From CEOs to secretaries, Wall Street's miserable year is about to hit where it hurts. Two compensation experts set to release projections for bonus payments predict they will plummet 20% to 50% from last year.

It will be the second consecutive drop following a four-year surge, with the deepest cuts affecting bankers and traders in businesses that blew up during the credit crisis, including structured finance and mortgage-backed securities. Bonuses in areas that haven't been pummeled as badly, such as asset management and brokerage units, will suffer smaller declines.

'It's not going to be pretty,' said Michael Karp, chief executive of the Options Group, which based its projections on polls of Wall Street employees and company disclosures of compensation during the first three quarters.

Even star performers might see their pay stuck at last year's levels, Mr. Karp said, with other 'top' talent taking a hit of 20% to 30% and 'everyone else' down 40% to 75%.

Compensation consultant Johnson Associates Inc., which has a slightly less somber view of overall payouts, projects that bonuses for chief executives and other top executives whose compensation must be disclosed to shareholders will tumble 60% to 70%.

Typically, half of all revenue at firms such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley goes to pay employees. As business skids and job cuts mount, Wall Street employees still left already were girding themselves for smaller bonuses. Now political heat and an inquiry by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo are creating pressure to 'ratchet down the numbers,' Mr. Karp said.

In particularly hard-hit areas such as structured credit, which churned out collateralized debt obligations that blew holes in many Wall Street balance sheets, managing directors could see their bonus fall 50% to $750,000 to $950,000, according to the Options Group. Their base pay is about $200,000 a year. Vice presidents with three years of experience in the same area could expect a 55% cut in bonus to $200,000 to $250,000, on top of a base of $130,000 to $150,000.

Among investment bankers who maintain contact with corporate clients but don't make trading decisions, managing directors could see their bonus fall 50% to between $900,000 and $1.1 million.

Bonuses will shrink less in businesses that have held up relatively well. In foreign-exchange trading, a managing director could expect a 15% drop in bonus to $1 million to $1.5 million, Options Group predicts.

In commodities, where prices surged and then fell, a managing director could see a 25% drop to a bonus of $3.5 million to $4 million.

Starting next year, some Wall Street firms may attempt to move to a multiyear, performance-based pay structure that would address instances of business groups that report profits one year by taking risks that blow up later, triggering losses.

Randall Smith

华尔街奖金将大幅缩水

首席执行长到文秘，在如此惨淡的一年，华尔街无人能够置身事外。两家将发布预测数字的薪酬专业机构预计，今年华尔街的奖金规模将较去年下降20%-50%。

在度过此前四年奖金暴涨的美好时光后，华尔街的奖金红包将连续第二年缩水；奖金损失最为严重的将是那些业务遭受信贷危机重创的银行家和交易员，包括结构性金融和抵押贷款支持证券业务。资产管理和经纪业务等遭受冲击较小的业务领域人士的奖金降幅也会相对较小。

Options Group首席执行长卡普(Michael Karp)表示，形势不太好。根据对华尔街职员的调查以及今年前三个季度各家公司披露的奖金数据，Options Group作出了自己的预测。

卡普说，即便是明星员工的薪酬可能也只停留在去年水平上，其他重要人才奖金可能会下降20%-30%，而普通职员则会削减40%-75%。

薪酬咨询公司Johnson Associates Inc.对整体薪酬的预测相比之下略微乐观些。但该公司预计，薪酬数据必须向股东披露的首席执行长和其他高管，他们的奖金将下降60%-70%。

通常而言，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)等公司都会把半数收入发给员工。随着业务急速下滑，裁员数目增加，保住饭碗的华尔街员工已经做好了奖金缩水的准备。卡普表示，政治压力加上纽约州司法部长库莫(Andrew Cuomo)的质疑带来了要求削减奖金的沉重压力。

据Options Group预计，在结构性信贷等损失尤为惨重的领域，董事总经理的奖金可能会缩水一半，降到75万-95万美元。结构性信贷带来的债权抵押证券(CDO)使得华尔街许多公司资产负债表失血严重。这些人士的基础年薪是20万美元左右。拥有三年同一领域工作经历的副总裁，他们的奖金可能会削减55%至20万-25万美元；他们基础年薪是13万-15万美元。

那些和企业客户保持联系但不作交易决策的投资银行家中，董事总经理的奖金可能会缩水50%，至90万-110万美元。

那些业务相对良好领域的管理人士，他们的奖金缩水幅度会较小。Options Group预计，外汇交易领域一名董事总经理的奖金可能会下降15%，至100万-150万美元。

在价格先涨后跌的大宗商品领域，一名董事总经理的奖金可能会下降25%，至350万-400万美元。

一些华尔街公司可能会从明年开始转而采取多年绩效薪酬体系；对那些头年冒险利润丰厚、下年就贪得无厌导致亏损的商业团体来说，这或许是条化解之道。

Randall Smith