让人感到意外。
Since early May, investors have put about a net $230 million into funds that
mainly buy Polish stocks, according to data provider EPFR Global. In comparison, investors pulled a combined $930 million from stocks in Europe, the Middle East and Africa in the same period.
Clare Connaghan / Lauren Davidson