OPEC ministers on Friday face their toughest decision in years as they weigh the depth of a cut in oil exports to reverse falling prices, even as the U.S. and Europe wrestle with the increasing likelihood of a wrenching recession.

The difficulty of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' challenge is apparent in some of the unusual theater of the cartel's emergencygathering here. Anticipating a long debate, the group's 13 ministers planned to meet early Friday, a departure from their more leisurelymidday powwows.

All the delegates appear to favor an output cut, but intense haggling is sure to ensue over who should bear the brunt of reduced exports. OPEC furnishes the world with about 40% of its oil needs.

U.S. benchmark crude rose 1.6% to $67.84 Thursday, up $1.09 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, in part in anticipation of an OPEC supply cut and amid a general recovery in assets of all stripes.

It is all but certain OPEC will agree Friday to cut at least one millon barrels a day from the around 32 million barrels a day the group now supplies.

But several factors suggest a cut of that magnitude may do little to stem the price fall, especially as oil markets have been assuming OPEC will lop a million barrels from its daily output. For one, the soaring dollar over the past month is exerting downward pressure on the price of oil, which is priced in dollars.

Also, the continued plunge in world stock markets has increased fears of a global economic slowdown that would sap demand for oil across the board.

Even though the results of the expected cut may be in doubt, few observers question the wisdom of OPEC trimming its output to avoid oversupply and to protect its own interests.

Forecasters have recently downgraded their expectations for next year, seeing tepid growth in overall oil demand. At a time when petroleum demand is off sharply in the U.S. and other industrialized countries, some see global oil demand falling this year for the first time in decades.

But there is still heated debate within OPEC over how severely to slash output now. Some countries, including Iran, advocate a cut now of two million barrels a day or more.

OPEC itself has remained fairly optimistic about oil demand next year, predicting in a report this month that demand could grow by just under 1% in 2009. But such assessments are changing almost daily as the world's financial outlook darkens.

The biggest wild card going into next year is China, whose heady economic growth now appears to be cooling. Any evidence of a sharper slowdown in China would likely send oil prices plunging even in the face of sharp OPEC cuts.

Spencer Swartz / Neil King Jr.

欧佩克面临艰难减产决定

油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称：欧佩克)成员国的石油部长们周五将需做出一项他们多年来难度最大的决定，他们要评估需减产多少才能扭转油价下跌的局面，而美国和欧洲目前出现经济衰退的可能性正日益加大。

从欧佩克本次紧急会议一些不同寻常的安排上，就能看出做出这一决策的难度之大。由于预计会议将进行长时间的辩论，与会的13位石油部长决定周五一早就开会，而他们通常都是中午才开会的。

虽然所有与会者似乎都支持减产，但各方肯定会为谁应该承担减产任务的大头而展开激烈的讨价还价。欧佩克满足了全世界约40%的石油需求。

纽约商交所基准原油价格周四上涨了1.09美元，升至每桶67.84美元，涨幅1.6%，这既是因为投资者预计欧佩克将会减产，也是因为各类资产的价格普遍出现了回升。

几乎可以肯定的一点是，欧佩克周五将做出将其原油日产量至少调减100万桶的决定。欧佩克目前的原油日产量约为3,200万桶。

但几项因素显示，这一减产量可能无法起到制止油价下跌的作用，特别是鉴于石油市场早就估计到欧佩克会将原油日产量减少100万桶。因素之一是，过去一个月美元汇率的飙升正在给油价施加下行压力，原油是以美元定价的。

此外，全球股市的持续暴跌使人们愈发担心世界经济增长将会放缓，经济减速将使全球石油需求普遍下降。

尽管欧佩克并无悬念的减产对制止油价下跌能起多大作用仍值得怀疑，但对于欧佩克通过减产来避免石油供应过剩并保护自身利益的举动，却没有什么观察人士认为属不明智之举。

预测人士不久前已下调了对明年石油需求的预期，认为全球石油需求只会温和增长。鉴于美国和其他工业化国家的石油需求正大幅下降，一些人认为世界石油需求今年将出现几十年来的首次下降。

但欧佩克内部在究竟以多大幅度减产的问题上目前仍存在激烈争论。包括伊朗在内的一些国家支持将原油日产量减少200万桶或者更多。

欧佩克自己对明年世界石油需求的看法还是相当乐观的，它在本月发表的一份报告中预测，2009年的世界石油需求增长率仅会略低于1%。但随着全球金融前景的日益黯淡，这类需求预测现在几乎每天都在变化。

明年最大的不确定因素是中国，持续高速增长的中国经济目前似乎正在降温。如果有证据显示中国经济增长出现了更大程度的放缓，即使欧佩克大幅减产，石油价格也有可能暴跌。

Spencer Swartz / Neil King Jr.