The Lapse of Luxury

2009年2月21日

New York this week, London next. But away from the catwalks at this season's fashion shows, the couture industry has lost its swagger amid a global slump in demand for luxury goods. Several fashion labels have been forced to lay off staff, including Burberry Group and Chanel. French luxury goods giant LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton reported a slump in demand for watches and jewelry. So much for the myth that luxury goods are recession-proof.

Luxury-goods sales are forecast to fall 15% this year, according to Bernstein, reflecting the unprecedented global-wealth destruction. The impact is being felt across all segments as consumers trade down or cut unnecessary expenditures. Branded-goods groups must decide how much of the slump is cyclical and how much reflects a permanent change in consumerbehavior. It is a process sure to produce lots of losers and few winners.

This is a far cry from recent years. From 2003 to 2007, the global luxury market grew on average 7% a year to $170 billion, fueled by soaring asset prices. Analysts at Citigroup even coined a word, 'plutonomy,' for a world in which an ever-expanding minority of ultrawealthy individuals would fuel rapid growth for luxury. Much of this was expected from emerging markets.

The sudden turnaround creates a dilemma not only for luxury businesses, but also mainstream consumer-goods companies that bet heavily on 'premiumization' -- moving brands upscale to attract more affluent consumers. A protracted slump could mean a permanent backlash against conspicuous consumption.

Branded-goods companies must decide whether to defend their premium prices and risk losing market share or try repositioning the brand. Cutting prices could permanently destroy brand value. Luxury-fashion company It Holding, whose brands include Gianfranco Ferre, recently filed for bankruptcy protection, partly blaming the impact of heavy discounting in stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue. However, maintaining brand value requires heavy investment. French cosmetics group L'Oreal this week blamed cuts in advertising spending for a 3.5% fall in operating profit in 2008.

This new environment is sure to mean casualties among second-tier brands. The winners will be the megabrands that can outspend rivals on advertising and promotion. Also well-placed are those with well-diversified portfolios. LVMH offset weakness in watches and jewelry with strong performances from fashion-and-perfume brands Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior. In a different business, spirits giants Diageo and Pernod Ricard should do well as they can offset some losses on premium brands with gains on their cheaper, mainstream brands. Global scale also is crucial. Long term, much of the growth should still come from emerging markets.

But the biggest winners of all will be those who can reposition their brands to capture the mood of the times. Goodbye, bling. Hello, austerity chic.

Molly Neal / Simon Nixon

奢侈品风光不再

周是纽约时装周，下周是伦敦时装周。但除了本季时装发布会上的模特走台，由于全球奢侈品市场都陷入了萧条，高级时装业已经不复往昔的招摇。包括巴宝莉(Burberry Group)和香奈尔(Chanel)在内的几大时尚品牌已被迫裁员。法国奢侈品巨头酩悦•轩尼诗－路易•威登集团(LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton)宣布，其手表和珠宝的市场需求陷入严重低迷。奢侈品行业可以不受经济衰退影响的神话可以到此为止了。

Bloomberg News/Landov

2008年9月22日，意大利米兰，巴宝莉2009年春夏
女装发布会结束时，模特们走过T台

伯恩斯坦(BERNSTEIN)预测说，因为全球财富缩水达到了史无前例的程度，今年的奢侈品销售额将下降15%。由于消费者纷纷下调消费档次、缩减非必要支出，需求下滑波及到了奢侈品行业的各个门类。名牌商品集团必须分辨出，此轮市场萧条多大程度上是周期性现象，多大程度上反映了消费者行为的永久性改变。这一萧条进程产生的输家肯定会远远多于赢家。

而此前几年的情况却与这大不相同。从2003年到2007年，全球奢侈品市场的总规模增加到1,700亿美元，年均增长7%，资产价格飙升对此起了推波助澜作用。花旗集团(Citigroup)的分析师们甚至创造了plutonomy一词，用以形容不断壮大的富豪队伍将推动奢侈品行业的迅速增长。人们预计新兴市场国家是推动奢侈品行业增长的主力军。

市场形势的骤然逆转使奢侈品行业和主流消费品企业双双陷入了进退两难的境地，后者对"高档化"经营策略押下了重注。这一策略就是提升品牌档次，以吸引更多富裕的消费者前来购买。旷日持久的经济萧条可能意味着，高档消费将迎来漫长的低迷期。

知名品牌企业必须做出决定，究竟是坚持高价位而冒丧失市场份额的危险，还是重新定位自己的品牌。削价有可能永久性地摧毁品牌价值。拥有奇安弗兰科•费雷(Gianfranco Ferre)等品牌的奢侈-时尚品公司It Holding最近申请破产保护，这一定程度上要归因于在Saks Fifth Avenue等零售店的深度打折促销。但维持品牌价值需要大量投资。法国化妆品公司欧莱雅(L'Oreal)本周将公司2008年运营利润下降3.5%归咎于广告支出的削减。

这一新的经营环境无疑意味着二线品牌中有一些会退出市场。赢家将是那些广告和促销支出能够超出竞争对手的大品牌。而那些产品多元化的企业也会在竞争中占据有利位置。LVMH虽然手表和珠宝业务表现疲弱，但公司旗下时装和香水品牌路易•威登和迪奥(Christian Dior)的强劲业绩却足以将其抵消。烈酒业巨头帝亚吉欧(Diageo)和保乐力加(Pernod Ricard)也应能取得不错的业绩，他们高档品牌业务的亏损可部分被公司较廉价主流品牌业务的盈利所抵消。企业是否具有全球规模也很重要。长期来看，奢侈品公司业务增长的主要推动力还应来自新兴市场国家。

但最大的赢家将是那些能够顺应时势重新定位自身品牌的公司。再见了，珠光宝气。你好，简朴素雅。

Molly Neal / Simon Nixon