Aviation Losses Expected To Narrow
2008年12月11日
The International Air Transport Association predicted that aviation-industry losses next year won't be as deep as this year's because of the decline in fuel prices, but it said prospects remain gloomy.
IATA, a Switzerland-based international trade body that represents about 230 airlines accounting for 93% of scheduled international air traffic world-wide, on Tuesday forecast industry losses will total $2.5 billion next year. That compares with a forecast loss of $5 billion for this year.
The 2008 figure is an improvement from IATA's forecast in September, when it projected a loss of $5.2 billion. It attributed the revision to the fall in fuel prices.
Oil prices next year are expected to average $60 a barrel, for a total fuel bill of $142 billion, or $32 billion lower than in 2008, when oil is expected to average $100 a barrel.
Despite the anticipated improvement, IATA expects the pessimistic mood to linger. 'The outlook is bleak,' IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani said. Industry revenue next year is expected to decline to $501 billion from the $536 billionforecast for 2008. The drop is the first since consecutive years of decline in 2001 and 2002.
At the same time, passenger traffic is expected to fall 3%, following growth of 2% in 2008. This is the first decline in passenger traffic since a 2.7% drop in 2001.
The reduction in year-to-year industry losses largely will reflect a shift in results for carriers in North America, IATA said. Carriers in that region were hardest hit by higher fuel prices: Their combined losses are expected to total $3.9 billion this year. But their failure to hedge has allowed them to take advantage of the decline in spot prices.
North American carriers, which cut domestic capacity in 2008 by 10%, are expected to post a profit of $300 million in 2009.
'North America will be the only region in the black, but the expected $300 million profit is less than 1% of their revenue,' Mr. Bisignani said. Next year 'will be another tough year for everyone,' he said.
Losses for European carriers in 2009 will increase tenfold to $1 billion. Europe's main economies already are in recession. Hedging has locked in high fuel prices for many of the region's carriers in dollar terms, and the weakened euro is exaggerating that impact.
Jonathan Buck
IATA, a Switzerland-based international trade body that represents about 230 airlines accounting for 93% of scheduled international air traffic world-wide, on Tuesday forecast industry losses will total $2.5 billion next year. That compares with a forecast loss of $5 billion for this year.
The 2008 figure is an improvement from IATA's forecast in September, when it projected a loss of $5.2 billion. It attributed the revision to the fall in fuel prices.
Oil prices next year are expected to average $60 a barrel, for a total fuel bill of $142 billion, or $32 billion lower than in 2008, when oil is expected to average $100 a barrel.
Despite the anticipated improvement, IATA expects the pessimistic mood to linger. 'The outlook is bleak,' IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani said. Industry revenue next year is expected to decline to $501 billion from the $536 billionforecast for 2008. The drop is the first since consecutive years of decline in 2001 and 2002.
At the same time, passenger traffic is expected to fall 3%, following growth of 2% in 2008. This is the first decline in passenger traffic since a 2.7% drop in 2001.
The reduction in year-to-year industry losses largely will reflect a shift in results for carriers in North America, IATA said. Carriers in that region were hardest hit by higher fuel prices: Their combined losses are expected to total $3.9 billion this year. But their failure to hedge has allowed them to take advantage of the decline in spot prices.
North American carriers, which cut domestic capacity in 2008 by 10%, are expected to post a profit of $300 million in 2009.
'North America will be the only region in the black, but the expected $300 million profit is less than 1% of their revenue,' Mr. Bisignani said. Next year 'will be another tough year for everyone,' he said.
Losses for European carriers in 2009 will increase tenfold to $1 billion. Europe's main economies already are in recession. Hedging has locked in high fuel prices for many of the region's carriers in dollar terms, and the weakened euro is exaggerating that impact.
Jonathan Buck
全球航空业亏损额预计将收窄
据
国际航空运输协会(International Air Transport Association，简称IATA)预测，由于燃料价格的下滑，明年航空业的亏损将不如今年严重，不过行业前景依然黯淡。IATA周二预测称，明年航空业的亏损总额将达25亿美元。今年的亏损额预计为50亿美元。该国际行业组织总部位于瑞士，代表着约230家航空公司，航空运输量占世界总量的93%。
IATA 9月份曾预测2008年航空业亏损总额为52亿美元；相比之下，新的预测数据显示情况有所好转。亏损预期的下调主要因为燃料价格下滑。
明年的平均油价预计将为每桶60美元，航空业的总计燃料支出将为1,420亿美元，较2008年低320亿美元，2008年的平均油价预计为每桶100美元。
尽管预期情况会有所好转，但IATA预计悲观情绪仍将挥之不去。IATA负责人比西尼亚尼(Giovanni Bisignani)说，航空业的前景很黯淡。航空业明年的收入预计将从2008年预期的5,360亿美元减至5,010亿美元，是2001-2002年连续两年下滑以来的首次下降。
与此同时，明年的客运量预计将在2008年增长2%后减少3%，是客运量2001年下降2.7%以来首次出现下滑。
IATA表示，明年的航空业亏损预计较今年有所下降，这从很大程度上反映了北美地区航空公司收益的变化。北美的航空公司是受燃料价格上涨冲击最大的，这些公司今年的亏损总额预计将达39亿美元。不过由于它们没有进行对冲操作，所以将从现货价格下滑中受益。
2008年北美的航空公司将国内运力削减了10%，预计2009年将实现利润3亿美元。
比西尼亚尼说，北美将是唯一一个盈利的地区，不过预计的3亿美元利润还不到收入的1%。他说，明年各个航空公司的日子都不好过。
2009年欧洲航空公司的亏损将上升10倍，至10亿美元。欧洲的主要经济体已经处于衰退中。由于该地区的很多航空公司都进行了对冲操作，所以它们以美元计的燃料价格被锁定在较高水平，并且走软的欧元又进一步将冲击扩大了。
Jonathan Buck
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