Worst Isn't Over for Wall Street Jobs

2008年10月15日

Wall Street is listening for that giant sacking sound.

Official statistics indicate the number of finance and insurance employees in New York City held steady at around 345,000 through the first eight months of 2008. Such apparent equilibrium can't last. Behind the market meltdowns, business is slowing. Dealogic estimates investment-banking fees fell 23% globally in the first nine months of 2008. Business lines such as equity capital markets are back to levels last seen five years ago.

The industry's upheaval renders earlier budgets obsolete. Amid such uncertainty, and with rehiring costs high, it makes sense to delay wholesale cuts. Relatively few employees will expect great bonuses anyway.

Large-scale firings look unavoidable eventually, however. Between 2001 and 2003, 18% of New York's securities-industry jobs disappeared. This downturn looks more profound. Leverage lovers in private equity and hedge funds are unlikely to offer many surplus bankers a home, and aren't big employers anyway.

Beyond redundancies, however, a cultural shift, particularly on compensation, looks likely. Richard Fuld's nine-figure pay packet since 2000 was slammed in the former Lehman Brothers chief executive's recent grilling in Washington and will haunt the industry.

On that basis, sweetheart offers such as those given by Nomura to newly acquired Lehmanites in Asia and parts of Europe look anachronistic. After all, where would the truly dissatisfied have gone

Wall Street has lost some sex appeal. Many financiers will have to find other pursuits or modify pay ambitions. In a global economy characterized by excess financial-services capacity and a deficit of energy sources, enrolling in an engineering course might not be a bad idea.

Liam Denning

华尔街就业形势还将恶化

尔街正在等待裁员的巨号随时吹响。

官方统计数据显示，2008年前8个月，纽约市的金融和保险从业人员一直稳定在345,000人左右。这种平稳状态无法持续下去了。市场崩盘以后，华尔街的生意也日渐萧条。据Dealogic估计，2008年前9个月全球投行业务服务费收入下降了23%。股权资本市场等领域的业务量已经回落到5年前的水平。

金融业发生的这场剧变使华尔街各公司较早时制定的预算全部作废。在这种不明朗形势之下，回聘成本又高，推迟大规模裁员是明智的选择。不过有望获得高额奖金的员工也不会太多。

然而，大规模裁员看来终将无可避免。在2001至2003年期间，纽约的证券业就业岗位蒸发了18%。而目前这次萧条看来情况更严重。私人资本运营公司和对冲基金不大可能给华尔街上剩余的银行家们提供多少就业岗位，而且它们本来也不是用人大户。

此次萧条不仅会导致华尔街出现大量冗员，还有可能催生一场文化变迁，特别是在薪酬方面。雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)前首席执行长理查德·福尔德(Richard Fuld)自2000年以来从公司领到的薪酬已经达到9位数，这一点使他最近在华盛顿备受抨击，而且也将成为金融业遭人诟病的把柄。

在这一背景下，野村证券(Nomura)给它最近在亚洲及部分欧洲国家接手的雷曼兄弟前雇员开出的善心薪酬看上去有些过时。毕竟，即使不给高薪这些在华尔街丢掉工作的人又能去哪里呢？

华尔街已经丧失了些许魅力。许多金融从业人员要么得到其他行业谋求发展，要么就得降低薪酬期望值。在当今这种金融服务资源过剩而能源供应不足的全球大背景下，投身工程行业或许是个不错的选择。

Liam Denning