Paulson & Co. Scores Again This Year

2008年10月27日

The market has crumbled, big-name hedge funds are struggling and investors are licking their wounds.

But John Paulson is having another good year.

Last year, Mr. Paulson racked up more than $15 billion of gains for his hedge-fund firm, Paulson & Co.

This year, the three main funds managed by his $35 billion firm are up between 15% and 25% so far this year, according to investors. If these gains hold, Mr. Paulson could reap a payday of more than $500 million for this year, according to estimates by investors. Last year, he personally made more than $3 billion. While some other hedge funds are up this year, in which the average hedge fund is down more than 17%. Few if any of those with good performance have as much money under management as Mr. Paulson.

'It doesn't make me happy that the markets are down and so many people aren't dong well, but I'm relieved that we're able to sail through this crisis and remain in positive territory,' the 52-year-old Mr. Paulson said. History is full of investors who got it right, only to blow it on their next big trade. But Mr. Paulson is building on the successes of last year by expanding his bearish stance on housing.

Mr. Paulson along with a portfolio manager in his shop, Paolo Pellegrini, and their 70-person team, this year correctlyanticipated that the severe difficulties that hit subprime mortgages would spill over to the broader financial system. They profited by wagering against global financial giants and British banks, according to investors and public filings.

'We're not macro players,' said Mr. Paulson, who has a background in merger arbitrage and earlier this year hired Alan Greenspan for advice. 'But because we thought we were going into a recession and the stock market usually falls in a recession, we reduced our long exposure and increased our short exposure.'

Mr. Paulson remains concerned about the global economy and expects a 'tough' recession. He isn't yet spending the firm's cash, which accounts for more than half of his portfolio, according to his investors. While Mr. Paulson has been raising a new fund worth more than $1 billion to invest in beaten-down financial firms, he isn't doing any buying yet.

Mr. Paulson has made his share of mistakes in 2008, such as buying Mirant Corp., a utility that has fallen 62% in the past year. Yahoo Inc. has been another decliner for Mr. Paulson.

His profits don't come close to matching those of last year because of a difference in the way he has been trading. His strategy this year has involved shorting financial shares, an approach with greater downside risk. That risk discouraged him from being too aggressive and limited his upside.

Mr. Paulson resisted the urge to buy beaten-down investments, something that has hurt stars like Dinaker Singh and J. Christopher Flowers as those trades fell in value. And Mr. Paulson avoided owning shares tied to commodities or highly-rated mortgages, other moves that seemed smart for a while but that eventually cost many hedge funds dearly.

Late last year, as Mr. Paulson's funds built up gains holding credit-default swaps that protect against defaults of subprime-mortgage debt, and by wagering against the ABX index that tracks risky mortgage debt, he began to anticipate that worse was coming.

His reasoning: The surge in consumer spending over the previous decade resulted from rising debt loads and would now slump, leading to a recession, a big drop for stocks, and a surge in volatility, he recalls telling his investors.

So late last year and earlier this year, the firm reduced its stock holdings and boosted its short positions. Mr. Paulson and his team focused almost exclusively on financial companies, arguing that many were undercapitalized and had deteriorating mortgage and other assets.

As for his subprime moves, many were unwound late last year, and almost all of the remaining trades were eliminated by July of this year, as subprime-related investments fell to pennies on the dollar. His CDS trades were paid off by his trading partners on a daily basis, allowing Mr. Paulson to sleep at night as trading partners, including leading investment banks, faltered.

'When you win one year you don't quit,' Mr. Paulson said, 'you want to win again.'

Gregory Zuckerman

股市大跌中的赢家

市暴跌，大牌对冲基金陷入困境，投资者正在舔舐他们的伤口。

但对约翰•鲍尔森(John Paulson)而言，今年又是一个丰收年。

John Paulson

去年，鲍尔森的对冲基金公司Paulson & Co.共获得了150多亿美元的收益。

投资者称，今年，这家资产350亿美元的公司管理的三只主要基金的升幅达到了15%-25%。根据投资者的估计，如果能够保持住这一增幅，鲍尔森今年的收入有望超过5亿美元。去年他自己赚了30多亿美元。尽管部分对冲基金今年出现了上涨，但对冲基金今年平均下跌了17%以上。在有上佳表现的基金中，很少有哪只基金管理的资金规模可同鲍尔森的公司匹敌。

52岁的鲍尔森说，市场下跌，这么多的人不顺，我很难高兴起来。但我感到欣慰的是，我们渡过了这场危机，依然保持增长。历史上充满了曾经正确、但在下一笔大交易中受到重创的投资者。不过鲍尔森正在扩大去年看跌房地产业的立场所取得的成功。

鲍尔森同其投资组合经理帕奥罗•佩莱格里尼(Paolo Pellegrini)及70人的团队今年成功预测了次贷危机将扩散到整个金融系统。据投资者和公开报告称，做空跨国金融巨头和英国的银行让他们获利了。

鲍尔森拥有从事并购套利业务的背景，今年初曾聘用格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)作为顾问。他说，我们不是宏观投资者。但他称，因为我们认为我们将会陷入衰退，股市在衰退期通常会下跌，因此我们减少了多头头寸，增加了空头头寸。

鲍尔森仍对全球经济感到担忧，预计将出现严重衰退。据他的投资者称，他尚未动用现金，目前这部分在其组合中的比例超过了一半。尽管鲍尔森曾筹集10多亿美元新资金，准备投资于受到重创的金融企业，但他尚未有任何买进动作。

鲍尔森2008年也作出过一些错误决策，如买进公用事业股迈朗(Mirant Corp.)，该股在过去一年中下跌了62%。雅虎(Yahoo Inc.)是另一只鲍尔森买入后大幅下跌的股票。

他的利润与去年相比落差较大，原因在于其交易方式的差别。他今年的策略是作空金融类股，这种做法具有很大的下行风险。这种风险也令其不敢放手一搏，限制了获利空间。

鲍尔森顶住了要求买进遭重创股票的呼声，辛格(Dinaker Singh)和弗劳尔斯(J. Christopher Flowers)等明星交易员就在这上面栽了跟头。鲍尔森还避免持有同大宗商品或高利率抵押贷款有关的股票，这也是一些一时看起来明智但最终让许多对冲基金付出惨重代价的举措。

去年晚些时候，随着鲍尔森的基金因持有信用违约掉期和做空ABX指数的收益不断增加，他开始预感到更糟糕的时刻正在到来。信用违约掉期主要用于防止次级抵押债券的违约，而ABX指数则跟踪高风险抵押贷款债务。

他记得曾向投资者说，他的推断是：过去10年里消费者支出的增加来自于债务负担的上升，现在支出将会下降，从而导致衰退、股价大幅下跌以及动荡程度加剧。

因此在去年末和今年初，该公司减少了股票头寸，增加了卖空头寸。鲍尔森和他的团队几乎只关注金融公司，称许多公司的资本金不足，抵押贷款和其它资产情况不断恶化。

对于他的次级贷款类投资，许多都已经在去年底解除了，剩下的几乎所有交易也都在今年7月份之前，当时很多次贷类投资都跌到了面值的10%以下。他的信用违约掉期交易每天都从交易对手方那里获得回报，晚上鲍尔森可以酣睡，而包括主要投行在内的他的那些交易对手方却损失惨重。

鲍尔森说，一年的成功之后你没有放弃，你会想再次取胜。

Gregory Zuckerman