The International Monetary Fund is putting final touches on a plan to help developing nations weather the global financial
crisis by providing loans that don't require borrowers to make
far-reachingpolicy changes.
Under the plan, the IMF would offer to 'pre-approve' nations whose policies the IMF judges to be sound but which are facing liquidity problems. Among the measures the IMF is
considering to evaluate countries are whether they have borrowed from the IMF during the past three years and whether they meet debt-level standards, a
senior IMF official said. The plan may go to the IMF's governing board for
approval Friday.
The kinds of countries the IMF has in mind are those such as Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and Eastern European nations that don't have big current-account deficits. The loans would be provided to those countries without the usual required
policy changes, such as privatizing industries or
ending subsidies, because qualified countries are deemed well-managed.
Board
approval is likely, but not certain. Germany and other European countries often object to IMF plans to lend money without tough conditions.
It is unclear how big the l
ending program will be. The IMF has at least $200
billion in resources and may try to combine forces with other international institutions and individual nations.
In the wake of the Asia financial
crisis of 1997, where the IMF was criticized for being heavy-handed, the group launched a similar pre-
approval effort, but developing countries largely shunned the program because they feared that participating would mark them as credit risks.
Creating a list of such qualified countries is also
fraught with politics, said Morris Goldstein, a former
senior IMF researcher who is now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 'Once you approve a country, how do you get them disapproved' if they adopt what the IMF considers wrong-headed policies, he said. Taking them off the list could
prompt a run on the country's banks, critics fear.
With the global economy sinking fast, countries may no longer be so fussy, and the IMF may be content with wrestling with dis
approval issues later on.
Bob DavisIMF欲放松贷款政策
国
际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的一项旨在帮助发展中国家应对全球金融危机的计划即将进入最后通过阶段。IMF计划向相关国家提供贷款、但不要求贷款国相应做出影响范围广泛的政策调整。
根据计划,IMF将列出一个它认为政策合理、但在流动性方面面临困难的国家名单作为它事先同意的潜在贷款对象。IMF一位高级官员说, IMF正在考虑的藉以筛选合格国家的指标包括:他们过去3年是否曾从IMF借款、他们是否达到债务方面的标准。该计划将于周五提交IMF理事会通过。
IMF针对的国家应该是没有巨额经常项目赤字的国家如墨西哥、巴西、韩国和东欧国家等。这次提供贷款将不像通常那样要求借款国进行政策改革,比如对工业实行私有化或停止补贴,因为符合条件的应是被认为管理有方的国家。
IMF理事会有可能批准该计划,但现在还不能确定。德国和其他欧洲国家经常反对IMF在不附带严格条件的情况下对外贷款。
现在还不清楚这次的贷款计划总规模会有多大。IMF至少有2,000亿美元可以动用,而且它或许尝试联合其他国际机构和国家一起行动。
1997的年亚洲金融危机之后,IMF也曾有过类似的列出潜在放贷目标的贷款行动,但当时IMF被认为条件太苛刻,而发展中国家大多对计划不感兴趣,因为他们担心,参加这样的行动会被视为国内发生信贷危机的信号。
前IMF高级研究员、现供职于Peterson Institute for International Economics的戈德斯坦因(Morris Goldstein)说,制定这种合格国家名单也充满了政治难题。他说,一旦同意向某个国家提供贷款,但如果他们实行IMF认为是错误的政策,你该怎么取消他们的借款资格呢。批评人士担心,将某个国家从名单上清除可能会导致该国银行发生挤兑。
随着全球经济快速下滑,相关国家或许不再那么挑剔,而IMF可能也愿意以后再纠缠取消借款资格的问题。
Bob Davis